SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I thought you already gave up on this winter? I have for the most part but it's not completely impossible for it not to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 NOUS42 KWNO 240921 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0920Z SAT DEC 24 2011 DUE TO COMPUTATIONAL PROBLEMS, THE 06Z NCEP NAM FORECAST BEYOND HOUR 42 IS RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 30-60 MINUTES LATE...OUR PRODUCTION STAFF IS INVESTIGATING...OUR APOLOGIES FOR ANY DIFFICULTY THIS MAY CAUSE... $$ OREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 ^Initialization errors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 ^Initialization errors? No it is just bad data left over from the 12Z December 24th run from a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 No it is just bad data left over from the 12Z December 24th run from a year ago. Ha Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 6z gfs continues with the good pattern that the 0z run showed. 6z GEFS is similiar to the op. Nothing like the Euro. Lets hope the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I have for the most part but it's not completely impossible for it not to snow. Why? It's only December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 If only is in reference to the trough moving in.. FYI 2 meter temperatures at 240 are 40 to about 50 from E central PA into NJ and SNE and ..inland in the 30s! Remember 3 weeks back the Euro was showing that sort of setup 8-10 days out and was horribly wrong, of course back then we had the stubborn SE ridge and the GFS did not agree at all with the Euro's depictions, this time it may hold more merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The big difference between the GFS and ECMWF solutions between 8-10 days, is that ECMWF has flatter ridge over the Rockies. While the GFS has more amplified ridge over the Rockies. A flat ridge would gives less cold weather and no major winter storms. While amplified ridge would gives us more cold and possibly winter storms. The models are typically awful with placement of PNA ridge, at this range. But with the AK vortex, still there, I like a flatter ridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 It figures that last mid February, I finally broke down and brought a snow blower and it doesn't look like I'll get much use, if any, this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Around day 10, the Euro ensemble 500 mb pattern is closer to what we have been seeing so far with more ridging over SE Canada and the Northeast. My guess is that any post frontal cool down is transient with all the mild air back to our west. The 500mb pattern actually matches up with the 96 hr forecast for this week with a warm storm solution followed by a cool down than a return to milder. 96 hr 240hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Epic battle between the Euro and GFS. Lets all root for the GFS. It has looked good for many runs. The Euro is a weenies nightmare. That was a really encouraging post by Isotherm. Maybe the GFS is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel before the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 It figures that last mid February, I finally broke down and brought a snow blower and it doesn't look like I'll get much use, if any, this winter. Good thing they don't expire. I'm sure you'll get some use at some point. Though people will be looking at you funny as you snowblow 3 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Around day 10, the Euro ensemble 500 mb pattern is closer to what we have been seeing so far with more ridging over SE Canada and the Northeast. My guess is that any post frontal cool down is transient with all the mild air back to our west. The 500mb pattern actually matches up with the 96 hr forecast for this week with a warm storm solution followed by a cool down than a return to milder. 96 hr 240hr Seems reasonable. Every cold spell so far has been transient under this pattern, and with no change in sight through the medium range, the pattern should continue to favor these transient cool/cold sells followed by more warmth. Hopefully we can get a bit of snow later on in the medium-long range with at least one of these transient cold spells... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I agree with bluewave's post. Also the GFS is stretching the 70mb warm anomalies into SE Canada and NE US. Causing the vortex to be displaced into the other side of the pole. The would keep flow more progressive and with Pacific flooding the CONUS, in early January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Seems reasonable. Every cold spell so far has been transient under this pattern, and with no change in sight through the medium range, the pattern should continue to favor these transient cool/cold sells followed by more warmth. Hopefully we can get a bit of snow later on in the medium-long range with at least one of these transient cold spells... I agree with bluewave's post. Also the GFS is stretching the 70mb warm anomalies into SE Canada and NE US. Causing the vortex to be displaced into the other side of the pole. The would keep flow more progressive and with Pacific flooding the CONUS, in early January: Yeah, it's tough to go against persistence as long as the AO stays positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Pretty big shift in the GFS for the Tuesday storm. Now has the low passing through south Jersey and then offshore, still all rain (except maybe a little snow on the back end) but a large shift none the less. Also brought that miller b/clipper potential a little more into view. Now has a light snowfall for the area pending surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 GFS still shows a potential clipper for NYE. I love clipper patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?v=9POSq7qJ5Oc Merry Christmas fellow tri state area weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The Euro full phase solution would have more wind potential for our area than the GFS though both models agree on the heavy rain threat. Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The Euro full phase solution would have more wind potential for our area than the GFS though both models agree on the heavy rain threat. Euro GFS Whats it show for the 1/1-1/3 potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Whats it show for the 1/1-1/3 potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Glad to see the storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Whats it show for the 1/1-1/3 potential? It's still early for the depth of the trough, but it moved to last nights ensemble mean. 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Amazing the difference a year makes, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Amazing the difference a year makes, huh? You said it best, John... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Amazing the difference a year makes, huh? This has to take the cake for the most dramatic year to year change in the AO. Interestingly enough, we saw the huge flip last February into the spring. I think the summer going negative again was leading us to believe we would be seeing blocking by now. By October and November you could tell it was going to be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Giants baby!!! And happy holidays to you all be safe and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Giants baby!!! And happy holidays to you all be safe and enjoy! Come chat it up in Sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Come chat it up in Sports. Where is that!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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