Ji Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 We had -10c 850 temps just the other day.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 i dont want cold, i want snow. lol and none of tonights models offer that sadly this is when i regret not savoring every time we get a 3"+ snowstorm. because i would do anything for even that at this point If we can't get a snowstorm, then I will be happy with just record cold temperatures this entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 This is the 1st time this winter that we ever saw these NAO numbers this low. 0z GFS The end of the run does show a nasty ridge at 500mb in the N Atlantic but its hard to tell if its a transient thumb projection or truly the beginning of something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Perfect benchmark track and a strong low on 6z NAM and still no chance at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 SREF is really far south http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F25%2F2011+09UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+MEANSPRD&pname=2m_temp&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 SREFs are garbage beyond 60hrs..hell even 48 hrs. I literally would throw out any solution it has at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 The end of the run does show a nasty ridge at 500mb in the N Atlantic but its hard to tell if its a transient thumb projection or truly the beginning of something bigger. looks like an east based nao to me which would make it cold and dry instead of warm and wet. Both suck. Really still just an extension of the north atlantic ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 SREFs are garbage beyond 60hrs..hell even 48 hrs. I literally would throw out any solution it has at that time frame. yeah, srefs pulled a couple of coups out of their azzes for some of the storms the past two winters after their upgrade but they are still extremely unreliable in all aspects outside 2, 2.5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I think the Euro and Ukmet are most likely to correct for the Tuesday night storm. But even a SE track is not going help us. There is strong SW flow ahead of this storm. The CAA behind this storm is not that great. Areas well NW of NYC could see it ending snow. But there's not enough cold air for the coastal areas. The setup for the clipper on the 30th is poor. High over Nova Scotia and another low over the Great lakes. I'm not really liking any snow threat before Jan. 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 This is the 1st time this winter that we ever saw these NAO numbers this low. 0z GFS You have to use the ensembles for the 6-10 day forecast and anything beyond since the OP is too unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 You have to use the ensembles for the 6-10 day forecast and anything beyond since the OP is too unreliable. The ensembles have also been unreliable in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The ensembles have also been unreliable in the mid to long range. The 6-10 GFS day ensembles blended with the Euro ensembles have been spot on in regard to not forecasting a pattern change with the AO so far through the fall and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Not to say winter is coming in full throttle; but there are some signs in at least Northern New England that winter is beginning to set in...snow line is down to near the Mass. / NH - VT state lines, those insane departures from normal in Caribou and Burlington are starting to settle downward just a bit...there is snow in the forecast up there...certainly nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year...but at least an indication that things are headed the right way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas to everybody. Wishing you and your family a merry, safe, and blessed holiday. Oh, and most importantly, tons and tons of snow. Love you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Wednesday-Wednesday night is still looking really cold on the models interestingly... the GFS and even the NAM have 2m temps near freezing at 18z Wednesday, which is almost certainly too cold, but then bring a surge of cold temperatures overnight with the DGEX and GFS showing 10s for parts of northern NJ. Even with the coldest temperatures we've seen so far the models weren't that cold. The ECM and the CMC aren't as cold, with mid 20s for NYC and 10s further inland, but they still suggest that Wednesday night might be one of the coldest nights this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Wednesday-Wednesday night is still looking really cold on the models interestingly... the GFS and even the NAM have 2m temps near freezing at 18z Wednesday, which is almost certainly too cold, but then bring a surge of cold temperatures overnight with the DGEX and GFS showing 10s for parts of northern NJ. Even with the coldest temperatures we've seen so far the models weren't that cold. The ECM and the CMC aren't as cold, with mid 20s for NYC and 10s further inland, but they still suggest that Wednesday night might be one of the coldest nights this winter so far. It is cold; though close to seasonably cold; as most of rural N. Jersey / away from the urban areas should have overnight lows in the high teens to around 20 the last few days of December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Not to say winter is coming in full throttle; but there are some signs in at least Northern New England that winter is beginning to set in...snow line is down to near the Mass. / NH - VT state lines, those insane departures from normal in Caribou and Burlington are starting to settle downward just a bit...there is snow in the forecast up there...certainly nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year...but at least an indication that things are headed the right way... It's slowly coming together for the area. Merry Christmas to everybody. Wishing you and your family a merry, safe, and blessed holiday. Oh, and most importantly, tons and tons of snow. Love you guys. Merry Christmas John. Lets hope the 2nd half of the winter delivers the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Wednesday-Wednesday night is still looking really cold on the models interestingly... the GFS and even the NAM have 2m temps near freezing at 18z Wednesday, which is almost certainly too cold, but then bring a surge of cold temperatures overnight with the DGEX and GFS showing 10s for parts of northern NJ. Even with the coldest temperatures we've seen so far the models weren't that cold. The ECM and the CMC aren't as cold, with mid 20s for NYC and 10s further inland, but they still suggest that Wednesday night might be one of the coldest nights this winter so far. I think it will be the coldest night for NYC since the 18th. Right now the models look a few degrees warmer but the wind chills should feel really cold before the winds slacken by morning with the high moving over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 It is cold; though close to seasonably cold; as most of rural N. Jersey / away from the urban areas should have overnight lows in the high teens to around 20 the last few days of December... In fairness...noticed the 12z Nam had a 2m temp of 30.6F @ KNYC / Hour 78 (1:00 PM Wed)...which is a good nine degrees or so below normal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I think it will be the coldest night for NYC since the 18th. Right now the models look a few degrees warmer but the wind chills should feel really cold before the winds slacken by morning with the high moving over. Definitely looks like it IMO, the ingredients for a cold night are in place including clearing skies and 850 mb temperatures near -10c, and the wind especially in the evening could bring some cold wind chills as you said. 12z NAM temperatures for 0z Thursday FWIW are probably a bit too cold for 7 PM, but it's not unreasonable that a large part of N NJ drops below 20 degrees if this does verify, as happened on the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Definitely looks like it IMO, the ingredients for a cold night are in place including clearing skies and 850 mb temperatures near -10c, and the wind especially in the evening could bring some cold wind chills as you said. 12z NAM temperatures for 0z Thursday FWIW are probably a bit too cold for 7 PM, but it's not unreasonable that a large part of N NJ drops below 20 degrees if this does verify, as happened on the 18th. I think that the winds will end up being the big story this week with the phasing streams, negative tilt trough, and rapidly deepening low moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I think that the winds will end up being the big story this week with the phasing streams, negative tilt trough, and rapidly deepening low moving through. How strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 GFS is cold for NYE and NYD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 looks like the plan to wait three weeks will have a happy ending. January is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 looks like the plan to wait three weeks will have a happy ending. January is looking good. GFS is showing a massive PNA ridge out west with really cold conditions in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Split Pac jet phase for New Years anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 How strong? There will be two periods to watch. The first is with the potential for a low topped squall line to develop ahead of the low. The second is with the CAA behind the storm. We'll need to see exactly deep the low gets to determine the exact wind gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I know its 8 days out but man does that NYE/NYD storm look interesting. Regardless if its a rain or snow it looks to pack a wallop.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I know its 8 days out but man does that NYE/NYD storm look interesting. Regardless if its a rain or snow it looks to pack a wallop.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 I know its 8 days out but man does that NYE/NYD storm look interesting. Regardless if its a rain or snow it looks to pack a wallop.. still no blocking put we do get a nice pv/sub pv to out ahead of the system which may keep the cold in place. nice ridge out west. All wil change a million times but the ensembles have been loving this time frame for a week, so we should see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.