michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 People at work are attributing the lack of snow with climate change. Some heated debates lately in the break room and while working. Funny how easily people can forget the tornado watches of January 7-8, 2008. Ain't even that either. I'm a big advocate of the F2 tornado on December 12, 1946 just a half hour drive southwest of here. Luckily I havent heard that, but Im sure its being brought up. *sigh*. Yup, this lack of snow is due to climate change. Mind asking some of them what they attribute all the above normal snow in recent years to? Because climate change doesnt happen overnight. (actually lol they may be the same ones who attributed heavy snow in recent winters to the climate change, to some EVERYTHING that happens in the weather is climate change lol). December 1881, 1889, and 1877 are by far the warmest Decembers our area has ever seen, in Dec 1889 NOT ONE flake of snow fell all month. Bring that up in the break room too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The two/three Winters that we might be closing in on following could very well be 31-32, 71-72, and maybe 66-67 (tornado outbreak in Chicagoland, followed shortly thereafter by the historic blizzard). I think I threw out 1917-1918,1913-1914, and 1975-1976 in one of our analog threads with the above Winters... some are seeming like a good match and some are obviously not. You win some, you lose some. As to this pattern, I'd be willing to bet many around here don't have an official 1" snowfall until around 1/10-1/17/2012. That would be my magic range to keep an eye on. Interesting combo, on a purely sensible weather level, those 3 have very little in common here. 31-32 was literally the year without a winter (no real snow until Feb) and mega torch....66-67 had some torches but tons of snow/snowcover...71-72 was a pretty putrid snow year but nowhere near as torchy or barren as 31-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Man, what a disaster the EURO is through D10. I'm putting all my eggs in the "climo" basket, which dictates that this pattern has to flip at some point, but with each passing day it's hard not to get progressively discouraged. I had more snow to this date in 2001-02. Pattern will flip. It always does. The million dollar question is when? Of course the answer for just about all of us is "not soon enough!". Had no measurable snow at this point in 2001 or 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Best part about this "winter" is going back and looking at all the Winter outlooks. Its quite comical. One started a trend and everyone followed, sort of like a heard of sheep. It just shows NO HUMAN is smarter then mother nature! She does what she wants. unfortunately at this point shooting for average may be a challenge. Winters similar to this craptastic winter: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2006 and 2009,. Average in those crap starts: 46.9" not including 1998/99: 40.6". Seasons total 7.7" so far. Its got to change at some point. Mother nature has tendencies to even things out. It cannot stay like this for 4-5 months straight. Common sense would think that change will occur but when? My feeling once it changes it will get very cold for a long time but what do I know.... This was my positive statement The only 2 outlooks that had a mild Dec were Chicagowx's and Bill Deedlers. Deedler forecast a heavy backloaded winter as being a very strong possibility. 1997 actually had ok Nov/Dec snow (mainly Nov of all things), and Jan wasnt awful. It was thereafter that winter was horrible. But of all the years you posted, 1997-98 was the worst overall winter. We have a very decent shot at hitting average snowfall here, because we arent that far off our average to date, and have more than 80% of our seasonal snowfall to come after December 20th. But for places up north, Im thinking their chances of above normal snow are very slim, simply because of the start. Keep in mind, hitting average snowfall isnt everything to a winter lover of course. Some years can have above average snowfall but never sustain a snowcover and other years have below normal snowfall but constant snowcover. So while I see above normal total snowfall as a likelihood for SE MI, I think the cross country skiier (who doesnt pay close attention to wx stats) will be sorely disappointed after last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm not a big fan of back loaded winters. I've actually become somewhat excited for the warmth that March has shown us the last few years. Something about being in a university town on st.pattys when theres no snow and 10+ degree weather (50F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Snowing pretty good in Madison, no accumulation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Huh? We have sunshine over here.. Looks like snow here maybe for Christmas...depends...NAM was not showing anything, GFS was pumping out an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Huh? We have sunshine over here.. Looks like snow here maybe for Christmas...depends...NAM was not showing anything, GFS was pumping out an inch. It's already pretty much gone. I'm really hoping for that sunshine to get here later, cloud cover with such weak sunlight to begin with is harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Light rain here...one step closer to the wettest year on record I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Keep in mind, hitting average snowfall isnt everything to a winter lover of course. wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 wrong again. Joe..I have nothing but respect for you but I guess in a way he is right (snowfreak) because everyone is different and has different expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Pouring rain like made with a rumble of thunder... Ahhh how nice if this was ripping snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Disaster winter 2011/2012 rolls on with the 12z GFS, so awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Disaster winter 2011/2012 rolls on with the 12z GFS, so awful. This horrible pattern with the CA cut-off low/trough finally breaks around 120 hours at least. Maybe some accumulating snow tomorrow too for parts of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 61 degrees and full sunshine here in downtown Cleveland. I admit, this feels really nice. But wow, this is December 21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Disaster winter 2011/2012 rolls on with the 12z GFS, so awful. 99.9% awful.. Fantasy land shows some potential for the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wow, it literally got sunny for only 1 minute and then the next big cloud mass moved in. This is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 12z Euro has a little something around Tue/Wed. Temps look marginal though. I think it's at the point where I'm figuring whichever model looks worst is going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm not a big fan of back loaded winters. I've actually become somewhat excited for the warmth that March has shown us the last few years. Something about being in a university town on st.pattys when theres no snow and 10+ degree weather (50F) amen! I live in a small university town as well.....nothing like that first sunny 70 degree day in march to bring out all those sun-starved bikini coeds. assuming that's what you meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ugh, f**k this. 12z Euro; Next. 2012-13, here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wow, it literally got sunny for only 1 minute and then the next big cloud mass moved in. This is horrible. Yikes, you're really missing the Florida sun. So, let's see...would you rather have 40F and fog/low clouds/drizzle, or -5F with a 10" snowpack under beautiful sunny skies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ugh, f**k this. 12z Euro; Next. 2012-13, here we come. WEEZ IZ DUMED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 41F here... Feels so mild out there. Very little wind helps. A lot of times it gets "warm", but there is a 30 mph south wind attached... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like a window of opportunity for some light lake effect precip in northwest IN (possibly eastern Cook county IL?) early Friday. Setup is marginal with lake-850 mb delta T no better than the mid teens but anything is worth mentioning in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ugh, f**k this. 12z Euro; Next. 2012-13, here we come. absolutely unreal.... congrats Alaska. Winter is no where to be found.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ugh, f**k this. 12z Euro; Next. 2012-13, here we come. Happy winter solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nothing says winter like a slight risk of severe weather for Ohio... Btw some of you could dial back the trolling... just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Disaster winter 2011/2012 rolls on with the 12z GFS, so awful. WEEZ IZ DUMED! absolutely unreal.... congrats Alaska. Winter is no where to be found.... model watching = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 model watching = Classic movie my friend. Although I don't keep waking up to Sonny and Cher. Thank god for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 41F here... Feels so mild out there. Very little wind helps. A lot of times it gets "warm", but there is a 30 mph south wind attached... This weather has been awesome this week for fishing the big lake from shore. Fish are stacked a long with the bait fish, its like fishing in barrel at times almost anywhere you go along the lakefront. Just an amazing world class trout fishery in downtown mke. Hopefully this beautiful weather holds for Christmas Day and we'll take the niece down to get her new fishing pole line wet and hopefully there is some south winds a blowing to whip a kite around. so immune to no snow & cold now that I don't care if it ever snows or gets cold again until next winter in se wi. Furnace has kicked on 2 times that I know of in the last ten days and with nothing but 30's to near 40 it won't be firing up much in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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