ag3 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I used 27" and 18", but there is really no difference using 26 and 17...its about 50% more for NYC when I estimate the difference. Is there any way to list the number of actual snow events of 1"+ or more for both cities, over the last 30 years? This is where I believe there would be a major difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's further south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Tom -- Euro looks decent but I'm concerned seeing it back off on the strat warming in the longer range. Hopefully a blip run..we need that to remain steady. John, not too concerned about that right now, as often times stratospheric warming events slow down/level off then surge back again. Latest zonal mean temperatures for 60-90N have spiked to values at or above the mean. I'll post the graphs in the other thread, but the warming has really taken off at 10-30 hpa; we've gone from the 10-30th percentile to the 70-90th percentile now (well above the mean). Should be interesting to see how this progresses through day 10, but I expect to see impacts with the AO downturn by Jan 5th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yes, pick NYC's worst 20 year period on record and compare it to DCA, that seems fair. i had the same thought. i'd be curious to know how many of the past 13 decades (since we have reliable records for that period) has DC averaged more snow than nyc. hell, i've lived between NYC and philly my whole life, and generally speaking it's pretty obvious it's easier to get snow in NYC than philly..... let alone DC. of course to someone living in maine this whole conversation would be somewhat comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's further south too. It's not snowing with these temperatures. It might not even stick in parts of upstate NY until it begins to pull away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 JFK measures snow on a rooftop-I rest my case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I never said it was snow. I just said it was further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 There is snow cover, and there is deep snow cover. It sort of like sea surface temperatures for tropical cyclones, warm SST's help, but it also helps to have them relatively deep as well before you encounter the thermocline. You are correct, but hopefully these potentially two big storms this week will add to the snowpack up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 That clipper needs to be a little more south. As is on 18z gfs, the coast would start as some snow and then switch to a mix/rain as it warms into the lower 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Thats not a good sample though. Depends on the year, depending on the pattern boston cashes in and we get screwed...i think Boston is even more variable east to west. My buddy lives in newton, only 15 min west of logan and the difference is incredible, logan easily jumps to 33/34 on a northeast wind, when the western part of boston proper will be 31/32 still snowing. Boston Climo is tough to pin down. 15 min south of town and its nearly half the totals of NW burbs. BOS has the tightest suburb/city gradient of the I-95 cities. Newton probably averages 53-55" of snow per year. Where Ray is only 14 miles NNW of Logan airport averages 61" per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 yeah, i said looking healthier, weenies interpret that as meaning snow, but I am talking about H5 and vorticity along with track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's not snowing with these temperatures. It might not even stick in parts of upstate NY until it begins to pull away. NYC is in the 30's for half the storm and then jumps to 41 degrees, the last half. Most of Jersey, away from the coast, stays in the mid 30's. It's not far from being a nice snowy clipper on the GFS. Every single level, down to the 950 level is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 i had the same thought. i'd be curious to know how many of the past 13 decades (since we have reliable records for that period) has DC averaged more snow than nyc. hell, i've lived between NYC and philly my whole life, and generally speaking it's pretty obvious it's easier to get snow in NYC than philly..... let alone DC. of course to someone living in maine this whole conversation would be somewhat comical. Agreed. DCA to NYC is a major difference, and NYC to BOS is a major difference. PHL to NYC, I often notice that Trenton seems to receive event totals similar to PHL while Monmouth/Middlesex are much more similar to NYC, due largely to longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 JFK measures snow on a rooftop-I rest my case. Only recently though, so going back through the decades that wouldn't really be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Thats not a good sample though. Depends on the year, depending on the pattern boston cashes in and we get screwed...i think Boston is even more variable east to west. My buddy lives in newton, only 15 min west of logan and the difference is incredible, logan easily jumps to 33/34 on a northeast wind, when the western part of boston proper will be 31/32 still snowing. Boston Climo is tough to pin down. 15 min south of town and its nearly half the totals of NW burbs. That post was entirely sarcastic by the way. I agree w/ your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 NYC is in the 30's for half the storm and then jumps to 41 degrees, the last half. Most of Jersey, away from the coast, stays in the mid 30's. It's not far from being a nice snowy clipper on the GFS. Every single level, down to the 950 level is below freezing. Maybe I'm being overly cynical due to the snow drought, but with 850's barely below 0 even with the more southern track I have to doubt we will see snow in NYC. Also, it is not true that the 850's are always below 0, it is above 0 at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Maybe I'm being overly cynical due to the snow drought, but with 850's barely below 0 even with the more southern track I have to doubt we will see snow in NYC. I agree. We need it further south then the gfs showed. By about 100 miles. If that occurs, it's snow, no doubt. But with the SE ridge and seasonal trend, I highly doubt, the storm trends south. In fact, it will probably trend well north as we approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Huge lack of run to run consistency between the 12Z and 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 gfs goes from flat as a pancake to mega ridge over western canada in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 gfs goes from flat as a pancake to mega ridge over western canada in one run. Resulting in?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Resulting in?... prettier colors on the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 prettier colors on the map Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Resulting in?... it really cools down the eastern us but we aren't able to really dig any vorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Amazing that a 1043 high can drop in from Canada and the temps aren't even that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 some nice ridging showing up before truncation over the pole on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 nothing even remotely close to the mega euro trough at 00z and 12z. Euro has a much bigger ridge out west also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The GFS flies in the face of the >50% chance of above average temperatures that the NWS is calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Amazing that a 1043 high can drop in from Canada and the temps aren't even that cold. dude, its cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Despite -10 to -14 850 temps, days 7-9, temps are still above freezing for coastal areas and the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 dude, its cold. Not as cold as it should be in a normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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