michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The sun came out for 15 seconds and I got really excited. Same here, it tried for a few seconds then went away. But I actually enjoy and prefer the slate gray skies from Nov-Mar, even when theres no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I think (operative word) that climate data recording techniques are standardized worldwide, thanks to the WMO? WRT the U of T station though, lately things have been done kinda half-assed. There was talk from Environment Canada about closing it down due to lack of money, but it was saved because of enough petitioning from certain people. However, the quality of data might still have suffered due to that lack of money. That's my recollection of the story Toronto4 told me. It was a couple of years ago though so I could be wrong. That's correct. Each fall, Environment Canada has to scramble to find the money to fund the manual winter weather observing program for several stations like downtown Toronto, Kitchener-Waterloo airport, London airport and Thunder Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just the reality of living in the Great Lakes; both extremes are generally unfavorable for us. We need NAO and AO closer to neutral than either extreme, which is difficult to maintain for an extended period of time. Our snowiest months actually tend to be slightly positive NAOs, but the further S and E you go, the more negative you want that NAO to be. Being a LES fan... I prefer either setup really. A neutral NAO is probably best for most of the great lakes, but negative seems to bring with it heavy LES. Howell, MI doesnt rake in much more then 15 inches a year of LES... but my wintertime hangouts in NE lower and the UP do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah, that was the headline storm of 2008-09. Lotta moderate events that Dec/Jan but nothing massive, at least around here. Haven't had a 20cm/8"+ event since 2007-08 here. Long long time. Somethings gotta give sooner or later for Toronto. I knew you had a horrible 2009-10, but didnt realize its been 2007-08 since ur last 8"+ storm. We had two 8"+ storms in 2008-09, 1 in 2009-10, and 2 in 2010-11. Im calling it, you get one if not two 8"+ storms before April 15th . If this does work out to be a classic La Nina, the Great Lakes should see a little less nickel and diming and a little more bombing than a neutral winter (less days with snow falling, but heavier snow when it does fall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just the reality of living in the Great Lakes; both extremes are generally unfavorable for us. We need NAO and AO closer to neutral than either extreme, which is difficult to maintain for an extended period of time. Our snowiest months actually tend to be slightly positive NAOs, but the further S and E you go, the more negative you want that NAO to be. Bingo. Snowiest months and Ive noticed some of our biggest snowstorms happen with a slightly positive NAO. You get a strongly -NAO, you have to pray for clippers and hope you have some snowcover already present, all the big action is south and east of us. Of course you get a raging +NAO, obviously that is not good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Bingo. Snowiest months and Ive noticed some of our biggest snowstorms happen with a slightly positive NAO. You get a strongly -NAO, you have to pray for clippers and hope you have some snowcover already present, all the big action is south and east of us. Of course you get a raging +NAO, obviously that is not good either. Based on m calculations, a slightly -NAO/-AO anomaly is best preffered for the Great Lakes region to keep the anomalies cold enuff for snowstorms than rain storms. An overly powered -NAO/-AO anomaly can be horrible esp if its extremely West Based in nature like in 2009-10 and you dont want a raging +NAO/AO either, lol. At the same time a neutral PNA/-EPO with a slightly weak SE Ridge anomaly is the best ticket for major snowstorms across the Great lakes region. Jan 1994, Dec 1970/Jan 1971 are good examples, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z GEFS, further West than the OP but it destroys that weak wave across Texas lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z gfs looks good and its 164 hrs in for a pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Based on m calculations, a slightly -NAO/-AO anomaly is best preffered for the Great Lakes region to keep the anomalies cold enuff for snowstorms than rain storms. An overly powered -NAO/-AO anomaly can be horrible esp if its extremely West Based in nature like in 2009-10 and you dont want a raging +NAO/AO either, lol. At the same time a neutral PNA/-EPO with a slightly weak SE Ridge anomaly is the best ticket for major snowstorms across the Great lakes region. Jan 1994, Dec 1970/Jan 1971 are good examples, perhaps? You are probably right but this is definitely not my area of expertise. There are so many different combinations, Im not actually sure which works best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Somethings gotta give sooner or later for Toronto. I knew you had a horrible 2009-10, but didnt realize its been 2007-08 since ur last 8"+ storm. We had two 8"+ storms in 2008-09, 1 in 2009-10, and 2 in 2010-11. Im calling it, you get one if not two 8"+ storms before April 15th . If this does work out to be a classic La Nina, the Great Lakes should see a little less nickel and diming and a little more bombing than a neutral winter (less days with snow falling, but heavier snow when it does fall). Ha, thanks for the words of encouragement. At this point though, I'd take a nice 4-6 week period of clippers and miller-B storms, so long as it resulted in a nice wintry feel and look. The bigger (8"+) storms will come. I went almost three years (Jan 21-22, 2005 to December 15-16, 2007) without a true 6"+ storm and then I got 6 of them in one winter (2007-08). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 You are probably right but this is definitely not my area of expertise. There are so many different combinations, Im not actually sure which works best. Yeah, my guess is it's not really a question of which combos work best, but which ones tend to work out at least moderately well. I guess we at least have the chance of getting some good snowstorms if the NAO is negative (ala Dec 2000), as long as the blocking is East based, but the chances with a positive NAO are probably not great east of the Mississippi unless you're in the dead of winter and it is close to neutral. Edit: I'm not very good with knowledge of the AO, so I just tend to lump the AO and NAO together because they often correlate (although I know it is not a good idea overall). For these purposes, I'm mostly referring to the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Ha, thanks for the words of encouragement. At this point though, I'd take a nice 4-6 week period of clippers and miller-B storms, so long as it resulted in a nice wintry feel and look. The bigger (8"+) storms will come. I went almost three years (Jan 21-22, 2005 to December 15-16, 2007) without a true 6"+ storm and then I got 6 of them in one winter (2007-08). I went from March 22, 1996 to January 1, 1999 without a 6" storm (just two storms over 4.5" in that 30 month span), of course that sort of thing was frighteningly the norm in our decade of futility, the 1940s. Dont know how Id handle that now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 For some reason I have the feeling that the blocking will form later this Winter then extend into Spring for some below average temps in March and April. Most of the time, the atmosphere seems to balance itself out. In 01-02, March had some brutal cold then May was very chilly. 06-07 had an extremely cold February and then April had another round of extended cold and snow. Watch next Winter be a moderate El Nino with no blocking. lol That would probably be worse than what we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Ha, thanks for the words of encouragement. At this point though, I'd take a nice 4-6 week period of clippers and miller-B storms, so long as it resulted in a nice wintry feel and look. The bigger (8"+) storms will come. I went almost three years (Jan 21-22, 2005 to December 15-16, 2007) without a true 6"+ storm and then I got 6 of them in one winter (2007-08). Clipper express equals deep off trail boondocking on my snowmobile in northern Michigan. Sent from my ADR6425LVW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I went from March 22, 1996 to January 1, 1999 without a 6" storm (just two storms over 4.5" in that 30 month span), of course that sort of thing was frighteningly the norm in our decade of futility, the 1940s. Dont know how Id handle that now! First Day of Spring storm 1998. 5-11" in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 First Day of Spring storm 1998. 5-11" in the area I wish lol. Had no idea that storm was that good north of Detroit. 2.2" here, 1.9" at DTW. Also a coating of ice before turning to snow. Actually have a pic from 3-21-98. I put a few pics from 1996-2003 on wunderground a while back (I joined wunderground in 2004, which is when I regularly started posting pics). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Pretty cool visible satellite loop this afternoon over the Midwest. Snow has melted very quickly over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. I drove to Chicago yesterday. When approaching the snow cover(near cyclone's town) the temp was 33. When the snow cover was at its peak, between Dixon and Dekalb, the temp had dropped 9 degrees. When I drove back to Iowa later in the afternoon nearly all the snow was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Apparently, per Ji's thread in the main forum, JB has cancelled January. Meltdowns incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Apparently, per Ji's thread in the main forum, JB has cancelled January. Meltdowns incoming. The thing with pushing winter further and further back is by the time it starts in full swing some of us will be yearning for it to be spring/severe weather season. I know it is not a popular topic in December but if the winter will be horribly bad at least the severe weather season should start earlier up here, which it hasn't for several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Apparently, per Ji's thread in the main forum, JB has cancelled January. Meltdowns incoming. Ji said JB said January will be the warmest since 2006 south of I-80 in the east. I dont know who should worry less, those of us north of I-80, or those south of I-80 knowing JB is always wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I drove to Chicago yesterday. When approaching the snow cover(near cyclone's town) the temp was 33. When the snow cover was at its peak, between Dixon and Dekalb, the temp had dropped 9 degrees. When I drove back to Iowa later in the afternoon nearly all the snow was gone. Yeah when I woke up and saw my brother's text about the 3-4" in Dixon I halfway expected to lookout and see a little white lol. Alas, nada. Gotta love those steep snow gradients though. I know we've benefited from some of those narrow bands in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I wish lol. Had no idea that storm was that good north of Detroit. 2.2" here, 1.9" at DTW. Also a coating of ice before turning to snow. Actually have a pic from 3-21-98. I put a few pics from 1996-2003 on wunderground a while back (I joined wunderground in 2004, which is when I regularly started posting pics). This is what remember and I remember very well. It was a double barrel Low. first one came through just brought rain to the area. Rain changing to Snow total of 1-2 inches. End result 10-12" in NE Oakland with driven Snow with winds of 30-40mph+ caked my parents 2 story colonial I could not see out my bedroom window. Back roads were shutdown for 2-3 days with drifts up to 10 feet! EPIC to say the least the Radar was as sexy as it could get. LOW pressure system shot up from New Orleans ended up just East Of Lake St.Clair. Radar looked like a hurricane truly a Beautiful event. Lansing recorded 0" thats how tight the storm was. I actually emailed Bill Deedler about this storm It couldn't remember amounts that big in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This is what remember and I remember very well. It was a double barrel Low. first one came through just brought rain to the area. Rain changing to Snow total of 1-2 inches. End result 10-12" in NE Oakland with driven Snow with winds of 30-40mph+ caked my parents 2 story colonial I could not see out my bedroom window. Back roads were shutdown for 2-3 days with drifts up to 10 feet! EPIC to say the least the Radar was as sexy as it could get. LOW pressure system shot up from New Orleans ended up just East Of Lake St.Clair. Radar looked like a hurricane truly a Beautiful event. Lansing recorded 0" thats how tight the storm was. I actually emailed Bill Deedler about this storm It couldn't remember amounts that big in my neck of the woods. Sounds very similar to March 20, 1996, a storm that also slammed NE Oakland. Had 7" imby and 5.8" at DTW, by far best of the cold, dry winter. An EXTREMELY caking snow as well. I remember I couldnt see out the window either. Some lightning reported in the area, lots of power outages, double digit snow amounts north of Detroit, and only 1-3" was forecast. Meanwhile, Mar 21, 1998 was just a run of the mill 2" wet snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Sounds very similar to March 20, 1996, a storm that also slammed NE Oakland. Had 7" imby and 5.8" at DTW, by far best of the cold, dry winter. An EXTREMELY caking snow as well. I remember I couldnt see out the window either. Some lightning reported in the area, lots of power outages, double digit snow amounts north of Detroit, and only 1-3" was forecast. Meanwhile, Mar 21, 1998 was just a run of the mill 2" wet snow here. Could have been 1996. cuz 97/98 was a bad winter. 27.5" ::yikes""" found some facts.. In fact it was 1996 http://meteorology.blog.wku.edu/2008/01/30/potent-midwest-snowstorm-then-mild-through-mid-february/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This is what remember and I remember very well. It was a double barrel Low. first one came through just brought rain to the area. Rain changing to Snow total of 1-2 inches. End result 10-12" in NE Oakland with driven Snow with winds of 30-40mph+ caked my parents 2 story colonial I could not see out my bedroom window. Back roads were shutdown for 2-3 days with drifts up to 10 feet! EPIC to say the least the Radar was as sexy as it could get. LOW pressure system shot up from New Orleans ended up just East Of Lake St.Clair. Radar looked like a hurricane truly a Beautiful event. Lansing recorded 0" thats how tight the storm was. I actually emailed Bill Deedler about this storm It couldn't remember amounts that big in my neck of the woods. Are you describing the March 9th, 1998 or March 21st, 1998 storm? Sounds more like the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Are you describing the March 9th, 1998 or March 21st, 1998 storm? Sounds more like the former. neither./..lol More like the March 20th 1996 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 neither./..lol More like the March 20th 1996 storm ah gotchya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You gotta love those point-n-clicks: Tuesday: Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow between 10am and 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm. High near 41. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. What a crappy day tomorrow is shaping up to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You gotta love those point-n-clicks: Tuesday: Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow between 10am and 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm. High near 41. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. What a crappy day tomorrow is shaping up to be. I wish you luck on getting all 4 precipitation types tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.