December 2011 General Discussion/Obs Part 2

[Thundersnow12]

for sh*ts and gigs, its all snow here on the Euro at 168hr looking at the soundings lol sfc temps just above freezing.

[KokomoWX]

Not sure if anyone reads Bill's blog in Indy but he has been banging the drum for storms and a pattern flip.

http://www.indywx.com/2011/12/13/how-sweet-it-is-lots-of-winter-ahead-despite-what-you-may-hear/

[Geos]

for sh*ts and gigs, its all snow here on the Euro at 168hr looking at the soundings lol sfc temps just above freezing.

I've seen some decent accumulations at 33° and a couple events at 34° before. Sloppy, heart attack snow! Dynamic cooling is also possible with a storm like this.

[wisconsinwx]

Yup, good luck getting significant solar warming under a thick cloud shield with a 25° sun angle.

It's obviously not the difference it is in March or April, but I'm pretty sure if the precip maxed out in the middle of the night the precip would be mostly or more snow. Since this was a late-arriving winter, mid to late December is more like early December in terms of surface temps and subsequent sticking of the snow.

[mnweather]

It's obviously not the difference it is in March or April, but I'm pretty sure if the precip maxed out in the middle of the night the precip would be mostly or more snow. Since this was a late-arriving winter, mid to late December is more like early December in terms of surface temps and subsequent sticking of the snow.

I have seen snow at night and rain/mix during the day in late December. Christmas 09 storm a prime example up this way so it is possible. Not sure how common though.

[Chicago WX]

Remember that one time Moneyman claimed that the snow was sticking to the pavement but not the grass? Yeah.

[Hoosier]

It's obviously not the difference it is in March or April, but I'm pretty sure if the precip maxed out in the middle of the night the precip would be mostly or more snow.  Since this was a late-arriving winter, mid to late December is more like early December in terms of surface temps and subsequent sticking of the snow.

I still think you're overestimating the solar impact in latter December. If this storm is not a snowmaker I think it will be because the overall setup stunk regardless of time of day. Pattern has had above normal temps on average but there's been some cold days/nights thrown in. As long as temps are reasonably close to freezing and snow is heavy enough then it won't have much trouble sticking. Really too far out to be discussing this type of stuff. Let's see if there's actually a storm on the models as we get closer.

[Chicago Storm]

Remember that one time Moneyman claimed that the snow was sticking to the pavement but not the grass? Yeah.

lol

[Hoosier]

I have seen snow at night and rain/mix during the day in late December.  Christmas 09 storm a prime example up this way so it is possible.  Not sure how common though.

Can't remember everything about that event but have to be careful that there's not another reason like warm air advection happening to coincide with daytime.

[mnweather]

Can't remember everything about that event but have to be careful that there's not another reason like warm air advection happening to coincide with daytime.

It was most likely BL issues near lake superior.

[snowstormcanuck]

18z GFS is now suppression city. That's a new one.

[toronto blizzard]

18z GFS is now suppression city. That's a new one.

at the GFS. Just yesterday it was showing this system cutting up into minnesota and now now it goes OTS. No consistency. At least the EURO has been consistent and the 12z run was actually decent, but looked like we would change over to rain. Oh well still plenty of time though to see what will happen. Interesting times ahead! Can't remember the last time I said that.

[SpartyOn]

Remember that one time Moneyman claimed that the snow was sticking to the pavement but not the grass? Yeah.

Holy God what a ****ing ratard....LOL funny though

[Snowstorms]

at the GFS. Just yesterday it was showing this system cutting up into minnesota and now now it goes OTS. No consistency. At least the EURO has been consistent and the 12z run was actually decent, but looked like we would change over to rain. Oh well still plenty of time though to see what will happen. Interesting times ahead! Can't remember the last time I said that.

GFS-Global Fail System

The Euro is starting to get consistent but thus far it doesnt have a "whole" lot of back-up but the other foreign models are getting there. Hopefully we start seeing some consistency soon.

The models however do have a decent clipper this weekend. The JMA seems most robust.

[snowstormcanuck]

I know a couple of months ago I (as well as a couple of others) stated that I would take Boston's climo over our own. However, looking at some of their totals over the last 30-40 years, I noticed a lot of sub 20" totals.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bossnw.shtml

Sine 1890, I counted 12. That number balloons to 32 if you count sub 30" winters. In contrast, Toronto has only had 9 sub 30" winters since 1890, and our very first sub 20" winter just in 2009-10. I suppose if you put up pics and stats relating to the wicked SECS/HECS they get, I'd sway back the other way, but I gotta say, that's too much futility for my liking in Boston.

[turtlehurricane]

GFS-Global Fail System

The Euro is starting to get consistent but thus far it doesnt have a "whole" lot of back-up but the other foreign models are getting there. Hopefully we start seeing some consistency soon.

The models however do have a decent clipper this weekend. The JMA seems most robust.

I wouldn't blame the GFS, there's some pretty big Rossby wave breaking events over the CONUS in the next week, giving rise to lots of non-linearity. That's why the models keep flipping. We just gotta get past those events and the models will stabilize (unless we get more wave breaking after a week).

[michsnowfreak]

While I still dont trust the models as far as I can spit, it is nice to see that some of you are realizing that the light at the end of the tunnel may be coming

The last bits of snow melted this afternoon, actually from Nov 30-Dec 13th, we had some snow on the grass on all but Dec 3-5th (snow depth was: 1" on Nov 30th, T on Dec 1-2nd, 0 on Dec 3-5th, 2" on Dec 6th, T on Dec 7-8th, 1" on Dec 9-10th, T on Dec 11-13th). Its a pittance, but it was at least SOMETHING in this rotten pattern.

This was discussed in the other thread, I never answered. I think the chances of a white Christmas imby are 50/50, which is right on climo. Since 2000, we had 7 of the 11 Christmases "officially" be white at Detroit (an official White Christmas is 1"+ snow on the ground Christmas morning). 3 of the other 4 Christmases had a trace on the ground, so 2006 was the only completely bare Christmas since 2000. So while we are running on a pretty good stretch of white Christmases, we did horrible in the '90s, so its basically all about luck.

[daddylonglegs]

" Remember that one time Moneyman claimed that the snow was sticking to the pavement but not the grass? Yeah."

Was he released from prison yet?

Only factor I could see is ground temps...with areas like Saukville, West Bend still having ground temps around 65F, it'll be hard to pile up mountains of snow.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

JB's latest tweet.

http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/146674558412406784/photo/1

Looks like China's calling for a 93-94 repeat

[Snowstorms]

I wouldn't blame the GFS, there's some pretty big Rossby wave breaking events over the CONUS in the next week, giving rise to lots of non-linearity. That's why the models keep flipping. We just gotta get past those events and the models will stabilize (unless we get more wave breaking after a week).

Hmm, yes I understand what your portraying here but overall in terms of final verification results, the GFS has been doing fairly "bad" compared to the other models.

As for the storm potentials betwen the 18th-26th, I certainly think there will be something forming and progessing East. The teleconnection pattern doesn't really support a coastal atm or OTS thus I believe it will track inland but the HP anomalies surrouding the LP anomaly are key. We have a Weak Bermuda High in the Atlantic and decently strong HP anomalies North/NW of us. At the same time we have a Weak PNA Ridge across the West and strong AK vortex?

Jet steram pattern is too zonal.

Wats your thoughts?

[baroclinic_instability]

Hmm, yes I understand what your portraying here but overall in terms of final verification results, the GFS has been doing fairly "bad" compared to the other models.

As for the storm potentials betwen the 18th-26th, I certainly think there will be something forming and progessing East. The teleconnection pattern doesn't really support a coastal atm or OTS thus I believe it will track inland but the HP anomalies surrouding the LP anomaly are key. We have a Weak Bermuda High in the Atlantic and decently strong HP anomalies North/NW of us. At the same time we have a Weak PNA Ridge across the West and strong AK vortex?

Jet steram pattern is too zonal.

Wats your thoughts?

For once I agree with turtlehurricane. This type of setup is not the type I would hinge on any one deterministic model run. Cutoff lows and split flow regimes are not conducive to any type of medium range accuracy. Taking into account the general trend the past two months doesn't help.

[Chicago Storm]

Just to compare with the ECMWF snowfall map...

ORD:

 
TUE 00Z 20-DEC   3.6    -0.2    1011	  99	  99    0.23	 555	 546   
TUE 06Z 20-DEC   1.8    -1.0    1007	  98	  99    0.53	 551	 545   
TUE 12Z 20-DEC   1.2    -3.6    1004	  99	  99    0.60	 540	 537

[michsnowfreak]

I know a couple of months ago I (as well as a couple of others) stated that I would take Boston's climo over our own. However, looking at some of their totals over the last 30-40 years, I noticed a lot of sub 20" totals.

http://www.erh.noaa....te/bossnw.shtml

Sine 1890, I counted 12. That number balloons to 32 if you count sub 30" winters. In contrast, Toronto has only had 9 sub 30" winters since 1890, and our very first sub 20" winter just in 2009-10. I suppose if you put up pics and stats relating to the wicked SECS/HECS they get, I'd sway back the other way, but I gotta say, that's too much futility for my liking in Boston.

I say that all the time. People think of a HECS and think THAT is a Boston winter. They dont think of all the futile winters and even in the great winters all of the boring periods. Snowfall is much more frequent in Toronto (or Detroit and Chicago for that matter) than Boston.

[baroclinic_instability]

I say that all the time. People think of a HECS and think THAT is a Boston winter. They dont think of all the futile winters and even in the great winters all of the boring periods. Snowfall is much more frequent in Toronto (or Detroit and Chicago for that matter) than Boston.

Yeah agreed. I am not a Boston climo expert, but it is clear that the high totals but low average (large standard deviations) is due simply in part to their location w.r.t. the coastal front. Only takes 1-2 big storms to skew an entire seasons worth of data. I would much rather be inland.

[turtlehurricane]

Hmm, yes I understand what your portraying here but overall in terms of final verification results, the GFS has been doing fairly "bad" compared to the other models.

As for the storm potentials betwen the 18th-26th, I certainly think there will be something forming and progessing East. The teleconnection pattern doesn't really support a coastal atm or OTS thus I believe it will track inland but the HP anomalies surrouding the LP anomaly are key. We have a Weak Bermuda High in the Atlantic and decently strong HP anomalies North/NW of us. At the same time we have a Weak PNA Ridge across the West and strong AK vortex?

Jet steram pattern is too zonal.

Wats your thoughts?

As the current longwave is clearing the Midwest another one drops into CA at 48 hours, and breaks right around 84 hours leaving an upper-low in the southwest. Longwave #3 then comes in and kicks the upper-low east by 132 hours. Probably a Midwest storm since the jetstream is so far north, but the details are going to be quite unclear until we understand the nature of longwave #2, the upper-low, and longwave #3. Things can totally change with the models since that's alot of stuff we don't know about.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011121318&field=300mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[Chicago Storm]

With 1"+ rain likely the next day or so and additional potential through the rest of the month, Chicago as a shot at the wettest year on record.

Top 10 wettest years:

1. 2008 - 50.86"

2. 1983 - 49.35"

3. 2011 - 47.66"

4. 1970 - 46.09"

5. 1954 - 45.92"

6. 1883 - 45.86"

7. 2001 - 45.77"

8. 1993 - 44.90"

9. 1982 - 44.68"

10. 1885 - 44.29"

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I say that all the time. People think of a HECS and think THAT is a Boston winter. They dont think of all the futile winters and even in the great winters all of the boring periods. Snowfall is much more frequent in Toronto (or Detroit and Chicago for that matter) than Boston.

You have to admit though that, in an average winter, Ottawa and Montreal are the cities to be in! I will so miss Ottawa this winter once an average winter pattern kicks in!

[michsnowfreak]

You have to admit though that, in an average winter, Ottawa and Montreal are the cities to be in! I will so miss Ottawa this winter once an average winter pattern kicks in!

Oh for sure! Im all about snowfall frequency and snowcover, big storms are much appreciated bonuses!

[wisconsinwx]

Part of the problem with this winter is, even when there is some polar air to be found, the snow cover is still so sparse at this point compared to some past years that it is 5 degrees warmer than if there was snow cover. Therefore, the pattern would be bad enough and marginal if there was snow cover, but it will just keep repeating until we finally get some snowcover to drop the temps just a few more degrees to allow the snowcover to build south and east. It's just a "snowball effect" (sorry, had to go there, it's such an appropriate pun).

[Geos]

Part of the problem with this winter is, even when there is some polar air to be found, the snow cover is still so sparse at this point compared to some past years that it is 5 degrees warmer than if there was snow cover. Therefore, the pattern would be bad enough and marginal if there was snow cover, but it will just keep repeating until we finally get some snowcover to drop the temps just a few more degrees to allow the snowcover to build south and east. It's just a "snowball effect" (sorry, had to go there, it's such an appropriate pun).

It doesn't help that the snowcover is so far north either! It would be one thing if it was 50 miles away, but I think you have to go to central Manitoba or northern Ontario to find anything solid and noteworthy. Of course I believe this was the case before the big 99 Blizzard too.