mattinpa Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Lots of clippers on the 18z GFS (some have BL issues) - better than nothing. And the Euro trended better for the storm it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Where is that!? OT. GFS holding firm in warming the pole and changing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Lots of clippers on the 18z GFS (some have BL issues) - better than nothing. And the Euro trended better for the storm it's showing. GFS depicts a nice pattern post D7 as it has been the last few runs. Pops several PNA ridges and gets the northern stream going. Could be a good pattern for 40N. Let's hope it has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 OT. GFS holding firm in warming the pole and changing things up. Thanks I got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 @NoradSanta: Santa is at the Arctic latitudes at this time and at 30 mb has detected an unusual warming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 OT. GFS holding firm in warming the pole and changing things up. 18z run plus ensembles look very encouraging. Operational run loses the +AO by day 10 with height rises, then tries to connect the PNA, NAO, AO heights across the top by day 16. Most members going towards the PNA ridge / eastern trough / declining AO post 240hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 18z run plus ensembles look very encouraging. Operational run loses the +AO by day 10 with height rises, then tries to connect the PNA, NAO, AO heights across the top by day 16. Most members going towards the PNA ridge / eastern trough / declining AO post 240hr. Way out there but it shows the potential in this pattern: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTNH_18z/ensloopmref.html Note the top left member - operationa run - out at 384hrs. Blocking connects yielding cross polar flow and -20c 850s pouring into the US by that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 NYE clipper! ill take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Things starting to look up for the first week of jan, people finally starting to see light at the end of the tunnel. As earthlight stated patience isotherms ssw looking good to by hr 240 we will hopefully notice something, thanks for all the hard work guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Behind Tuesday night's soaking rainstorm (which also appears to bring gusty winds for Wednesday), the models are going really cold at least compared to what we've seen under this pattern for Wednesday night, with the GFS and ECM showing mid 20s in NYC and 10s in NW NJ. The 850 mb temperatures aren't as cold as the last time temperatures got down this low, but at the same time there's also supposed to be mostly clear skies with possible north winds. Perhaps the models could be a bit too cold, but the potential is there for the 2nd or 3rd coldest night of the winter so far on Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 23F on Christmas Eve here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I think tonight is as cold as the Christmas Eve night last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 How worse can it possibly get than this? Al Gore-styled inferno for the whole country except Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 How worse can it possibly get than this? Al Gore-styled inferno for the whole country except Alaska. At least the 80 percent isn't placed on top of NYC... not that it matters much anyways since temperatures will still end up above average most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 GFS has the Trials storm FWIW, JB says watch out for some snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Look at those heights in greenland later in the gfs almost looks sexy:x haa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 This is the 1st time this winter that we ever saw these NAO numbers this low. 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Interesting 0z GEFS is on the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 This is the 1st time this winter that we ever saw these NAO numbers this low. 0z GFS Yup. And upper level maps actually support it. Hope the gfs is not totally lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Interesting 0z GEFS is on the benchmark. The OP GFS made a big correction south, but not enough for anything major. I think we see light snow at the end because there are 2 frames of precip and 0c or below 850s. Ensembles might be under-doing the SE ridge again, but interesting to see it so different 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The ggem gets really cold in the 1st week of january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas Everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The ggem gets really cold in the 1st week of january. What is that it has around hr. 204? A Miller B with rain to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 euro warm with clipper figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 BRRRRRRRR!! http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 BRRRRRRRR!! http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif We had -10c 850 temps just the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 i dont want cold, i want snow. lol and none of tonights models offer that sadly this is when i regret not savoring every time we get a 3"+ snowstorm. because i would do anything for even that at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 New srefs at 87 look somewhat interesting...this northern stream seems to be speeding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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