December 2011 General Discussion/Obs Part 2

[Chicago WX]

Might be the best run of the GFS I've seen in weeks. Oh it's still overall warm and crappy, but I think it has a total (384 hours) of 2" snow here...including the Christmas Eve miracle. Baby steps.

[michsnowfreak]

I think (operative word) that climate data recording techniques are standardized worldwide, thanks to the WMO? WRT the U of T station though, lately things have been done kinda half-assed. There was talk from Environment Canada about closing it down due to lack of money, but it was saved because of enough petitioning from certain people. However, the quality of data might still have suffered due to that lack of money.

That's my recollection of the story Toronto4 told me. It was a couple of years ago though so I could be wrong.

Interesting. Obviously everyone who measures snow is a human being lol, so in cases of melting, mixing, etc, you have to use your best estimate/judgment. Daily snow depth is the 7am reading, which is a good idea IMO but not exempt from loopholes. Say you get a freak snowburst at 6am, drops 1" in 20 minutes, snow depth is 1" at 7am, and the snow melts by 8am and its a sunny day with bare ground. That snow lasted on the ground for less than 2 hours, but it was 1" at 7am, so that is the days snow depth. On the flip side, say snow develops at 7:30am (no prior snowcover), a blinding snowstorm rages all day, dropping a foot of snow....but the days snow depth is 0. Again all in all though for consistency purposes, you have to pick one, and I like 7am better than 7pm.

[Chicago Storm]

Sunday, December 18th:

Hi: 44F

Lo: 25F

Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy

Max Wind Gust: 21MPH

Rainfall: 0.00"

Snowfall: 0.0"

[IWXwx]

Can't find alot of info on it but 30 years ago today Valpo got rick rolled with 22" of snow in 3 hours.

I don't think you could get snowfall rates any higher than that. By the way, on this date in '04, Michigan City got 26", but the rates were ONLY 2'-3" an hour. lol Stolen from IWX:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

547 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004

...MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWSTORM BLANKETS NORTHWEST INDIANA...

THE LARGEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWSTORM IN SEVERAL YEARS HIT NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST

LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR MOVED INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS

THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OFF LAKE MICHIGAN

NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT QUICKLY SHIFTED TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS RESULTED IN AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND

OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXTENDING THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAME ONSHORE NEAR

BENTON HARBOR MICHIGAN THEN SHIFTED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTER COUNTY. THE BAND THEN

REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE CENTER OF

THIS INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WERE 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WAS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA

OF WESTERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTER COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 25 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION

WAS AT MICHIGAN CITY WITH 26 INCHES OF SNOW.

...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...

CITY.................COUNTY.......SNOWFALL

BERRIEN SPRINGS......BERRIEN.......8.0

BENTON HARBOR........BERRIEN.......7.8

EAU CLAIRE...........BERRIEN.......5.3

BUCHANAN.............BERRIEN.......4.0

NILES (EAST SIDE)....BERRIEN.......2.4

...NORTHWEST INDIANA...

MICHIGAN CITY........LAPORTE......26.0

WESTVILLE............LAPORTE......20.0

WANATAH..............LAPORTE......12.0

WANATAH 5S...........LAPORTE.......8.0

SOUTH BEND AIRPORT...ST. JOSEPH....8.0

NORTH JUDSON.........STARKE........6.0

ROLLING PRAIRIE......LAPORTE.......4.8

SOUTH BEND CITY......ST. JOSEPH....4.5

NEW CARLISLE.........ST. JOSEPH....3.0

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA THANKS OUR VOLUNTEER SNOW SPOTTERS FOR THEIR REPORTS.

WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL THROUGHOUT THE WINTER SEASON.

$$

HITCHCOCK

[weatherdavewi]

Absolute torch up here last night in northern Michigan, with readings rising through the upper 30s/lower 40s. Melting snow (what little there is) ongoing this morning with dewpoints into the middle 30s. Even the SOO got to 38 degrees. Just crazy.

[dmc76]

Absolute torch up here last night in northern Michigan, with readings rising through the upper 30s/lower 40s. Melting snow (what little there is) ongoing this morning with dewpoints into the middle 30s. Even the SOO got to 38 degrees. Just crazy.

Epic Winter disaster taking shape for ski country...

[SpartyOn]

Epic Winter disaster taking shape for ski country...

Think big picture.

[on_wx]

You're rubbing 0.6" of snow in my face. That's how horrid this December is.

if you really want i can bottle some snow and mail it to you

[Chicago WX]

Anniversary date for one of LAF's big dogs.

From IND's this day in weather history...

1973 : Heavy snow fell over the entire state on the 19-20th, with over one foot over much of northern Indiana. 17 inches fell at Lafayette.

IWX...

1973 -- Snow started falling in central and north Indiana today, and by the 20th piled up to 18" at Covington, 17" at Lafayette and Peru, and 14" at Fort Wayne.

ILX, who has the year wrong...

12/19/1974 Heavy snow fell across much of central and northern Illinois over a 3-day period. The storm produced 10 to 18 inches of snow. As a result, travel was at a standstill for two days. Springfield recorded a total of 14.6 inches of snow from the storm.

Also, the date for...as far as I know, the LAF area's biggest snowstorm on record in 1929 with 20.5" (per the WL COOP).

[snowstormcanuck]

Think big picture.

[cyclone77]

Made it up to 47 before the weak cool front passed.

[Hoosier]

Anniversary date for one of LAF's big dogs.

From IND's this day in weather history...

1973 : Heavy snow fell over the entire state on the 19-20th, with over one foot over much of northern Indiana. 17 inches fell at Lafayette.

IWX...

1973 -- Snow started falling in central and north Indiana today, and by the 20th piled up to 18" at Covington, 17" at Lafayette and Peru, and 14" at Fort Wayne.

ILX, who has the year wrong...

12/19/1974 Heavy snow fell across much of central and northern Illinois over a 3-day period. The storm produced 10 to 18 inches of snow. As a result, travel was at a standstill for two days. Springfield recorded a total of 14.6 inches of snow from the storm.

I don't think this event had the wind that 2007 did but I could be mistaken. Assuming that's true, I'd give 2007 the edge as I'm not a stickler for snow falling straight down.

[Chicago WX]

I don't think this event had the wind that 2007 did but I could be mistaken. Assuming that's true, I'd give 2007 the edge as I'm not a stickler for snow falling straight down.

Winds with 1973 were pretty tame in comparison, according to the LAF data on Wunderground.

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html

Looks like 27 straight hours of sub 1 mile snow rates though. Not too shabby.

I assume they got the numbers switched, but not shockingly, I-65 was closed. At least it looks like they're saying that in this METAR.

METAR KLAF 201800Z 35012KT 15SM SCT020 SCT120 M03/M07 A3002 RMK 20LAF 12/9 I56 CLSD UFN ^C12/712/5 12/8 SLP176 60000 T10331066 58015

[Chicago WX]

Just cracked 50º here.

[Hoar_Frost]

Absolute torch up here last night in northern Michigan, with readings rising through the upper 30s/lower 40s. Melting snow (what little there is) ongoing this morning with dewpoints into the middle 30s. Even the SOO got to 38 degrees. Just crazy.

Even the Soo ... that is pretty bad. My dad grew up in the Soo between 1960 and 1982, and he figures that it was pretty much guaranteed that Christmas would be white there, usually with at least several inches of snow on the ground, and that there was a fair chance that Thanksgiving would be white. Christmas might well be brown this year. It's definitely interesting even if disappointing and potentially crippling for the snow tourism industry (which is so important to the regional economy nowadays) up your way.

[michsnowfreak]

I'm just baffled with the majority of these predictions. Your a smart guy and in fact the majority of the patrons on this forum are..but in a hobby or craft where 2 weeks is la la land, it makes no sense to make to bank everything you got on a hunch. Climo is your crystal ball not the fooking GFS.

Climo can be a dirty word on here lol. Joking aside I agree 100%. If you want some interesting reads, go to the central/western forum and look at posts from last January when there was lots of griping (even though snowfall was slightly above normal at the time and we had already seen two 5"+ snowstorms by late Jan). I was calling for a big February, and just as now, I was told im way too optimistic, unrealistic, etc etc. How did Feb turn out? Thing is Ive seen it happen EVERY winter on the boards. Sure, now we hear phrases like "we are due for a bad winter because the last several have been so snowy", but when "the last several" were happening, we heard plenty of pessimism/complaining/etc, if not for different reasons (cold and dry, snowcover is boring). Its always something.

Have to feel sorry for ski resort owners up north having a Christmas like this, but for those of us who enjoy snow and dont rely on it for money, theres no logic in assuming/worrying that a bad start in December increases chances of a bad winter.

[Hoar_Frost]

Even the Soo ... that is pretty bad. My dad grew up in the Soo between 1960 and 1982, and he figures that it was pretty much guaranteed that Christmas would be white there, usually with at least several inches of snow on the ground, and that there was a fair chance that Thanksgiving would be white. Christmas might well be brown this year. It's definitely interesting even if disappointing and potentially crippling for the snow tourism industry (which is so important to the regional economy nowadays) up your way.

A disclaimer for my use of the word "crippling" ... Yes, there is another two to three months of "reliable" snow season up that way, but we must remember that, as far as snow tourism (skiing, snowmobiling, etc.) goes, Christmastime is key. That's when a lot of people can get the time away from work and school to get up there.

[michsnowfreak]

Anniversary date for one of LAF's big dogs.

From IND's this day in weather history...

1973 : Heavy snow fell over the entire state on the 19-20th, with over one foot over much of northern Indiana. 17 inches fell at Lafayette.

IWX...

1973 -- Snow started falling in central and north Indiana today, and by the 20th piled up to 18" at Covington, 17" at Lafayette and Peru, and 14" at Fort Wayne.

ILX, who has the year wrong...

12/19/1974 Heavy snow fell across much of central and northern Illinois over a 3-day period. The storm produced 10 to 18 inches of snow. As a result, travel was at a standstill for two days. Springfield recorded a total of 14.6 inches of snow from the storm.

Also, the date for...as far as I know, the LAF area's biggest snowstorm on record in 1929 with 20.5" (per the WL COOP).

Detroit saw 11.2" from the Dec 19/20, 1973 snowstorm. I have a newspaper story on the snow (it was apparently fluffy) and up to 15" was predicted.

The 1929 storm dropped 13.8" at Detroit, huge drifts. Our big December dog was Dec 1/2, 1974 with 19.3".

[michsnowfreak]

A disclaimer for my use of the word "crippling" ... Yes, there is another two to three months of "reliable" snow season up that way, but we must remember that, as far as snow tourism (skiing, snowmobiling, etc.) goes, Christmastime is key. That's when a lot of people can get the time away from work and school to get up there.

Its more like 3-4 more months up that way. Its still two months (mid-late Feb) away from when they usually see winters deepest snow, so plenty, and I mean plenty, of time for them to get tons of snow and the locals can probably snowmobile til April. But you hit the nail on the head with the economic aspect of Christmastime. Someone mentioned last week that 30-40% of some businesses YEARLY (not seasonal) profit comes from Christmas week, I never realized how imperative that week was up there.

[Chicago WX]

Fact: the overly optimistic posts are just as annoying as the overly pessimistic posts.

There is such a thing as pattern recognition going out to 2+ weeks...and to those that think there is no skill to it are very very wrong. If you don't want to give it any validity, then fine. But the "it'll snow because of climo" stuff is for the birds. Climo also says it'll be cold and snowy in December...and guess what...it hasn't been that way for the bulk of the region. Some of you need a lesson in bad winter climo too. Not every winter is cold and snowy...there are clunkers left and right. Nothing is guaranteed in weather...nothing. This isn't a I'm giving up on winter thing either...so don't go that route.

[Chicago Storm]

climo says the snow is coming!

lol

[A-L-E-K]

Just cracked 50º here.

same

[michsnowfreak]

Fact: the overly optimistic posts are just as annoying as the overly pessimistic posts.

There is such a thing as pattern recognition going out to 2+ weeks...and to those that think there is no skill to it are very very wrong. If you don't want to give it any validity, then fine. But the "it'll snow because of climo" stuff is for the birds. Climo also says it'll be cold and snowy in December...and guess what...it hasn't been that way for the bulk of the region. Some of you need a lesson in bad winter climo too. Not every winter is cold and snowy...there are clunkers left and right. Nothing is guaranteed in weather...nothing. This isn't a I'm giving up on winter thing either...so don't go that route.

They may be just as annoying but they are needed to put a dent in what is an overwhelming amount of pessimism. Theres definitely such a thing as pattern recognition, but many (not all) of the pessimistic posts have nothing to do with the poster recognizing a pattern, THAT is a fact as well. Another fact, just 15% of the seasons average snow should have fallen so far for Chicago/Detroit.

And idk if that was aimed at me or not, but you are preaching to the choir with "some need a lesson in bad winter climo". I know my climo up, down, and sideways. My past experience on these boards has shown that to many, regardless of where they live, a 2-week period of boring weather or near normal snowfall equates to "worst winter ever" or "perpetual screwzone". I knew that when we actually got a bad winter, the boards would be ready to practically self destruct.

Its clearly unwelcome to be an optimist on these boards, and I can tell you this. Theres been a few of us over the years, and we have been winning (remember, pessimism has always ruled the boards, even in 2007-08). But if the winter does end up a dud, guarentee sparty and I will be getting tons of I-told-you-so comments and such, how foolish we were to think wed see a lot of snow, etc etc.

[michsnowfreak]

Fact #2: both are best suited for the December thread.

Too late. With the start weve had to this season combined with previous winters, a storm thread will not exist the rest of this winter without an unrealistic influx of "storm cancel", "its just not our year", "nam has no support", "gfs is on crack", "euro is by itself", "its scary when all models agree, something can and will go wrong", "its bad when you are posting the dgex" etc etc. But you know what? Idk about sparty but I am done. You cant talk positive to people when times are good (see the previous 4 winters of near-record snow), so no way in hell can you when times are bad.

[Chicago WX]

They may be just as annoying but they are needed to put a dent in what is an overwhelming amount of pessimism. Theres definitely such a thing as pattern recognition, but many (not all) of the pessimistic posts have nothing to do with the poster recognizing a pattern, THAT is a fact as well. Another fact, just 15% of the seasons average snow should have fallen so far for Chicago/Detroit.

And idk if that was aimed at me or not, but you are preaching to the choir with "some need a lesson in bad winter climo". I know my climo up, down, and sideways. My past experience on these boards has shown that to many, regardless of where they live, a 2-week period of boring weather or near normal snowfall equates to "worst winter ever" or "perpetual screwzone". I knew that when we actually got a bad winter, the boards would be ready to practically self destruct.

Its clearly unwelcome to be an optimist on these boards, and I can tell you this. Theres been a few of us over the years, and we have been winning (remember, pessimism has always ruled the boards, even in 2007-08). But if the winter does end up a dud, guarentee sparty and I will be getting tons of I-told-you-so comments and such, how foolish we were to think wed see a lot of snow, etc etc.

I'm moving this over to the general thread.

I know you know your climo, and no I wasn't pointing my post directly at you. And no optimism is fine.

But I'm sorry if you think that pessimism rules the day and is annoyance. Like I said, the reverse can be true as well. There is also a reality portion that gets lost in the shuffle...at least that's how I try to look at things. And that is that this season has sucked for a lot of people so far...and doesn't look to get any better in the next 2 weeks. Yes, it may snow a few times...but overall the pattern going forward is hostile to consistent winter weather. That brings us to the first week of January where things probably won't be great either. I've been thinking mid January could be the change we need...but that's not a guarantee either. I hope it does turnaround at some point.

And nobody is going to throw "I told you so" at you if it remains crappy. That in itself is crappy IMO. Listen, I have no beef with you and I think you know that. But like I said, the pessimists (and realists) have some valid concerns right now as well. We'll hope for the best going forward.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'm moving this over to the general thread.

I know you know your climo, and no I wasn't pointing my post directly at you. And no optimism is fine.

But I'm sorry if you think that pessimism rules the day and is annoyance. Like I said, the reverse can be true as well. There is also a reality portion that gets lost in the shuffle...at least that's how I try to look at things. And that is that this season has sucked for a lot of people so far...and doesn't look to get any better in the next 2 weeks. Yes, it may snow a few times...but overall the pattern going forward is hostile to consistent winter weather. That brings us to the first week of January where things probably won't be great either. I've been thinking mid January could be the change we need...but that's not a guarantee either. I hope it does turnaround at some point.

And nobody is going to throw "I told you so" at you if it remains crappy. That in itself is crappy IMO. Listen, I have no beef with you and I think you know that. But like I said, the pessimists (and realists) have some valid concerns right now as well. We'll hope for the best going forward.

Well put Tim.

Not looking at the teleconnections, just based on climo, I'd agree with you and say our pattern change will occur between Jan 10 and Jan 15. That's when it occurred in 1999-00, a second-year Nina winter with an eqaully horrific start. For this warmth to persist any later than that would be unprecedented, and therefore, unlikely.

That's my optimism for the day.

[Chicago WX]

Well put Tim.

Not looking at the teleconnections, just based on climo, I'd agree with you and say our pattern change will occur between Jan 10 and Jan 15. That's when it occurred in 1999-00, a second-year Nina winter with an eqaully horrific start. For this warmth to persist any later than that would be unprecedented, and therefore, unlikely.

That's my optimism for the day.

Yeah I'm not pessimistic, OMG it'll never snow type of thing. But like I said, just trying to bring some reality to the situation at hand. It'll snow and get cold at some point, but the degree it does and for how long is anyone's guess right now. I remain positive for the future though.

Though in the end, I should just shut up and keep my thoughts to myself.

Back to making my charts...

[Hoosier]

They may be just as annoying but they are needed to put a dent in what is an overwhelming amount of pessimism. Theres definitely such a thing as pattern recognition, but many (not all) of the pessimistic posts have nothing to do with the poster recognizing a pattern, THAT is a fact as well. Another fact, just 15% of the seasons average snow should have fallen so far for Chicago/Detroit.

And idk if that was aimed at me or not, but you are preaching to the choir with "some need a lesson in bad winter climo". I know my climo up, down, and sideways. My past experience on these boards has shown that to many, regardless of where they live, a 2-week period of boring weather or near normal snowfall equates to "worst winter ever" or "perpetual screwzone". I knew that when we actually got a bad winter, the boards would be ready to practically self destruct.

Its clearly unwelcome to be an optimist on these boards, and I can tell you this. Theres been a few of us over the years, and we have been winning (remember, pessimism has always ruled the boards, even in 2007-08). But if the winter does end up a dud, guarentee sparty and I will be getting tons of I-told-you-so comments and such, how foolish we were to think wed see a lot of snow, etc etc.

I think it probably was aimed at you. He posted a good thread showing how slow starts in Chicago tend to lead to below average winters in terms of snow. No, not always, but that is the tendency. I would guess that the same holds true for most other areas that get off to a slow start. Obviously this doesn't apply to Detroit this year since they aren't off to a slow start.

[Hoosier]

I'm moving this over to the general thread.

I know you know your climo, and no I wasn't pointing my post directly at you. And no optimism is fine.

But I'm sorry if you think that pessimism rules the day and is annoyance. Like I said, the reverse can be true as well. There is also a reality portion that gets lost in the shuffle...at least that's how I try to look at things. And that is that this season has sucked for a lot of people so far...and doesn't look to get any better in the next 2 weeks. Yes, it may snow a few times...but overall the pattern going forward is hostile to consistent winter weather. That brings us to the first week of January where things probably won't be great either. I've been thinking mid January could be the change we need...but that's not a guarantee either. I hope it does turnaround at some point.

And nobody is going to throw "I told you so" at you if it remains crappy. That in itself is crappy IMO. Listen, I have no beef with you and I think you know that. But like I said, the pessimists (and realists) have some valid concerns right now as well. We'll hope for the best going forward.

lol I should've checked this thread first. Will move my post over.

[TugHillMatt]

They may be just as annoying but they are needed to put a dent in what is an overwhelming amount of pessimism. Theres definitely such a thing as pattern recognition, but many (not all) of the pessimistic posts have nothing to do with the poster recognizing a pattern, THAT is a fact as well. Another fact, just 15% of the seasons average snow should have fallen so far for Chicago/Detroit.

And idk if that was aimed at me or not, but you are preaching to the choir with "some need a lesson in bad winter climo". I know my climo up, down, and sideways. My past experience on these boards has shown that to many, regardless of where they live, a 2-week period of boring weather or near normal snowfall equates to "worst winter ever" or "perpetual screwzone". I knew that when we actually got a bad winter, the boards would be ready to practically self destruct.

Its clearly unwelcome to be an optimist on these boards, and I can tell you this. Theres been a few of us over the years, and we have been winning (remember, pessimism has always ruled the boards, even in 2007-08). But if the winter does end up a dud, guarentee sparty and I will be getting tons of I-told-you-so comments and such, how foolish we were to think wed see a lot of snow, etc etc.

Pessimists have their place in the world just as optimists do. Not everybody has to be a positive person. Pessimists help to point out things that my be wrong, need fixed, or are a problem. I understand it's frustrating, because there are times when people just need to be thankful. But I don't think you should continue placing blame and your "war on pessimism". As Chicago stated, it's just as annoying. Fact is, it's been LONGER than just "two weeks". We have been in this pattern for months...and many places, like here, have barely had any. Trust me, it's not just weather fanatics like myself who have noticed. Many "normal folk" where I live are disappointed and even sad that it is so blah and brown outside. They ask me, "Where's the snow??" These are people who may not even like snow. So, yes this is ABNORMAL and frustrating. Why can't you just accept that as REALITY?