dmc76 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm just baffled with the majority of these predictions. Your a smart guy and in fact the majority of the patrons on this forum are..but in a hobby or craft where 2 weeks is la la land, it makes no sense to bank everything you got on a hunch. Climo is your crystal ball not the fooking GFS. Hahahha you never made predictions! Your so full of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I think it probably was aimed at you. He posted a good thread showing how slow starts in Chicago tend to lead to below average winters in terms of snow. No, not always, but that is the tendency. I would guess that the same holds true for most other areas that get off to a slow start. Obviously this doesn't apply to Detroit this year since they aren't off to a slow start. No. It was a general thought...not trying to "attack" anyone...just the idea. Again, lesson learned by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Hahahha you never made predictions! Your so full of it Actually, I can't find the exact post, but I think he made a prediction at one point early on that SEMI would see average or below average snowfall....something about La Nina being "too much to handle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 No. It was a general thought...not trying to "attack" anyone...just the idea. Again, lesson learned by me. I guess I can't read your mind even if it seems like it sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I guess I can't read your mind even if it seems like it sometimes. Well I'm not in the business to "attack" posters I like and respect...such as Josh. I mean not to go too deep into it, because it's really not necessary, but I don't want him to think that way about what I said. I guess my post was too harsh, my bad. Alas, it'll be whatever it'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 They may be just as annoying but they are needed to put a dent in what is an overwhelming amount of pessimism. Theres definitely such a thing as pattern recognition, but many (not all) of the pessimistic posts have nothing to do with the poster recognizing a pattern, THAT is a fact as well. Another fact, just 15% of the seasons average snow should have fallen so far for Chicago/Detroit. And idk if that was aimed at me or not, but you are preaching to the choir with "some need a lesson in bad winter climo". I know my climo up, down, and sideways. My past experience on these boards has shown that to many, regardless of where they live, a 2-week period of boring weather or near normal snowfall equates to "worst winter ever" or "perpetual screwzone". I knew that when we actually got a bad winter, the boards would be ready to practically self destruct. Its clearly unwelcome to be an optimist on these boards, and I can tell you this. Theres been a few of us over the years, and we have been winning (remember, pessimism has always ruled the boards, even in 2007-08). But if the winter does end up a dud, guarentee sparty and I will be getting tons of I-told-you-so comments and such, how foolish we were to think wed see a lot of snow, etc etc. Some here just cannot handle people who are 'jokingly pessimist' and/or people who like to vent. There are a good amount of people who come across as pessimist on these forums that are really just making light of a miserable situation. Instead of just having fun with it you seem to take these posts so serious. Most of them I am just laughing at and enjoying. There is not one person here that can truly cancel winter. It is winter whether the weather acts like it or not. Venting is normal. Listen to the sports radio. 24/7 of venting people!!!! The funny thing is your posts spend a lot of time venting about people venting abut the weather Right now the weather SUCKs with some people going to vent, some going to overreact, some going to joke, some going to look to the future for hope, and so on. Like I tell my kids: You get what you get and you don't throw a fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Actually a pretty decent day here today. Temps in the mid 40s with some sun. Hopefully we can get a few tenths of wet snow tomorrow to get us over the 1" mark for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Weather drama is a lot less annoying when there's snow to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 With all this warmth, there is the *possibility* it bounces back just as hard the other way... although that might be spring at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Weather drama is a lot less annoying when there's snow to track. I've been following the storm out in the Plains today. Actually pretty uplifting to track something like this in real-time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 lol DID FURTHER TWEAKING TO THE CIG AND WIND FORECAST...EXPECT WINDSTO CONTINUE TO FLIP AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RUC/NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE IT OCCURRING IN THE 21-22Z HOUR. MKE AND RAC HAVE ALREADY FLIPPED FROM 310 TO 350 TO 030 OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE ENW NEXT...FOLLOWED BY UGN...PWK AND THEN ORD/MDW. CURRENTLY SEE A RARE DECEMBER LAKE BREEZE ON TORD...AND TIMING TROUGH ORD/MDW LOOKS TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH EARLIER THINKING...AND AROUND THE 2130 HOUR. OTHERWISE CIG TRENDS DO NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF LOW END MVFR...AND TRENDED THAT WAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 With all this warmth, there is the *possibility* it bounces back just as hard the other way... although that might be spring at this point Yep I think Josh talked about this earlier, in even the ****tiest of winters ALL of the March/Springs ALWAYS had some good snow storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I've been following the storm out in the Plains today. Actually pretty uplifting to track something like this in real-time again. I have been as well... Ulysses, Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The sun came out for 15 seconds and I got really excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I've been following the storm out in the Plains today. Actually pretty uplifting to track something like this in real-time again. That's about all there is to track... I've been reading the thread in the main forum, it's a shame not many people post here that live in the area. Some of the twitter pictures are awesome though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I remember all the talk at the end of the 2009-10 winter of how we might be heading into a persistent multi-year -AO/-NAO regime. I don't know if that thinking is still valid, and our current +AO/+NAO is merely a temporary reprieve, but I remember dreading the prospects of the type of uber-blocking we had in 09/10 occurring on a regular basis. And now, in Dec 2011, I'd run buck naked down the middle of the street just to get a fraction of that blocking back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 lol Lol, yeah it cooled off on the northshore this afternoon. It's bad when you hear about lake breezes in December. Down to 38° at Kenosha's lake front now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 They may be just as annoying but they are needed to put a dent in what is an overwhelming amount of pessimism. Theres definitely such a thing as pattern recognition, but many (not all) of the pessimistic posts have nothing to do with the poster recognizing a pattern, THAT is a fact as well. Another fact, just 15% of the seasons average snow should have fallen so far for Chicago/Detroit. And idk if that was aimed at me or not, but you are preaching to the choir with "some need a lesson in bad winter climo". I know my climo up, down, and sideways. My past experience on these boards has shown that to many, regardless of where they live, a 2-week period of boring weather or near normal snowfall equates to "worst winter ever" or "perpetual screwzone". I knew that when we actually got a bad winter, the boards would be ready to practically self destruct. Its clearly unwelcome to be an optimist on these boards, and I can tell you this. Theres been a few of us over the years, and we have been winning (remember, pessimism has always ruled the boards, even in 2007-08). But if the winter does end up a dud, guarentee sparty and I will be getting tons of I-told-you-so comments and such, how foolish we were to think wed see a lot of snow, etc etc. I don't know about unwelcome. We all have an optimist side as well. I like to think I am a "realist" in that I try to take an objective approach to any storm, but if a storm is going to rip, optimism is most definitely welcome. There needs to be a balance though. One thing that irks me is unrealistic pessimism/optimism either way. Angrysummons used to anger me with his constant pessimism, but I have become used to it and even think it is mildly funny. Alek is another who I find hilarious with his pessimism. He is also a heckuva good forecaster for not having any type of formal training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 With all this warmth, there is the *possibility* it bounces back just as hard the other way... although that might be spring at this point well when it comes to blocking, that rubberband has snapped pretty violently. It's like an open raceway from western Canada to the north atlantic with that raging pos nao. Of course last winter at this time the block was so damn bully it actually hurt us here in ohio by keeping that vortex bottled and causing everything to circle around us. There are places in Ohio that are now +70 inches of rain for the year so far. The next rubberband to break is gonna be the onset of one hell of a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Anyone remember on this date back in 2008 we had that Great snowstorm that dumped a widespread 4+ inches. I recorded about 8" with that Winter storm. Amazing storm. It was also quite cold that day, high temp was only 12F. Hahah good times. After Feb 2009, things went downhill for us in the Great Lakes region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Pessimists have their place in the world just as optimists do. Not everybody has to be a positive person. Pessimists help to point out things that my be wrong, need fixed, or are a problem. I understand it's frustrating, because there are times when people just need to be thankful. But I don't think you should continue placing blame and your "war on pessimism". As Chicago stated, it's just as annoying. Fact is, it's been LONGER than just "two weeks". We have been in this pattern for months...and many places, like here, have barely had any. Trust me, it's not just weather fanatics like myself who have noticed. Many "normal folk" where I live are disappointed and even sad that it is so blah and brown outside. They ask me, "Where's the snow??" These are people who may not even like snow. So, yes this is ABNORMAL and frustrating. Why can't you just accept that as REALITY? I agree with this. It's well beyond a normal occurance going on right now. The pattern is quite locked in with any sustaining winter like weather unlikely. Some people like to parade the positive vibes when its all too obvious that nothing is really positive to grab whole of. Many locations are having unprecedented like warmth. All locations in northern Michigan are having a historically bad start to winter. It's going to be january 1st without a single 6 inch snow in places that average almost 200 inches per season. We all gravitate toward this board because of a common interest. It's natural we will look for sentiment during a very negative time within our hobby. Sent from my ADR6425LVW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Imagine if.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Imagine if.... Somehow, someway that ends up moving towards the Coast despite that HP anomaly in the Atlantic, wtf? If only those two could phase, ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Anyone remember on this date back in 2008 we had that Great snowstorm that dumped a widespread 4+ inches. I recorded about 8" with that Winter storm. Amazing storm. It was also quite cold that day, high temp was only 12F. Hahah good times. After Feb 2009, things went downhill for us in the Great Lakes region Yeah, that was the headline storm of 2008-09. Lotta moderate events that Dec/Jan but nothing massive, at least around here. Haven't had a 20cm/8"+ event since 2007-08 here. Long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I remember all the talk at the end of the 2009-10 winter of how we might be heading into a persistent multi-year -AO/-NAO regime. I don't know if that thinking is still valid, and our current +AO/+NAO is merely a temporary reprieve, but I remember dreading the prospects of the type of uber-blocking we had in 09/10 occurring on a regular basis. And now, in Dec 2011, I'd run buck naked down the middle of the street just to get a fraction of that blocking back. Just the reality of living in the Great Lakes; both extremes are generally unfavorable for us. We need NAO and AO closer to neutral than either extreme, which is difficult to maintain for an extended period of time. Our snowiest months actually tend to be slightly positive NAOs, but the further S and E you go, the more negative you want that NAO to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Somehow, someway that ends up moving towards the Coast despite that HP anomaly in the Atlantic, wtf? If only those two could phase, ugh Makes sense based on the H5 setup. Strung out, positively tilted trough. No amplification. I've got my hopes on the 2nd wave, but based on the 12z GGEM/EURO, even that might be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's not out of this world for a major pattern change to occurred at light speed. Now if it's mid/late jan and this pattern is still locked in...I'll be cheering on the finish line for the least snowiest winter in history for the GL area. Pessimist are welcome...could you imagine this forum with all weenies...lol it's a balancing act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah, that was the headline storm of 2008-09. Lotta moderate events that Dec/Jan but nothing massive, at least around here. Haven't had a 20cm/8"+ event since 2007-08 here. Long long time. March 2008 blizzard was the last true legit storm, 20+cm. But 2008-09 had quite a few decent storms. A storm or two in January 2009 delivered a good 6-7" in my area, not bad. March 2009 and 2010 were a crap shot. March 2011 brought it back haha with above normal snowfall in my area. I wouldn't mind a repeat of 1964-65 and 1959-60, sick winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just the reality of living in the Great Lakes; both extremes are generally unfavorable for us. We need NAO and AO closer to neutral than either extreme, which is difficult to maintain for an extended period of time. Our snowiest months actually tend to be slightly positive NAOs, but the further S and E you go, the more negative you want that NAO to be. I looked into some data a year or so back. IIRC, AO going strongly negative isn't as much as a deterrent to snow in the lakes as is a strong -NAO. However, in a pattern where the pacific is so unfavorable, an at least modestly, east based -NAO could work wonders. 2002-03 is a prime example of that. Although there was that W-E gradient across the Lakes that you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Makes sense based on the H5 setup. Strung out, positively tilted trough. No amplification. I've got my hopes on the 2nd wave, but based on the 12z GGEM/EURO, even that might be tough. The pattern doesnt really support a negatively tilted trough atm, too gradient. I'll give it another 2-3 days at most before coming to a possible conclusion with the secondary wave. Hopefully the first wave is something good, to finally bring back the White Christmas spirit in many, including me haha. Lets pull off another 2004 and 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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