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December 2011 General Discussion/Obs Part 2


Chicago Storm

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So Harry in a way 66-67 does in deed match.  We had the weird cut-off low system which produced some surprise snows in Michigan/Indiana/Ohio that was late November correct?  Then basically warmish in December with a few stabs here and there of chilly air but no real snow to speak of.  Hmmm... but that may have been an El Nino year which, of course, is opposite of what we have now with La Nina...but pattern overall sounds/seems familiar.  And from what you say 1971-72 matches up well.  I'll have to research these two Winters in particular for more information and see how it turned out around here.

It would be very disappointing to have a Winter basically end on 2/1, cruddy.

66-67 was either neutral or weak Nina.

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So Harry in a way 66-67 does in deed match. We had the weird cut-off low system which produced some surprise snows in Michigan/Indiana/Ohio that was late November correct? Then basically warmish in December with a few stabs here and there of chilly air but no real snow to speak of. Hmmm... but that may have been an El Nino year which, of course, is opposite of what we have now with La Nina...but pattern overall sounds/seems familiar. And from what you say 1971-72 matches up well. I'll have to research these two Winters in particular for more information and see how it turned out around here.

It would be very disappointing to have a Winter basically end on 2/1, cruddy.

66-67 was either neutral or weak Nina.

'66-67 was neutral, with a DJF reading of -0.4

'71-72 was a 2nd season Nina, with a DJF reading of -0.7

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So Harry in a way 66-67 does in deed match. We had the weird cut-off low system which produced some surprise snows in Michigan/Indiana/Ohio that was late November correct? Then basically warmish in December with a few stabs here and there of chilly air but no real snow to speak of. Hmmm... but that may have been an El Nino year which, of course, is opposite of what we have now with La Nina...but pattern overall sounds/seems familiar. And from what you say 1971-72 matches up well. I'll have to research these two Winters in particular for more information and see how it turned out around here.

It would be very disappointing to have a Winter basically end on 2/1, cruddy.

66-67 was almost borderline Nina but the peak was in late winter/early spring. TM Peaked at -0.6 in FMA .. Unsure what the deal was with the late Nov event? Someone else might know? Only storms i have heard mentioned is the Blizzard and the early November event. But yeah that December kinda sucked. Had a crap load of rain leading up to that torch and then not much of anything through the rest of the month except those couple small snow events.

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Without the blizzard Jan 67 was craptastic from a winter viewpoint.

post-90-0-96432300-1324450052.png

Ofcourse with such warmth we have more potential juice available too and thus a needed ingrediant for a massive storm/blizzard etc which we got. One of the few reason i don't mind * real* torches like we had that Jan.

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Cyclone, who is the snow God and how do we do a ritual dance to him/her? :)

I need at least 8" to make up for this slow start.

I wish I knew man. I wasn't all that surprised to see a slow start to the season after the last several Decembers, but to see this relentless pattern persist into late December and January is kind of mind blowing. It'd be one thing if it was a local thing, but this is pretty much CONUS wide east of the Rockies.

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66-67 was almost borderline Nina but the peak was in late winter/early spring. TM Peaked at -0.6 in FMA .. Unsure what the deal was with the late Nov event? Someone else might know? Only storms i have heard mentioned is the Blizzard and the early November event. But yeah that December kinda sucked. Had a crap load of rain leading up to that torch and then not much of anything through the rest of the month except those couple small snow events.

If only the damn low would move away from Alaska and allow some ridging up into that area we could flip this pattern. Gotta get the North Pacific to play as you said earlier.

Perhaps the sun could wake up a bit more too and get more active and play some action into this as well.

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I wish I knew man. I wasn't all that surprised to see a slow start to the season after the last several Decembers, but to see this relentless pattern persist into late December and January is kind of mind blowing. It'd be one thing if it was a local thing, but this is pretty much CONUS wide east of the Rockies.

I just feel like its gotta flip and give someone something. Question is who gets it? I'd like to see a better snow pack laid down to our NW up into Canada to make a way for the cold air to dump down on us. Cold air loves that negative feedback on the ground. I'd sacrifice another storm if it could do this trick. But until that Gulf of Alaska low goes away on sabbatical we are gonna have problems...and when it did go away briefly a few weeks back we got some cold.

I'm feeling this will all change but the longer it goes, the less Winter is left to recover and get closer to climatology on snows. Of course if you get a couple nice snowstorms you can quickly make up deficits. Not everyone is going to get in on those, though, and be left holding the 'ole pooper scooper for a seasonal total.

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If only the damn low would move away from Alaska and allow some ridging up into that area we could flip this pattern. Gotta get the North Pacific to play as you said earlier.

Perhaps the sun could wake up a bit more too and get more active and play some action into this as well.

Yep. As long as that feature/crap is there i am not gonna get excited about anything. And well going by 66-67 that did not happen ( pattern change ) till the Blizzard. :yikes: Feb and March and even April was pretty decent. IF the pay off was to be the same i could live with waiting but as Hooiser said this board would probably go into full meltdown mode before then. lol

And yeah the sun is our best hope for now.

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This pattern is absolutely pathetic. We may miss another storm again that will just pass south of us that has potential for at least 2-4 inches. Ugh:(

This winter thus far - no explanation needed

2010-11 - total snowfall was very good but we got screwed out of every big storm

2009-10 - winter from hell

2008-09 - winter ends in early Feb after fantastic start.

Maybe we're not over the curse of the phantom UKIE bomb (Feb 09).

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Best part about this "winter" is going back and looking at all the Winter outlooks. Its quite comical. One started a trend and everyone followed, sort of like a heard of sheep. It just shows NO HUMAN is smarter then mother nature! She does what she wants.

unfortunately at this point shooting for average may be a challenge. Winters similar to this craptastic winter: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2006 and 2009,. Average in those crap starts: 46.9" not including 1998/99: 40.6". Seasons total 7.7" so far.

Its got to change at some point. Mother nature has tendencies to even things out. It cannot stay like this for 4-5 months straight. Common sense would think that change will occur but when? My feeling once it changes it will get very cold for a long time but what do I know.... This was my positive statement

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Man, what a disaster the EURO is through D10.

I'm putting all my eggs in the "climo" basket, which dictates that this pattern has to flip at some point, but with each passing day it's hard not to get progressively discouraged. I had more snow to this date in 2001-02. :(

But would you believe it if it looked good at day 10? Knowing what you know about the current pattern.

2001-02. Ugh.

LAF had 3" of snow total entering late February...and then two snowstorms (one in late Feb and one in late Mar) helped that season "save face". I didn't live here at the time (was in Kankakee), but that winter still ranks as one of the biggest disasters for me.

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But would you believe it if it looked good at day 10? Knowing what you know about the current pattern.

2001-02. Ugh.

LAF had 3" of snow total entering late February...and then two snowstorms (one in late Feb and one in late Mar) helped that season "save face". I didn't live here at the time (was in Kankakee), but that winter still ranks as one of the biggest disasters for me.

1997/98 was beyond a disaster for SEMI. I had 7-8" in early December and 20" to finish out that year! :yikes:

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Just talking IMBY only, but there have been rougher starts to winter in terms of snowfall. Here's the years that had less snowfall through the end of December than we currently have (3.5").

1901,1912, 1913, 1918, 1922, 1923, 1933, 1936, 1940, 1946, 1949, 1954, 1957, 1962, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1978, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1991, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2006

That's a fairly long list, though it's not like this is a snowy place to begin with. But that's my pep talk to myself, that things have been worse locally in the past.

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But would you believe it if it looked good at day 10? Knowing what you know about the current pattern.

2001-02. Ugh.

LAF had 3" of snow total entering late February...and then two snowstorms (one in late Feb and one in late Mar) helped that season "save face". I didn't live here at the time (was in Kankakee), but that winter still ranks as one of the biggest disasters for me.

Prior to 2009-10, 2001-02 was my archetype for a "disaster winter".

Aside from a 6" snowstorm on the 31st of January, and 3.5" on the 14th of December, there was no snowfall greater than 1" during the core winter months DJF. So basically, I shovelled twice during the heart of the winter season. :( Then we got a little redemption in March and April but by then the damage had been done.

Not sure of the causation behind that craptastic winter. I think Harry mentioned it had something to do with the -QBO. I know it was a La Nada as far as ENSO is concerned.

1997-98 wasn't that bad here oddly enough.

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Prior to 2009-10, 2001-02 was my archetype for a "disaster winter".

Aside from a 6" snowstorm on the 31st of January, and 3.5" on the 14th of December, there was no snowfall greater than 1" during the core winter months DJF. So basically, I shovelled twice during the heart of the winter season. :( Then we got a little redemption in March and April but by then the damage had been done.

Not sure of the causation behind that craptastic winter. I think Harry mentioned it had something to do with the -QBO. I know it was a La Nada as far as ENSO is concerned.

1997-98 wasn't that bad here oddly enough.

Most storms from 1994 through 1998 storms always missed SEMI. Always missed. We had 1 direct hit (March 20th 1996)

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Prior to 2009-10, 2001-02 was my archetype for a "disaster winter".

Aside from a 6" snowstorm on the 31st of January, and 3.5" on the 14th of December, there was no snowfall greater than 1" during the core winter months DJF. So basically, I shovelled twice during the heart of the winter season. :( Then we got a little redemption in March and April but by then the damage had been done.

Not sure of the causation behind that craptastic winter. I think Harry mentioned it had something to do with the -QBO. I know it was a La Nada as far as ENSO is concerned.

1997-98 wasn't that bad here oddly enough.

2001-02 was interesting, in that the indices looked good for December...but it still torched. After the the New Year, they all went to the dark side. I think what burns in my memory was that winter was being hyped, by almost everyone on WWBB and beyond, as going to be cold and snowy. It was anything but obviously.

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2001-02 was interesting, in that the indices looked good for December...but it still torched. After the the New Year, they all went to the dark side. I think what burns in my memory was that winter was being hyped, by almost everyone on WWBB and beyond, as going to be cold and snowy. It was anything but obviously.

Replace WWBB with Americanwx and that statement could describe this winter. Although, I have to keep reminding myself, it's only December 21.

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Replace WWBB with Americanwx and that statement could describe this winter. Although, I have to keep reminding myself, it's only December 21.

lol, I was going to say that but I didn't want to sound too "negative". Have to hope for better times down the road...whenever that may be.

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