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December 2011 General Discussion/Obs Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Something to watch. That run kind of looks like the 0z Euro with impressive mid level wave swinging southeast into the central plains then going nuetral and eventually neg tilt over us.

Got all the xmas shopping done early for once so it would really be nice to see the models settle in to something soon but I'm afraid its going to be flip flopping around to f with my decent mood for most of the week. O well.. at least something is out there and this pattern has to flip to a colder pattern at least even if there is no snow with it here so I can at least not have to drive up north to ice fish in january.

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Climo will really start to kick in to which should favor your area if and when we do flip. I'm just hoping for one good long storm to track and deliver.. outside of GHD that creeped into MKE there hasn't really been many other systems the last couple winters to really weenie out with. NW trend has been pretty dead except for GHD - the rain storms here have always shown their hand early so easy to accept but hard to fold - grr.... Kinna due one would think for a storm to look like rain in the mid-range fantasy land to actually throw a good surprise. Then again living down south like here we just come to accept the torch storms as the norm which is almost every winter.

When you think about it last year seemed like one of those quiet above average years: the one GHD blizzard bomb and then a couple of 5-6" snowfalls, but otherwise not much. Kinda difficult to think of it as a 60" winter when almost half of it was in a few days time.

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:o

So what you were trying to say earlier is that you are trying to wean yourself off of wx until New Year's? Gl on that.

Short of cutting off all internet options I have a better chance of weaning myself of the sauce for life than staying away from the board and wx models for more than a day from nov-april

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When you think about it last year seemed like one of those quiet above average years: the one GHD blizzard bomb and then a couple of 5-6" snowfalls, but otherwise not much. Kinda difficult to think of it as a 60" winter when almost half of it was in a few days time.

Didn't even have one 5"+ storm outside ghd. Lucked out in early dec and snowed 3.8" more than planned so I guess there goes my we're due for a mostly rain event to trend a little better. Then there was a 4.8" snow in Jan.. not sure if that was a a super clipper - prob was and failed here lol. The rest of the winter was nickel and dime ****. Seemed it snowed every day in Jan but all dinks. March has been horrible the last 2 yrs also.

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18z GFS delivers a modest storm for ORD to YYZ.

The 18Z GFS looks promising for a white Christmas from Des Moines to northern IL, southern WI, most of MI, and towards Toronto! Enough cold air in place.

gfs_namer_135_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

GFS shows a nice clipper hitting WI Christmas Eve, even though I'm jewish I'm rooting for it.

What does this even mean? You get anti-semitic when you're drunk huh?

Joke slo-poke.. Maybe you need some original 4 loko to stay up with the thread and relax, sally.

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Ended up with 0.6" this morning.

You mad, snowstormcanuck? trololololololol.gif

i went out at 3am driving around cape cod trying to find some good oes bands...i'm jealous of your 0.6"! i witnessed a graupel storm, and most of the time it was 33-34 with gloppy flakes...some stickage to cars or grassy surfaces...at least i saw flakes :) ,but yours is way better! :(

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Didn't even have one 5"+ storm outside ghd. Lucked out in early dec and snowed 3.8" more than planned so I guess there goes my we're due for a mostly rain event to trend a little better. Then there was a 4.8" snow in Jan.. not sure if that was a a super clipper - prob was and failed here lol. The rest of the winter was nickel and dime ****. Seemed it snowed every day in Jan but all dinks. March has been horrible the last 2 yrs also.

~45 miles south, I managed three 6"+ events last winter. Past February 3rd, it was 1-4" snowfalls.

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That's a good point. I suspect the bold part is true. However, none of this data has been quality controlled yet, so it may be that they have in fact received some accumulation of snow. However, IIRC that event correctly, it was a very sloppy snow with temps above freezing. It only stuck on the grass here in the suburbs and from the news footage of downtown I saw that evening, the ground was bare.

Maybe if Toronto4 is around he can shed some light.

I'm back. Been busy lately and plus this awful weather pattern hasn't helped much at all. It's hard to get into the Christmas spirit with no snow on the ground.

With respect to the Nov. 30th event, there was a very light dusting of snow on the grassy areas in the downtown core (around 0.1") around 11 am. However, once the snow stopped, the sun came out and the temperatures rose to the upper 30s late that afternoon. Hence, any snow that accumulated melted quickly.

The observer at the U of T downtown station measures twice a day: 7 am and 7 pm. So it looks like there was no snow on the ground for the observer to measure that evening.

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~45 miles south, I managed three 6"+ events last winter. Past February 3rd, it was 1-4" snowfalls.

We didnt get near the massive hit from GHD that you guys got, but the moderate-heavy snowstorms were a little more...had 8 storms drop more than 4" imby in 2010-11.

10.2" - Feb 20/21

10.1" - Feb 1/2

6.3" - Dec 12

4.7" - Mar 5/6

4.4" - Jan 11/12

4.3" - Feb 25

4.3" - Mar 10/11

4.1" - Feb 5

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Give me rain or snow...itching to see Detroit smash the wetest year record. Don't even care if its a tenth of inch over.

Had a dream about the Lions beating GB in 2 weeks...best part the game was a classic snow bowl. Superstition trolling hard in my head.

Certainly want to see the record broken, we are SO close. I mean, 2nd place is great, but nothing like 1st :). I was just reminded that a mild Nov/Dec fits right in with Bill Deedlers winter outlook, with the majority of snow coming mid-late winter, along with below normal temps. Makes you feel better in a pattern like this!

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Certainly want to see the record broken, we are SO close. I mean, 2nd place is great, but nothing like 1st :). I was just reminded that a mild Nov/Dec fits right in with Bill Deedlers winter outlook, with the majority of snow coming mid-late winter, along with below normal temps. Makes you feel better in a pattern like this!

ORD is getting really close to 2nd place for wettest year also. Probably a stretch to get to first, but one good storm could push the years precipitation total to 50"+.

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I'm back. Been busy lately and plus this awful weather pattern hasn't helped much at all. It's hard to get into the Christmas spirit with no snow on the ground.

With respect to the Nov. 30th event, there was a very light dusting of snow on the grassy areas in the downtown core (around 0.1") around 11 am. However, once the snow stopped, the sun came out and the temperatures rose to the upper 30s late that afternoon. Hence, any snow that accumulated melted quickly.

The observer at the U of T downtown station measures twice a day: 7 am and 7 pm. So it looks like there was no snow on the ground for the observer to measure that evening.

So the T for the season is legit. :(

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ORD is getting really close to 2nd place for wettest year also. Probably a stretch to get to first, but one good storm could push the years precipitation total to 50"+.

I believe Cleveland and Toledo have already broken their all-time wettest. Amazing how widespread heavy precip was more or less from start to finish in our region.

Right now Detroit is at 46.87", the 2nd wettest year on record, and needing 0.83" of rain and/or water content in snow to reach #1. Also not too shabby, this is the 8th snowiest calendar year on record with 65.2" so far. Usually we talk of seasonal snowfall, but when it is significant I think calendar snowfall should be noted as well. The all time snowiest calendar year was set in 2008 with 82.6", so how interesting would it be to see the snowiest and wettest calendar year set within 3 years of each other, when records go back to the 1870s!

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I'm back. Been busy lately and plus this awful weather pattern hasn't helped much at all. It's hard to get into the Christmas spirit with no snow on the ground.

With respect to the Nov. 30th event, there was a very light dusting of snow on the grassy areas in the downtown core (around 0.1") around 11 am. However, once the snow stopped, the sun came out and the temperatures rose to the upper 30s late that afternoon. Hence, any snow that accumulated melted quickly.

The observer at the U of T downtown station measures twice a day: 7 am and 7 pm. So it looks like there was no snow on the ground for the observer to measure that evening.

That is definitely 0.1" of snowfall then. Snow DEPTH would be 0 for both 7am and 7pm, but official snow measuring guidelines are to measure every 6 hours and the total snowfall for the day is the sum added up, regardless of how much is on the ground from melting, mixing, settling, etc. Although...Im wondering if they measure snow differently in Canada? Ive noticed they actually separate "precip" "rain" and "snow" (here its just precip and snow) and also they seem to apply 10-1 ratios to wet snow.

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That is definitely 0.1" of snowfall then. Snow DEPTH would be 0 for both 7am and 7pm, but official snow measuring guidelines are to measure every 6 hours and the total snowfall for the day is the sum added up, regardless of how much is on the ground from melting, mixing, settling, etc. Although...Im wondering if they measure snow differently in Canada? Ive noticed they actually separate "precip" "rain" and "snow" (here its just precip and snow) and also they seem to apply 10-1 ratios to wet snow.

I think (operative word) that climate data recording techniques are standardized worldwide, thanks to the WMO? WRT the U of T station though, lately things have been done kinda half-assed. There was talk from Environment Canada about closing it down due to lack of money, but it was saved because of enough petitioning from certain people. However, the quality of data might still have suffered due to that lack of money.

That's my recollection of the story Toronto4 told me. It was a couple of years ago though so I could be wrong.

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