mattinpa Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Looks like a gradient type pattern develops towards NYE. After that, the cold air invades the whole country. Now if only we could get a few runs in a row of this. I still like the period around New Year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Now if only we could get a few runs in a row of this. I still like the period around New Year's. It looks like the New Years Eve timeframe will be interesting. A lot of shortwaves running around on the models with a decent high pressure in Quebec. The GEFS have also hinting at something around this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Looks like a gradient type pattern develops towards NYE. After that, the cold air invades the whole country. Euro has record warmth and a horrific pattern. Pattern supports the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Euro has record warmth and a horrific pattern. Pattern supports the euro. Euro might be overdoing the warmth. That was a hideous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Euro ensembles pretty much agrees with the op. quite frankly, untill some major switches the pattern, i'm not excited about any snow event. The +AO and PV near greenland are just killing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Secretly I'm loving the torch. If it's not snowing it might as well be 70's and sunny. As I said before, bring out the tank tops, short shorts and flip flps. Never get tired of seeing that. Feet fetish much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Since no weather to get excited bout, how about the rangers!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 GFS has snow showers and flurries from NYC north on sunday night and snow showers from a clipper near NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Clipper pattern sets up after the midweek storm. Lets hope the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Clipper pattern sets up after the midweek storm. Lets hope the GFS is right. Still showing a low off the coast in this timeframe, too. The high is finally in a good position. We will see if the other models catch on. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Lovely run of the gfs from days 7-15. Too bad it's probably a bs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Still showing a low off the coast in this timeframe, too. The high is finally in a good position. We will see if the other models catch on. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif Snowing at Times Square on NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Lovely run of the gfs from days 7-15. Too bad it's probably a bs run. The ensembles are similiar. 18z was just like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Lovely run of the gfs from days 7-15. Too bad it's probably a bs run. Until I see more runs like this and other models showing similar, I'm not getting excited. At least it's as good as the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Until I see more runs like this and other models showing similar, I'm not getting excited. At least it's as good as the 18z GFS. Cold and stormy in the mid to long range on this run. 1993-1994 look to it. Big PNA ridge in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Cold and stormy in the mid to long range on this run. 1993-1994 look to it. Big PNA ridge in the west. Any hint of blocking? I'm still not great at telling blocking on a map. We need so see a high near Greenland, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Maybe the New Year's storm is not a hoax. Transient -NAO, nice PNA ridge, good positioning of the high. Even light snows would be a treat at this point. Weather.com on the other hand shows a high of 52 on New Years Even and 50 on New Year's day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Any hint of blocking? I'm still not great at telling blocking on a map. We need so see a high near Greenland, right? We didn't have blocking in the traditional sense in 1993-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Tonight's 00z GFS run is probably the best I've seen so far this meteorological winter in terms of the D 10+ H5 pattern. If you scroll through the entire run, note the two distinct pieces of the vortex, one near Greenland, and the other over Alaska. The vortex that's been sedentary to the west of Greenland finally shakes loose, and we begin seeing the first signs of height rises poking into Greenland. Zonal regime turns more meridional. They may be transient at first, but getting periodic height rises up through there is important as it signals the powerful, persistent +NAO signal is reaching its demise, and at the very least, we'll see a return to more neutral NAO and AO values by week 2. Some of the ensemble members off the 18z run actually became quite bullish on the idea of a -AO/-NAO by week 2; I'm interested to see the 00z. I don't believe it's fantasy either, although it's far out in time, the gradual weakening and splitting of the vortex is supported by the stratospheric warming/solar induced perturbation of it. I think a negative AO/NAO could be fair game by the second week of January, and the first week of January looks much more interesting than the coming 5-7 days in terms of cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Until I see more runs like this and other models showing similar, I'm not getting excited. At least it's as good as the 18z GFS. Important not to get carried away. Yes, the last several GFS runs have shown some slight improvement with a little more ridging out west and intermittent/transient blocking in the North Atlantic, but timing would have to perfect to get anything really significant here with each system now appearing to be a very fast mover. And we're probably not quite cold enough at the surface for at least the first event/s/non-event/s in the series. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Tonight's 00z GFS run is probably the best I've seen so far this meteorological winter in terms of the D 10+ H5 pattern. If you scroll through the entire run, note the two distinct pieces of the vortex, one near Greenland, and the other over Alaska. The vortex that's been sedentary to the west of Greenland finally shakes loose, and we begin seeing the first signs of height rises poking into Greenland. Zonal regime turns more meridional. They may be transient at first, but getting periodic height rises up through there is important as it signals the powerful, persistent +NAO signal is reaching its demise, and at the very least, we'll see a return to more neutral NAO and AO values by week 2. Some of the ensemble members off the 18z run actually became quite bullish on the idea of a -AO/-NAO by week 2; I'm interested to see the 00z. I don't believe it's fantasy either, although it's far out in time, the gradual weakening and splitting of the vortex is supported by the stratospheric warming/solar induced perturbation of it. I think a negative AO/NAO could be fair game by the second week of January, and the first week of January looks much more interesting than the coming 5-7 days in terms of cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Important not to get carried away. Yes, the last several GFS runs have shown some slight improvement with a little more ridging out west and intermittent/transient blocking in the North Atlantic, but timing would have to perfect to get anything really significant here with each system now appearing to be a very fast mover. And we're probably not quite cold enough at the surface for at least the first event/s/non-event/s in the series. WX/PT I think all of us would be happy with light to moderate events for now, compared to this past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 ECM does not support what the GFS is serving at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 If ONLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 ECM does not support what the GFS is serving at all! most of the gfs improvements occur during the day 10-15 period in terms of breaking up the PV. Euro only goes out to day 10 but it has a massive trough along the east coast at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 most of the gfs improvements occur during the day 10-15 period in terms of breaking up the PV. Euro only goes out to day 10 but it has a massive trough along the east coast at the end of the run. I thought i read above that the GFS has some sort of "snow" event at 180-192 hrs..New Years eve? That is what i was referring to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I thought i read above that the GFS has some sort of "snow" event at 180-192 hrs..New Years eve? That is what i was referring to! yeah the euro is not even close to having snow then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Maybe the New Year's storm is not a hoax. Transient -NAO, nice PNA ridge, good positioning of the high. Even light snows would be a treat at this point. Weather.com on the other hand shows a high of 52 on New Years Even and 50 on New Year's day lol. I thought you already gave up on this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 If ONLY! Looks like 60+*F temps are possible with 850 mb temps of +10*C in a coastal rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Looks like 60+*F temps are possible with 850 mb temps of +10*C in a coastal rainstorm. If only is in reference to the trough moving in.. FYI 2 meter temperatures at 240 are 40 to about 50 from E central PA into NJ and SNE and ..inland in the 30s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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