mattinpa Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS sucks. It does unless you like on the cold side and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sometimes I get the feeling that ChrisL wrote the algorithm for the SV precip maps on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS sucks. Not if you live in Buffalo, New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS sucks. Yep, it has backed off showing any change in the LR. More of the same with the polar jet locked to the north and crappy split flow..it even has another stupid cut-off in the SW near the end. Man, when it's bad, it's really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sometimes I get the feeling that ChrisL wrote the algorithm for the SV precip maps on the ECMWF. I get the same feeling with the wunderground snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I get the same feeling with the wunderground snowfall maps. Yeah those are def weenie-ish. I don't think they take into account BL temps enough. Its like they stop at 900mb when making those snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 interior blizzard. But wow, this is nothing like the gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Euro also gives us some light snow around 96-108 hours. The "clipper" system (as it has been dubbed by some on the forum) is a weak low pressure system that moves well to the south of the area and then strengthens off the coast. Surface and H85 temperatures seem very marginally supportive at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Big snowstorm for DC on the Euro, with rates of up to an inch per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Euro basically looks like 12/26/10 except the NAO is positive and everything about 75-100 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Euro basically looks like 12/26/10 except the NAO is positive and everything about 75-100 miles further west. the backward C type low track is similar. That huge closed off H5 trough pulls it back inland. Biggest difference between the euro and gfs is the ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The GFS and Canadian show nothing, the Euro and NOGAPS both show the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 There is some quickly growing support amongst the GEFS for a very anomalous ridge near the Rockies at this time. Although the NAO state is not favorable I wouldn't say we can write off some frozen precipitation if we can time a shortwave well. That ridge position usually means things will at the very least get interesting around here. Also notice the bucking heights near Newfoundland on the ensemble mean 500mb spaghetti plots. Indicative of the fact that if this event occurs, we'll be closely watching an event a day or two prior to it for it's effects on the pattern thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The GFS and Canadian show nothing, the Euro and NOGAPS both show the storm. Neither the GFS or the GGEM have the anomalous ridge that is showing up on the Euro and NOGAPS. The CMC has the energy, but look how it flattens out and slides southeastward in a relatively flat upper air pattern. You can almost imagine how the Euro blows up that shortwave as it lets it rocket south down the east end of the ridge axis over the Rockies. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm not sure why anyone would compare areas out in the mountains well west of DC to NYC suburbs...if you do that, its like saying the Catskills NW of NYC average 5 times as much as DC metro. Not as much as the equivalent far west of DC (i.e. Garrett County, MD). They get 150" snow a year easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 why would you compare the ny city and I-95 with the mountains west of DC? You get a clue. Because, having lived in both cities, the climate in each one is marginally different. NYC proper doesn't get that much more snow nor is it materially colder than DC proper. Furthermore, I was making the more general statement that the climates of each's respective metro areas similarly are not significantly different, especially the further out you get north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 exactly. The poster should be banned for the tone and approach of his post. . You realize suggesting that posters be banned is itself a ban-worthy act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Because, having lived in both cities, the climate in each one is marginally different. NYC proper doesn't get that much more snow nor is it materially colder than DC proper. Typically when you compare cities with a small north-south difference you find the transitional seasons are when the greatest difference obviously occurs, in other words April/May tend to be way more crappy in NYC than DC and same could be said for Oct/Nov too. The snow average isn't more than maybe 10 inches or so different but thats a pretty significant difference when you're talking 15-18 inches vs. 25-28...way less than comparing 110 vs 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 actually, looking at the poster's post history on american, it makes perfect sense. I hope you've enjoyed all the snow we've gotten this winter!! Let's also take a look at your ridiculous statement: Avg Jan high in Boston: 36 F Avg Jan high in NYC: 39 F Avg Jan high in DC: 43 F Avg Jan high in Miami: 76 F So how is DC like Miami compared to NYC? Can you elaborate on this quite absurd suggestion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Typically when you compare cities with a small north-south difference you find the transitional seasons are when the greatest difference obviously occurs, in other words April/May tend to be way more crappy in NYC than DC and same could be said for Oct/Nov too. The snow average isn't more than maybe 10 inches or so different but thats a pretty significant difference when you're talking 15-18 inches vs. 25-28...way less than comparing 110 vs 120. I think the strength of the heat island in NYC proper (most notably Manhattan) has given it a climate more similar to DC, even with respect to snowfall. NYC obviously gets more snow, but there are some higher elevation areas of DC (Columbia Heights, Tenleytown, Chevy Chase, etc) that are 300-400ft above sea level that get much more snow than DCA which is at 0ft on the Potomac. Living in both cities, I would say that DC gets a bit warmer during the day on any given winter day, but the night time lows are practically identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Serious posts (re: Euro/etc) go here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31371-nyctri-state-area-stumbling-into-january-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Because, having lived in both cities, the climate in each one is marginally different. NYC proper doesn't get that much more snow nor is it materially colder than DC proper. Furthermore, I was making the more general statement that the climates of each's respective metro areas similarly are not significantly different, especially the further out you get north and west. What would you say Hagerstown averages a yr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Also, it is about time for a new banter thread. Whoever wants to start it, go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 What would you say Hagerstown averages a yr? Well given that as the Shenandoah Valley progresses northward, the elevation drops (Staunton, VA which is approx 130 miles south of Hagerstown is at about 1400' while Hagerstown is at like 530'), they get a bit less than places further south. But I would guess about 35" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well given that as the Shenandoah Valley progresses northward, the elevation drops (Staunton, VA which is approx 130 miles south of Hagerstown is at about 1400' while Hagerstown is at like 530'), they get a bit less than places further south. But I would guess about 35" or so. So are you comparing places like Hagerstown to my location in regards to avg snowfall? Im just curious.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 So are you comparing places like Hagerstown to my location in regards to avg snowfall? Im just curious.. You're a bit higher. If you go into the panhandle of WV which is also approx 75 miles from DC, you get avg yearly snowfall totals of 60-80" depending on elevation. Obviously the NYC metro gets more snow than the DC metro. But it isn't some insanely greater amount that necessitates a comparison of DC to Miami. Also, Orange County, NY isn't in the NY metro, it is in the NYC CSA which is much more broad. Same thing with Hagerstown with respect to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 You're a bit higher. If you go into the panhandle of WV which is also approx 75 miles from DC, you get avg yearly snowfall totals of 60-80" depending on elevation. Obviously the NYC metro gets more snow than the DC metro. But it isn't some insanely greater amount that necessitates a comparison of DC to Miami. Also, your town (and Orange County, NY) is not in the NYC metropolitan area. And Hagerstown (Washington County, MD) isn't technically in the DC/Baltmore metro either. Im closer to NYC than Hagerstown is to DC. I avg 50-55". Places >1000' in my general area are pushing close to 60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Im closer to NYC than Hagerstown is to DC. I avg 50-55". You're also several hundred feet higher. If you look at Hampshire County, WV (which is about 85-90 miles W of DC), you can see anywhere from 40-60" of snowfall depending on elevation (500' to 2000'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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