Second Half of December Weather Banter and Obs

[nzucker]

Mild XMAS today with a high of 45.5F after a low of 25.3F here in Dobbs Ferry. Sharp contrast to last year when the highs were only in the mid-upper 20s on XMAS Day in advance of the blizzard.

[TheTrials]

Mild XMAS today with a high of 45.5F after a low of 25.3F here in Dobbs Ferry. Sharp contrast to last year when the highs were only in the mid-upper 20s on XMAS Day in advance of the blizzard.

would think up at 300 feet on your mountain it didn't get above freezing

[jiksports]

Wow at the 18z gfs. Best looking run . January is going to be a great month for snow weenies.

Henry and JB's prediction of a warm January notwithstanding.

[TheTrials]

Henry and JB's prediction of a warm January notwithstanding.

lolz, who can keep track of their nonsense

[MJO812]

Henry and JB's prediction of a warm January notwithstanding.

Actually, JB now thinks that winter will get going in the middle of January

[MJO812]

Rob Guarino thinks there is a big potential for a snowstorm in the 1st week of January

http://www.liveweath...id=8&Itemid=179

[jiksports]

Actually, JB now thinks that winter will get going in the middle of January

And he said that today and tomorrow would bring snow to NYC. Cold air is the key, and right not we've got none.

[SBUWX23]

No one here probably gives a hoot about this, but Tuesday nights low could potentially bring quite impressive winds over the area. 00z nam is predicting 90 kts of win at 800 mb ad 03z Wednesday and 61 kts at 950 mb!

SFC 994 16 12.7 12.0 95 0.8 12.3 160 31 286.3 287.9 285.7 311.0 8.86

2 950 399 11.9 11.8 100 0.1 11.9 165 61 289.2 290.8 287.1 315.1 9.19

3 900 852 10.8 10.8 100 -0.0 10.8 179 78 292.7 294.3 288.3 318.6 9.09

4 850 1327 8.3 8.3 100 0.0 8.3 192 85 294.9 296.3 288.2 318.3 8.11

5 800 1826 5.2 5.2 100 0.0 5.2 203 90 296.7 298.0 287.8 317.1 6.96

6 750 2350 1.6 1.6 100 0.0 1.6 210 86 298.3 299.4 287.2 315.3 5.73

7 700 2903 -1.4 -1.9 97 0.5 -1.6 214 71 301.0 301.8 287.2 315.3 4.77

8 650 3491 -4.5 -6.7 84 2.2 -5.4 210 70 303.9 304.6 287.1 314.9 3.56

9 600 4116 -8.3 -18.5 43 10.3 -11.3 209 81 306.5 306.8 285.8 311.3 1.47

10 550 4786 -12.1 -23.8 37 11.7 -15.0 207 84 309.7 309.9 286.4 313.1 1.02

11 500 5509 -16.3 -19.5 76 3.3 -17.1 203 83 313.2 313.5 288.3 318.6 1.63

[Isotherm]

i am glad you and I haven't waivered

I'm telling you, weather really tests your patience sometimes. I had a few low points over the past few weeks, my lowest probably around the 20th, thoughts of giving up on the early Jan pattern change and this winter as a whole. But I think we both made the right decision hanging on (hopefully) as things are looking much more favorable the first week of Jan and particularly beyond that time frame. Of course nothing's actually happened yet but compared to 1 week ago, I'd say we certainly not going to see a torch in early Jan.

[TheTrials]

No one here probably gives a hoot about this, but Tuesday nights low could potentially bring quite impressive winds over the area. 00z nam is predicting 90 kts of win at 800 mb ad 03z Wednesday and 61 kts at 950 mb!

SFC 994 16 12.7 12.0 95 0.8 12.3 160 31 286.3 287.9 285.7 311.0 8.86

2 950 399 11.9 11.8 100 0.1 11.9 165 61 289.2 290.8 287.1 315.1 9.19

3 900 852 10.8 10.8 100 -0.0 10.8 179 78 292.7 294.3 288.3 318.6 9.09

4 850 1327 8.3 8.3 100 0.0 8.3 192 85 294.9 296.3 288.2 318.3 8.11

5 800 1826 5.2 5.2 100 0.0 5.2 203 90 296.7 298.0 287.8 317.1 6.96

6 750 2350 1.6 1.6 100 0.0 1.6 210 86 298.3 299.4 287.2 315.3 5.73

7 700 2903 -1.4 -1.9 97 0.5 -1.6 214 71 301.0 301.8 287.2 315.3 4.77

8 650 3491 -4.5 -6.7 84 2.2 -5.4 210 70 303.9 304.6 287.1 314.9 3.56

9 600 4116 -8.3 -18.5 43 10.3 -11.3 209 81 306.5 306.8 285.8 311.3 1.47

10 550 4786 -12.1 -23.8 37 11.7 -15.0 207 84 309.7 309.9 286.4 313.1 1.02

11 500 5509 -16.3 -19.5 76 3.3 -17.1 203 83 313.2 313.5 288.3 318.6 1.63

they are gonna need HWW

[nycsnow]

No one here probably gives a hoot about this, but Tuesday nights low could potentially bring quite impressive winds over the area. 00z nam is predicting 90 kts of win at 800 mb ad 03z Wednesday and 61 kts at 950 mb!

SFC 994 16 12.7 12.0 95 0.8 12.3 160 31 286.3 287.9 285.7 311.0 8.86

2 950 399 11.9 11.8 100 0.1 11.9 165 61 289.2 290.8 287.1 315.1 9.19

3 900 852 10.8 10.8 100 -0.0 10.8 179 78 292.7 294.3 288.3 318.6 9.09

4 850 1327 8.3 8.3 100 0.0 8.3 192 85 294.9 296.3 288.2 318.3 8.11

5 800 1826 5.2 5.2 100 0.0 5.2 203 90 296.7 298.0 287.8 317.1 6.96

6 750 2350 1.6 1.6 100 0.0 1.6 210 86 298.3 299.4 287.2 315.3 5.73

7 700 2903 -1.4 -1.9 97 0.5 -1.6 214 71 301.0 301.8 287.2 315.3 4.77

8 650 3491 -4.5 -6.7 84 2.2 -5.4 210 70 303.9 304.6 287.1 314.9 3.56

9 600 4116 -8.3 -18.5 43 10.3 -11.3 209 81 306.5 306.8 285.8 311.3 1.47

10 550 4786 -12.1 -23.8 37 11.7 -15.0 207 84 309.7 309.9 286.4 313.1 1.02

11 500 5509 -16.3 -19.5 76 3.3 -17.1 203 83 313.2 313.5 288.3 318.6 1.63

Wind events are fun to watch, what would this translate to to at surface

[NYCSuburbs]

No one here probably gives a hoot about this, but Tuesday nights low could potentially bring quite impressive winds over the area. 00z nam is predicting 90 kts of win at 800 mb ad 03z Wednesday and 61 kts at 950 mb!

SFC 994 16 12.7 12.0 95 0.8 12.3 160 31 286.3 287.9 285.7 311.0 8.86

2 950 399 11.9 11.8 100 0.1 11.9 165 61 289.2 290.8 287.1 315.1 9.19

3 900 852 10.8 10.8 100 -0.0 10.8 179 78 292.7 294.3 288.3 318.6 9.09

4 850 1327 8.3 8.3 100 0.0 8.3 192 85 294.9 296.3 288.2 318.3 8.11

5 800 1826 5.2 5.2 100 0.0 5.2 203 90 296.7 298.0 287.8 317.1 6.96

6 750 2350 1.6 1.6 100 0.0 1.6 210 86 298.3 299.4 287.2 315.3 5.73

7 700 2903 -1.4 -1.9 97 0.5 -1.6 214 71 301.0 301.8 287.2 315.3 4.77

8 650 3491 -4.5 -6.7 84 2.2 -5.4 210 70 303.9 304.6 287.1 314.9 3.56

9 600 4116 -8.3 -18.5 43 10.3 -11.3 209 81 306.5 306.8 285.8 311.3 1.47

10 550 4786 -12.1 -23.8 37 11.7 -15.0 207 84 309.7 309.9 286.4 313.1 1.02

11 500 5509 -16.3 -19.5 76 3.3 -17.1 203 83 313.2 313.5 288.3 318.6 1.63

bluewave talked about this before, and it's also something I'm closely following as the wind aspect of this storm is being underforecasted by most forecasts I've seen. I'm not sure exactly how strong the winds at the surface will end up, but the potential for 40-50 mph gusts does appear to be there, if not even higher than 50 mph with convection. The winds with the 12/8 storm were underforecasted as well, reaching 60 mph in parts of Long Island, and it wouldn't surprise me if we also see strong wind gusts in this case.

[SBUWX23]

Yeah it will depend on how much mixes down in heavier precip/convection. That event on 12/8 was tricky as there was a gravity wave that moved through LI that enhanced the downward motion and winds.

bluewave talked about this before, and it's also something I'm closely following as the wind aspect of this storm is being underforecasted by most forecasts I've seen. I'm not sure exactly how strong the winds at the surface will end up, but the potential for 40-50 mph gusts does appear to be there, if not even higher than 50 mph with convection. The winds with the 12/8 storm were underforecasted as well, reaching 60 mph in parts of Long Island, and it wouldn't surprise me if we also see strong wind gusts in this case.

[SBUWX23]

Will all depend on how much mixing occurs. My guess right now is 30-40 mph sustained with gusts 50 to 60..

Wind events are fun to watch, what would this translate to to at surface

[nycsnow]

Will all depend on how much mixing occurs. My guess right now is 30-40 mph sustained with gusts 50 to 60..

Thanks 12/8 event was not forecasted well, I even lost power twice

[JBG]

Thanks 12/8 event was not forecasted well, I even lost power twice

That's more a LIPA issue than a meteorological problem The utilities' performance has been downright pathetic.

[nycsnow]

That's more a LIPA issue than a meteorological problem The utilities' performance has been downright pathetic.

No I know I just meant unexpected all together

[NYCSuburbs]

No I know I just meant unexpected all together

Strong wind gusts were expected at the back end of the storm. The 60+ mph gusts in Long Island came as a surprise though.

[SBUWX23]

Strong wind gusts were expected at the back end of the storm. The 60+ mph gusts in Long Island came as a surprise though.

Its nearly impossible to predict a gravity wave.

[nycsnow]

Its nearly impossible to predict a gravity wave.

How's gfs look for winds

[MJO812]

Looks like the GFS has a clipper going through on Friday. RH fields looks pretty juicy.

[H2Otown_WX]

Looks like the GFS has a clipper going through on Friday. RH fields looks pretty juicy.

That's a bad track for a clipper down here..it's over Toronto.

EDIT: Nevermind, I see what you're talking about. Still a little far north for our liking.

[NYCSuburbs]

Its nearly impossible to predict a gravity wave.

True, the specifics of the wind gusts including that gravity wave were impossible to forecast. What I was saying is that in general, gusty winds were expected in the back end of that storm even without the gravity wave.

[MJO812]

That's a bad track for a clipper down here..it's over Toronto.

Looks cold enough based off the 850's.

[H2Otown_WX]

Looks cold enough based off the 850's.

I was looking at the lead low, the one that takes over late Friday into Friday night looks okay. Could be warm in the BL though.

[MJO812]

I was looking at the lead low, the one that takes over late Friday into Friday night looks okay. Could be warm in the BL though.

Yea, it's slightly warm with the freezing line near the burbs.

[NYCSuburbs]

Looks cold enough based off the 850's.

By the time the main precip gets here at hour 123 it's too warm. If we see anything out of this clipper, with a track like that it would most likely be rain.

[MJO812]

By the time the main precip gets here at hour 123 it's too warm. If we see anything out of this clipper, with a track like that it would most likely be rain.

I'm not talking about that one. I am talking about this one.

[NYCSuburbs]

I'm not talking about that one. I am talking about this one.

That's a drier one though, and would probably produce isolated flurries for the area at best. The one coming in behind it at least on the GFS seems to be more organized with more widespread QPF.

[jiksports]

I'm not talking about that one. I am talking about this one.

The Precip dosn't make it into NYC until the next day, when it's too warm.