Weathergun Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Rough track: Hr 192- 1004 mb over Eastern Virginia Hr 198- 996 over Delaware Hr 204- 994 north of Toms River, NJ Hr 210- 992 approximately near NYC Thanks. That track would definitely put many of us on the warm side, quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Thanks. That track would definitely put many of us on the warm side, quickly. Maybe on that track some lake streamers could work down the coast especially if we get a closed low over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Maybe on that track some lake streamers could work down the coast especially if we get a closed low over New England. someone should post a map, i think the track is east of that based on ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I'm basing it off the AccuWx maps. Can't post those images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 someone should post a map, i think the track is east of that based on ewall I don't have the in between hour coordinates but the ensemble ridging near Newfoundland makes me think the low track could be really close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Clippers keep on moving further north run after run of the GFS. Maybe it's still underestimating the SE ridge. Didn't someone post some stat a couple days ago on how the GFS has been underestimating the SE ridge in the mid-longe range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 well both euro and gfs agree, big time something coming just after the New Year I notice that both also agree with some kind of heigher heights in eastern canada, sw of the davis strait. Hopefully we can have something frozen to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 LOL, Damn 18z gfs looks good. Wish it was tomorrow. Merry Xmas everyone, hope you all had a nice day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 hr 180 low is just off the outer banks ready to come up the coast High pressure in a great spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 hr 180 low is just off the outer banks ready to come up the coast High pressure in a great spot yeah, big time run there. Funny thing, 12z euro was close from the crude maps posted does the tide turn in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 wow, i mean, what would all do if that was 48 hours away? jeez, destroys us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 yeah, big time run there. Funny thing, 12z euro was close from the crude maps posted does the tide turn in January? according to the gfs january comes in like a lion. Closed off 500mb with a cold high and a dynamic snowstorm. delight on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 wow, i mean, what would all do if that was 48 hours away? jeez, destroys us Would that actually be snow though? Surface temps look terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Would that actually be snow though? Surface temps look terrible. Thats a weenie saying at 180 just keep ur eyes on h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Normally I would just assume it would cut far inland but given the significant ridge in the west, we may have a chance at something. It's so far out and the ridge has to be perfect to assure anything and this is just fantasy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Would that actually be snow though? Surface temps look terrible. lol who cares about surface temps at 192 hours out but if that storm did just that bomb of the coast with the 500 over head, yes, it would be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 another bombing coastal at hr 300 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Thats a weenie saying at 180 just keep ur eyes on h5. I didn't mean it to be a weenie question, I know it is so far out but when I looked at the surface they looked horrible and everyone was saying snow so just wanted to clarify. my mistake, sorry guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 another bombing coastal at hr 300 lol Best GFS run in a long time.. too bad it's not 48 hours out, as was said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I didn't mean it to be a weenie question, I know it is so far out but when I looked at the surface they looked horrible and everyone was saying snow so just wanted to clarify. my mistake, sorry guys. I think your question is legit. Nothing wrong with learning on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 It's gonna happen folks, I'm real excited about the pattern change for early January. I think those that revised to below or well below normal snowfall for the season will be wishing they didn't soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Wow at the 18z gfs. Best looking run . January is going to be a great month for snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Wow at the 18z gfs. Best looking run . January is going to be a great month for snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I am not all that excited by the new years threat. Very dependant on the low in advance of it that rapidly intensifies as it heads northeast. It prevents the hp from departing therefore acting as a pseudo block which in turn prevents the trough from going negative to early and the hgts from rising. If it does not occur as verbatim the shortwave would amplify early and bring a rainy solution. The higher hgts out west also help, but I would like to see a more amplified ridge. However, taken verbatim the following weekend at 288 hrs is the best setup at h5 I have seen so far this winter, similar to halloween. This parade of storms is constructive because it helps alter the pattern synoptically, even if we have to suffer through some rain storms. That being said 288 is far out and lots can change, but if support grows and models remain consistent...WOOF! Overall there were some impressive and encouraging changes, especially with signs of high latitude blocking. Merry Christmas! I wish you all snow and hope the encouraging signs are REAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 hr 180 low is just off the outer banks ready to come up the coast High pressure in a great spot The high over Eastern Queebec/New Brunswick, is not good spot for us. There's no arctic air with it either. But it's the 18z GFS at 180hrs, so who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The high over Eastern Queebec/New Brunswick, is not good spot for us. There's no arctic air with it either. But it's the 18z GFS at 180hrs, so who cares? i guess you'd want a high more south and west and to have arctic air with it but we can't be greedy i have a better chance of getting with beyonce than the gfs being right at that timeframe tho lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I think the best thing I have seen on these recent runs is more of a ridge across the western US. Even if the New Years storm ends up being warm, could this be the beginning of a changing flow pattern across the northern Hemisphere? If this system does happen and its a bit warmer then we would like, maybe we see this buckle the flow and a better positioning of features across the hemisphere. We shall see. As many have said, the change will be gradual if it happens. Happy Holidays everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I think the best thing I have seen on these recent runs is more of a ridge across the western US. Even if the New Years storm ends up being warm, could this be the beginning of a changing flow pattern across the northern Hemisphere? If this system does happen and its a bit warmer then we would like, maybe we see this buckle the flow and a better positioning of features across the hemisphere. We shall see. As many have said, the change will be gradual if it happens. Happy Holidays everyone!! I've been thinking it has more potential to be a pattern changer than snowstorm for us. Especially if it cuts inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's gonna happen folks, I'm real excited about the pattern change for early January. I think those that revised to below or well below normal snowfall for the season will be wishing they didn't soon. i am glad you and I haven't waivered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 The high over Eastern Queebec/New Brunswick, is not good spot for us. There's no arctic air with it either. But it's the 18z GFS at 180hrs, so who cares? The high is fine that far out, best thing is it isn't off the coast, its stays north of the border looks like its "blocked" in by the height anomolies in south of the strait honestly, its too far out to be over critical or excited its just something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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