Second Half of December Weather Banter and Obs

[earthlight]

There's a good chance the eye will pass to our south. If that happens watch out.

northeast quadrant of a southwest flow event?

[MJO812]

0z GEFS shows a signal for a storm near Christmas.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I agree. It's just disheartening that a good chunk of the members in the NYC Metro forums canceled winter last week, and also claiming that we are going to have a clunker winter since we are "due for one after our past two blockbuster winters." That notion is equivalent to saying, "since the coin I flipped landed heads the last 4 times, it is 100% certain that it will land tails the next time." I noticed that almost no one responded to your "Mounting Evidence for Global Weather Change" thread in those forums. It's a shame that an ample amount of members in those forums use semantics rather than studying the synoptic patterns and teleconnections in order to forecast the long-range. Meanwhile, we have much better meteorologists and members, including yourself and Earthlight in AmericanWx who analyze the correct way.

Over the first eleven years of this century, we have had a high number of cold snowy winters with many blockbuster storms. The odds of that happening again three winters in a row is unlikely IMO. But there is no 100% certainty--never ever! But realistically, there are few if any indications right now of any kind of major sustained weather pattern change over the next 2-3 weeks. That takes us into early January. If the pattern begins to develop some high lattitude blocking just then, it is not automatic that we get a major snowstorm. We gotta get some more snowcover to our north and west. The SSTs south and east of us are going to take some time to cool down as well, so we would be extremely prone to changeovers barring extremely locked in bitterly cold air over us and to our north. I think to expect all the pieces of the puzzle to fall into place by early January is a tall order at this point, and even by mid January, a bit of a stretch. But it could certainly happen. There is no 100% (except POPs in a short-term forecast).

WX/PT

[MJO812]

0z GGEM also shows a Christmas storm

[CooL]

Benchmark storm at hr 186 on the euro

540 line 0c line in Canada, rain.

[Hailstorm]

Over the first eleven years of this century, we have had a high number of cold snowy winters with many blockbuster storms. The odds of that happening again three winters in a row is unlikely IMO. But there is no 100% certainty--never ever! But realistically, there are few if any indications right now of any kind of major sustained weather pattern change over the next 2-3 weeks. That takes us into early January. If the pattern begins to develop some high lattitude blocking just then, it is not automatic that we get a major snowstorm. We gotta get some more snowcover to our north and west. The SSTs south and east of us are going to take some time to cool down as well, so we would be extremely prone to changeovers barring extremely locked in bitterly cold air over us and to our north. I think to expect all the pieces of the puzzle to fall into place by early January is a tall order at this point, and even by mid January, a bit of a stretch. But it could certainly happen. There is no 100% (except POPs in a short-term forecast).

WX/PT

Good post and I agree with all of the above. By the way, when I meant "NYC Metro forums," I was referring to a whole different website that exists on the Internet and not AmericanWx at all.There is a silver lining in having warm anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean though; it creates more baroclinity (fuel) for our nor'easters when they encounter the colder continental air from the northwest.

[CoastalWx]

Inv trough snow?

[Neblizzard]

0z GGEM also shows a Christmas storm

Looks like the PNA ridge is more robust on the Canadian than any other model, we shall see what future models show...

[Alpha5]

Inv trough flurries?

fixed

[TheTrials]

0z GGEM also shows a Christmas storm

One of the best rules I follow for east coast snow storms is to NOT want a strong PV in Canada.

That map shows the exact opposite.

[easternsnowman]

It does'nt make sense how someone can claim just because the la nina is strenghtening we will have a warm feb. These are the same people who last year said because the la nina was strong the winter would be warm....how did that work out?

[BxEngine]

It does'nt make sense how someone can claim just because the la nina is strenghtening we will have a warm feb. These are the same people who last year said because the la nina was strong the winter would be warm....how did that work out?

Pretty sure this is flat out wrong.

[TheTrials]

I have been warning about the nina getting stronger for a few weeks. While other factors come into play it absolutely increases the probability that February has issues IMHO

[ag3]

We need to get lucky with the upper level low/norlun Sunday or we risk going completely snowless in December.

Models put the focus over NYC, but history shows that these norluns usually set up north and east of our area.

[BxEngine]

I have been warning about the nina getting stronger for a few weeks. While other factors come into play it absolutely increases the probability that February has issues IMHO

At this rate we may end up with a 3 week winter.

[TheTrials]

Norlun was the buz word last winter. Now its ssw gradient and transient

[TheTrials]

At this rate we may end up with a 3 week winter.

We can still get two back to back 20 inch storms and finish above normal

[NaoPos]

It does'nt make sense how someone can claim just because the la nina is strenghtening we will have a warm feb. These are the same people who last year said because the la nina was strong the winter would be warm....how did that work out?

hmmm.... You vs Wes......

While last year was the exception and not the rule on Nina's, (b.c of the dominant blocking that occured, up untill late Jan).. this year, no blocking=no chance.

Unless heights start to rise in the artic , it's gonna be tough to battle the SE ridge along the coastal plain.The -EPO since late nov has been holding us back from an all out torch (like you saw in NOV).. with the PIG PV sitting north of us in canada here in the eastern US, don't expect us to see much in snow along the coastal plain.

This graphic explains it quite well. Lower heights in the artic, forces higher heights between 30N-60N.

[BxEngine]

We can still get two back to back 20 inch storms and finish above normal

Baltimore pulled it off, why not us!

6z gfs sped up the cutter early next week by almost a full day. I need it to slow down.

[Sundog]

At this rate we may end up with a 3 week winter.

According to many here last year was a 30 day winter so what's 7 days among friends?

[easternsnowman]

We can still get two back to back 20 inch storms and finish above normal

The main thing we all care about is snow. I don't really care about temps, just that the snow won't stick around long with above normal temps. 1999-2000 does stick out again as an analog for this year.

[Sundog]

One of the best rules I follow for east coast snow storms is to NOT want a strong PV in Canada.

That map shows the exact opposite.

I think the great lakes low is causing more damage than the PV in that image. That could be a thread the needle type system but the low in Ontario is a b**ch.

[blizzardof09]

Norlun was the buz word last winter. Now its ssw gradient and transient

Yea norlun was sooo 2010-11. The swfe are the in now lol. Ive never really experience a norlun event and how rare they are i doubt ill see one this weekend

[TheTrials]

I think the great lakes low is causing more damage than the PV in that image. That could be a thread the needle type system but the low in Ontario is a b**ch.

They both suck

[supermeh]

Upton mentioning the possibility of the norlun feature this weekend in their AFD:

LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH

PRES BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH

THE MID LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST PASSING TO THE S FRI NIGHT INTO SAT

BUT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT

WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE N FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE VCNTY INTO

SUN. MEANWHILE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC

ON SAT AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK NORLUN TYPE TROF SETTING UP

BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AND

IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

PROFILES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS NOT BEEN

INCREASED TO INCLUDE POPS ATTM...SO HAVE KEPT THE ISOLD FLURRIES IN

THE FORECAST.

[ag3]

Upton mentioning the possibility of the norlun feature this weekend in their AFD:

LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH

PRES BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH

THE MID LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST PASSING TO THE S FRI NIGHT INTO SAT

BUT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT

WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE N FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE VCNTY INTO

SUN. MEANWHILE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC

ON SAT AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK NORLUN TYPE TROF SETTING UP

BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AND

IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

PROFILES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS NOT BEEN

INCREASED TO INCLUDE POPS ATTM...SO HAVE KEPT THE ISOLD FLURRIES IN

THE FORECAST.

Only thing that bothers me is that euro has nothing.

[supermeh]

Only thing that bothers me is that euro has nothing.

Saw that, however maybe the NAM-type models pick up on it better...just a thought. Maybe we will get a snow squall to ease our pain.

[jm1220]

I agree. It's just disheartening that a good chunk of the members in the NYC Metro forums canceled winter last week, and also claiming that we are going to have a clunker winter since we are "due for one after our past two blockbuster winters." That notion is equivalent to saying, "since the coin I flipped landed heads the last 4 times, it is 100% certain that it will land tails the next time." I noticed that almost no one responded to your "Mounting Evidence for Global Weather Change" thread in those forums. It's a shame that an ample amount of members in those forums use semantics rather than studying the synoptic patterns and teleconnections in order to forecast the long-range. Meanwhile, we have much better meteorologists and members, including yourself and Earthlight in AmericanWx who analyze the correct way.

It really is frustrating to watch the Greenland/upper Canada PV and resultant SE Ridge sit in the same place and refuse to move even an inch for days and weeks on end. It'll likely take something quite substantial via stratospheric warming or an uber-storm to knock this out of whack, since it's a very stable configuration. Hopefully these rumblings of a SSW verify, or we might be stuck with this for a long time, at least into early Jan. I still think we end up at about normal snow and temp-wise, but if this massive PV and ridge stick around for too much longer, it will be a tall order. The kind of pattern we saw last winter is maybe once per 50 years if not once a century, and it's impossible to expect multiple 12 or 18 inch storms per season to get us above average with only a few weeks or a month to work with. I think we can probably figure out a way to drive in a nice storm later in Jan or Feb, but we need a dramatic turnaround for that to happen. In the meantime, toss out and disregard any model fantasy storms like the one a couple of weeks ago, since it's near impossible for us to get any major winter wx action with this kind of pattern in place.

[Alpha5]

No sign of the vortex moving off the davis straight any time soon according to the overnight runs

[TheTrials]

Only thing that bothers me is that euro has nothing.

Which means there is nothing. NAM loves to over do these types of scenarios.