jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Split Pac jet phase for New Years anyone? I know I probably sound like a weenie, but what exactly is Split Pact Jet Phase again? Good or bad for us? Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 I know I probably sound like a weenie, but what exactly is Split Pact Jet Phase again? Good or bad for us? Thanks man. PAC jet comes ashore and splits into to flows, one across canada, one down the rockies, then comes back as one jet and phases over the central US. You can see it at the 500mb level. Its a great thing for a big storm when you have a -NAO, here, we don't have that, so we are really toeing the line. Probably a rain storm, but could be frozen at the beginning or end depending on the evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 PAC jet comes ashore and splits into to flows, one across canada, one down the rockies, then comes back as one jet and phases over the central US. You can see it at the 500mb level. Its a great thing for a big storm when you have a -NAO, here, we don't have that, so we are really toeing the line. Probably a rain storm, but could be frozen at the beginning or end depending on the evolution. Gotcha. Appreciate it, thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 still no blocking put we do get a nice pv/sub pv to out ahead of the system which may keep the cold in place. nice ridge out west. All wil change a million times but the ensembles have been loving this time frame for a week, so we should see something. On the GFS, the PV over Baffin Bay is too far north. It's evident, by the cold airmass over the Northeast eroding away, before the storm arrives. This is also when the GFS starts to truncate. I think in this setup hugs the coast too much or runs inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 On the GFS, the PV over Baffin Bay is too far north. It's evident, by the cold airmass over the Northeast eroding away, before the storm arrives. This is also when the GFS starts to truncate. I think in this setup hugs the coast too much or runs inland. I agree with TheTrials here; you can't take that position too literally right now and it's the best chance for snow in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 the ridge is perfect, sadly there are 200 hrs left of model runs and it will likely look nothing like today's 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 the ridge is perfect, sadly there are 200 hrs left of model runs and it will likely look nothing like today's 12z gfs I agree. There's still a lot of time for this to go bad. Still, it's nice to see some good pattern pieces being shown in place for multiple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 There will be two periods to watch. The first is with the potential for a low topped squall line to develop ahead of the low. The second is with the CAA behind the storm. We'll need to see exactly deep the low gets to determine the exact wind gust potential. The wind potential is quite interesting for this storm (interesting when there's no snow to look at), and is being underforecasted in my opinion. The models are showing a strong low level jet with the rain on Tuesday night as the low tracks to our west, probably bringing another scenario where temperatures surge overnight into the lower to mid 50s along with possibly some thunder, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 40-50+ mph gusts come out of this in parts of NYC and Long Island. Behind the storm it looks like generally 25-40 mph wind gusts for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Yeah, much more pronounced split flow this December without any decent blocking. You can notice the the really cranking STJ with the Nino in 2009 . 2011 2010 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I agree with TheTrials here; you can't take that position too literally right now and it's the best chance for snow in a while. You can't take the GFS position of the West Coast ridge, too literally right now, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 You can't take the GFS position of the West Coast ridge, too literally right now, either. It will probably be a few days until all the synoptic features are known. Models are usually good with those from 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 You can't take the GFS position of the West Coast ridge, too literally right now, either. The 12z Euro at least through 180 hrs definitely doesn't look as favorable with the west coast ridging. The ridge axis looks to be too far west and not quite as amplified as the GFS. EDIT: May have spoke too soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Hrs. 192 and 204 of the Euro look promising, though I can't tell if there's precip there. It's also cooler for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Hrs. 192 and 204 of the Euro look promising, though I can't tell if there's precip there. It's also cooler for the clipper. i'd love to give you more info in regards to precip but the 12z euro has not worked on stormvista for 2 days in a row now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The 12z Euro at least through 180 hrs definitely doesn't look as favorable with the west coast ridging. The ridge axis looks to be too far west and not quite as amplified as the GFS. EDIT: May have spoke too soon... On ewall. The ridge looks more amplified over the Rockies at 192hrs. Looks a little warm initially. But the low occludes by 216hr over New England. So it might be rain to snow for NYC to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Hr 192-216 looks pretty damn good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 i'd love to give you more info in regards to precip but the 12z euro has not worked on stormvista for 2 days in a row now I havent bough SV this year, due to a lack of threatning snow storms. However, it's usually a good service (had it the last 3 years for winter months).. BUt i would raise some noise abuot it not working. For the price you pay(lets face it, mostly to see the euro) . I'd be a little p'od. anyhow, the MJO heading towards amore pronounced phase 6 before back into the COD. At least its trying to get to phase 7. But it's better than showing that triangle of heading into the COD and then back into phase 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 On ewall. The ridge looks more amplified over the Rockies at 192hrs. Looks a little warm initially. But the low occludes by 216hr over New England. So it might be rain to snow for NYC to BOS. Yeah when I was saying it looked too far west/not as amplified it was really prior to 180 hrs. Not a bad look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I havent bough SV this year, due to a lack of threatning snow storms. However, it's usually a good service (had it the last 3 years for winter months).. BUt i would raise some noise abuot it not working. For the price you pay(lets face it, mostly to see the euro) . I'd be a little p'od. its not gonna break the bank but yeah its pretty annoying not being able to look at a model, but this is the first problem i ever had. Its also a really smooth site for the other models as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 i dont think the euro will ever work on SV again because no one is running it since Jack died, correct?. Better find a new site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Judging by the crappy ewall maps, looks like Norfolk VA to eastern LI up to Boston for the low track. Would imagine there is at least some front end snow on that for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Judging by the crappy ewall maps, looks like Norfolk VA to eastern LI up to Boston for the low track. Would imagine there is at least some front end snow on that for everyone On Raleighwx site. The low is inland over SE VA at 192hrs. 850mb temps are very marginal in our area. If there's front end snow/mix it doesn't last long: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 On Raleighwx site. The low is inland over SE VA at 192hrs. 850mb temps are very marginal in our area. If there's front end snow/mix it doesn't last long: 0 to -2 will support snow if the low goes to the east and the 925 low stays to the east, its January almost. Biggest thing there is the isobars point to a track off the coast not inland well see where this goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 you also still have HP decently placed see the extension of the high over NY state and judging by the 500 maps there is slight ridging over eastern canada that may help here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 192 540 line is just NE of KPHL and runs just NE of KNYC 198 540 line is just south of KABE and then runs thru NW NJ 204 540 line has shifted east and is just west and i mean just west of NYC 210 540 line is now off the coast except for in the Maine area 2 meter temps 192 40-45 NYC 198 40-45 NYC 204 border of 35-40 /40-45 210 35-40 All via accu pro images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 192 540 line is just NE of KPHL and runs just NE of KNYC 198 540 line is just south of KABE and then runs thru NW NJ 204 540 line has shifted east and is just west and i mean just west of NYC 210 540 line is now off the coast except for in the Maine area 2 meter temps 192 40-45 NYC 198 40-45 NYC 204 border of 35-40 /40-45 210 35-40 All via accu pro images We are doing too much analysis this far out. But just for the record what is the slp track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 We are doing too much analysis this far out. But just for the record what is the slp track? This is exactly what this thread is made for, you can do analysis of a 192 hours storm,nothing wrong with it, especially when a lot of us who use SV dont have access to any maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 We are doing too much analysis this far out. But just for the record what is the slp track? Rough track: Hr 192- 1004 mb over Eastern Virginia Hr 198- 996 over Delaware Hr 204- 994 north of Toms River, NJ Hr 210- 992 approximately near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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