psv88 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 His short range predictions have been spot on, but even a novice like myself could have told you the metro area wouldn't see snow with the past few "threats" we've seen. I'm still mad at him for getting me excited about an early December storm way back in early-mid November. That one didn't materialize so well. I'll keep the faith with the mid-January idea though. Al Leiter did get a few hits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 His short range predictions have been spot on, but even a novice like myself could have told you the metro area wouldn't see snow with the past few "threats" we've seen. I'm still mad at him for getting me excited about an early December storm way back in early-mid November. That one didn't materialize so well. I'll keep the faith with the mid-January idea though. He has developed an almost "OKCweatherman" like following. Hopefully he doesn't lead us off a cliff. We lost many weenies that frightful night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 His short range predictions have been spot on, but even a novice like myself could have told you the metro area wouldn't see snow with the past few "threats" we've seen. I'm still mad at him for getting me excited about an early December storm way back in early-mid November. That one didn't materialize so well. I'll keep the faith with the mid-January idea though. Hey man I'm a lawyer not a Weatherman lol. I honked for 10/31 and I.kept everyone in check last storm. I like the first week of Jan for a 3 to 6 incher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 His short range predictions have been spot on, but even a novice like myself could have told you the metro area wouldn't see snow with the past few "threats" we've seen. I'm still mad at him for getting me excited about an early December storm way back in early-mid November. That one didn't materialize so well. I'll keep the faith with the mid-January idea though. it's all we got at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 He has developed an almost "OKCweatherman" like following. Hopefully he doesn't lead us off a cliff. We lost many weenies that frightful night... Hey man I'm a lawyer not a Weatherman lol. I honked for 10/31 and I.kept everyone in check last storm. I like the first week of Jan for a 3 to 6 incher Don't string me along to pad your wxboard pockets anymore. Typical lawyer move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I think its the first time the GFS really showed any appreciable snow in the long range for our area. Meaning more than a couple tenths of an inch. No, that's fine, it just wont happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 At this rate we may end up with a 3 week winter. There are plenty of examples of winters that began in mid or late January and lasted until mid or late March. I think there was at least one of these in the early 90s and a one or two in the mid 1980s. I know there are more of them that I can't remember at this time. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Nothing wrong with normal weather got to live with what ever comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 86-87. Don't know how warm December was but I don't remember any snow. Christmas eve/day was rainy and warm. We ended up having a big storm on January 22nd, 2 4-6" events in Feb and one more in March and ended up slightly above normal snowfall that year. I also don't recall any arctic outbreaks or really cold air that winter. I don't recall any winters like that in the 90s but 04-05 was like that. Though December was quite cold, just with no snow. But we had very little as of Mid January 05 before the fun began. I'd gladly take a repeat of either of those winters! There are plenty of examples of winters that began in mid or late January and lasted until mid or late March. I think there was at least one of these in the early 90s and a one or two in the mid 1980s. I know there are more of them that I can't remember at this time. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Definitely a torch...if you live in alabama...if you live in ny its slightly great than 50/50 shot of warmer than average...and it looks like montauk will be average...Eastern suffolk FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 There are plenty of examples of winters that began in mid or late January and lasted until mid or late March. I think there was at least one of these in the early 90s and a one or two in the mid 1980s. I know there are more of them that I can't remember at this time. WX/PT 1971-72 is a perfect example of a second year la nina winter that had a good second half... 1985-86, 1992-93 had late season action after a slow start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Definitely a torch...if you live in alabama...if you live in ny its slightly great than 50/50 shot of warmer than average...and it looks like montauk will be average...Eastern suffolk FTW! yeah its not terrible for us if its right, but i'd rather be in blue. I just felt the need to post the blowtorch, couldn't resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's like having Al Leiter up at the plate and trials predicting an out. You may see Leiter during batting practice and see him hit a few shots, and think well, this might just happen. Trials knows though, that bar the very rare blooper, Al Leiter was a terrible batter. We are in an Al Leiter pattern. Last winter we were in a Bonds pattern. All pumped up on steroids...but it wasnt to be, it was too good to be true, and that is why it wont be repeated for a very very long time...we just need to put some hitters in the batters box and not these pitchers! This is just a silly statement. Was 2003-2004 that long ago? Or 95-96? Or even 2009-2010? The fun thing is we can't be serious and make these kinds of statements about the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 This is just a silly statement. Was 2003-2004 that long ago? Or 2009-2010? Bringing it back to baseball...sure, mark mcguire, sammy sosa and AROD were smashing homeruns in the 90's...all to good to be true...then bonds came and it was the end of an era, now the most HR is like 40 tops...so yea the last decade we had alot of HRs...time for reality again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Bringing it back to baseball...sure, mark mcguire, sammy sosa and AROD were smashing homeruns in the 90's...all to good to be true...then bonds came and it was the end of an era, now the most HR is like 40 tops...so yea the last decade we had alot of HRs...time for reality again... But that's what bugs me. We have been recording snowfall amounts in Central Park since about 1869. Before then we do not have accurate data. Weather is not constant and neither is climate. We don't know whether what we have seen the past couple of decades is something that could be sustained for a longer period of time or not. Also, the weather was not on steroids. We just have a warm AMO, combined with a flipped PDO and low Solar. This decade was meant to be and completely w/in the realm of reality. Just look at the past. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Don't string me along to pad your wxboard pockets anymore. Typical lawyer move. LOL, I am not steve d pedaling an inferior product at absurd prices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z euro keeps the flurries and -sn to our south on Sunday morning. Near the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hmmmmm, euro looks interesting around 120 hours. SE Ridge temporarily gets beat down, may allow for an over running event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z euro keeps the flurries and -sn to our south on Sunday morning. Near the DC area. At least it is showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 At least it is showing it. Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hmmmmm, euro looks interesting around 120 hours. SE Ridge temporarily gets beat down, may allow for an over running event Looks like the storm on Sunday bombs and curls back in and at the same time squashing the SE ridge. Ewall is out to 120, what does it show after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Looks like the storm on Sunday bombs and curls back in and at the same time squashing the SE ridge. Ewall is out to 120, what does it show after? I see the 850 line is south of jersey as of 120 with some overruning trying to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Looks like the storm on Sunday bombs and curls back in and at the same time squashing the SE ridge. Ewall is out to 120, what does it show after? not good. takes too long to eject and its warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hmmmmm, euro looks interesting around 120 hours. SE Ridge temporarily gets beat down, may allow for an over running event It is a fairly interesting run Hour 120 the H5 and surface set up is suggesting some strong advection that would enhance the precipitation shield. Still a far ways out but the euro is suggesting a light to moderate band of overrunning. Models never usually handle them well most of the time they end up more north and stronger. Have seen many due so over the years only 1 overrunning event comes to mind that was underdone by the models might of been back in 2008. Shall be interesting to see what other models say GFS has a few ensemble members now hinting at an overrunning event just need have it cold enough and things will work out for a nice present if this solution comes reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Definetely something we can watch for day 5. Slight changes would give us a little overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 There is nothing to be remotely excited about at 120 hrs on the EURO. Low back over the SW pumps up the hgts ahead of its progression and allows for strong WAA. No real confluence or strong PV to the north prevent that from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The 12z JMA has a much more robust system at 12z on the 23rd than what the European model showed with a low developing over Northern Georgia at 12z on Friday the 23rd as the low to the south is interacting much more with the low over the Great Lakes. At 12z next Friday the 23rd it has the 850 line cutting across central New Jersey from about Trenton to Asbury Park, and staying south of NYC and Long Island. It has .1 to .2 already having fallen by that time, with the 850's 24 hours before having been -7, so that is almost definitely snow. There would likely be MUCH more precipitation on the way later on Friday as the system seems to me to be phasing together for a good storm with .25-1.25 having fallen from southern Pennsylvania south throughout basically the entire Southeastern United States, however, there is no high pressure to the north or west, so this would likely change to rain unless we thread the needle somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Seasonable weather continues down the road on the euro but no major synoptic changes that would allow for a more favorable pattern. Christmas looks cool and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I like what I'm seeing on the ECMWF D 8-10. Continues to try to connect the PNA/EPO ridge in Western Canada across the pole to the Central Asian ridge. It's been suggesting this for the past few runs, and if so, we'll be bringing the AO down near 0, maybe even slightly negative in a couple weeks. Given the AO has such a strong correlation with the NAO, once we get the AO to fully turn negative w/ higher than normal heights in the Arctic, the NAO regions should improve as well by early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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