Analog96 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Gfs has alot of opportunities for snow. Maybe a Christmas storm? Right where we want it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Gfs has alot of opportunities for snow. Maybe a Christmas storm? I think Christmas would be the best chance. I'm not too big on the upcoming storm yet because models are having a warm surge and it makes sense in this pattern. We both get light snow from a clipper, which I'll take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Not really. This area averages more snow in the first half of March than the first half of December, despite what recent years have shown. The past decade has put December ahead of March for most of us. New Brunswick's averages are 4.8" for December and 4.2" for March. I'll definitely give you the first half of March though for snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The past decade has put December ahead of March for most of us. New Brunswick's averages are 4.8" for December and 4.2" for March. I'll definitely give you the first half of March though for snow potential. I'm only comparing the first half of December with the first half of March. Comparing the second half of March with the second half of December is no contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Marches have sucked around here lately...Imagine if we got 25" instead of 3-6" for the March '01 debacle or if 12/26 of last year went 50 miles further east and our area got what western NJ got. Our decadal average would have been 2" higher as a whole for March. Which I guess is why we have to look at long term averages. The past decade has put December ahead of March for most of us. New Brunswick's averages are 4.8" for December and 4.2" for March. I'll definitely give you the first half of March though for snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Marches have sucked around here lately...Imagine if we got 25" instead of 3-6" for the March '01 debacle or if 12/26 of last year went 50 miles further east and our area got what western NJ got. Our decadal average would have been 2" higher as a whole for March. Which I guess is why we have to look at long term averages. Right. Decadal averagaes don't matter too much, because of such large-scale oscillations. Before the mid-1990s, March had A LOT more snow than December for a while. We're probably going to come out of our snowy December cycle, maybe it's starting this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 700rh looks better then what surface shows on GFS for the Clipper on Sunday.: 12z GGEM now has nothing for Sunday, when last night it also had flurries and -sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 700rh looks better then what surface shows on GFS for the Clipper on Sunday.: 12z GGEM now has nothing for Sunday, when last night it also had flurries and -sn. Let's see what the Euro says. Hoping for a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Latest MJO forecast for the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 ^^ Encouraging sign. Actually, the most encouraging I've seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GEFS has snow flurries and snow showers also on Saturday. The ensemble mean has the low further north than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Latest MJO forecast for the Euro: That's pretty far out into the future, but possible flirting w/ octant 7 in early January would make sense coinciding with the development of blocking (if it occurs of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 ^^ Encouraging sign. Actually, the most encouraging I've seen in a while. That's the first time I've seen anything even remotely close to 7 let alone entering it. Hopefully it plays out like that. It's been a hell of a wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Tail end of the 12Z GFS looks great, ridge axis over Montana, big trough over the east, energy diving down through the TN Valley, this would fit very well with the progged pattern shift in early January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The storm around Christmas eve is the one to watch if we're going to sneak in something in this god-awful pattern. As modeled right now it's not too bad either. Very tight window for something. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/f228.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The storm around Christmas eve is the one to watch if we're going to sneak in something in this god-awful pattern. As modeled right now it's not too bad either. Very tight window for something. http://www.meteo.psu...RF_12z/f228.gif Very much agree John. Next week will almost definitely be some sort of LC/inland runner, with no anchoring HP in SE Canada to force secondary redevelopment. At least with the 12/24 potential we have some moderately cold air pressing down to our west, allowing upper flow on the east coast to briefly back SSW-NNE. Quite a brief window as you said - all about proper timing here. I wouldn't hold my breath but it's a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Very much agree John. Next week will almost definitely be some sort of LC/inland runner, with no anchoring HP in SE Canada to force secondary redevelopment. At least with the 12/24 potential we have some moderately cold air pressing down to our west, allowing upper flow on the east coast to briefly back SSW-NNE. Quite a brief window as you said - all about proper timing here. I wouldn't hold my breath but it's a possibility. The PV positioning makes me cringe, but I guess it's not too bad to have the ridge axis where it's modeled. It will change in a few hours anyway...but the general longwave pattern around the system gives it a slight chance. Which is more interesting than anything we've seen in the last week or more...so I guess its worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The PV positioning makes me cringe, but I guess it's not too bad to have the ridge axis where it's modeled. It will change in a few hours anyway...but the general longwave pattern around the system gives it a slight chance. Which is more interesting than anything we've seen in the last week or more...so I guess its worth looking at. Now that you mention it, looking at the H5 progression for the 12/24 event, it amazes me that the storm is so close to the coast. The PV placement is damn near horrible and would probably mean an out to sea storm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Now that you mention it, looking at the H5 progression for the 12/24 event, it amazes me that the storm is so close to the coast. The PV placement is damn near horrible and would probably mean an out to sea storm verbatim. That could be why there is no real support from the ensemble members at the time frame as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I agree, the threat mid next week will be similar to the one tonight (there isnt one but a brief mix was a concern for a few days). The most anyone can hope for is some mixing at the onset in NW NJ and the Hudson Valley... The "Christmas Storm" is more intreguing, however how the shortwave picks up the cut off low in the SW is always very finicky. Unfortunately, there looks to be no real cold air source again (and why would there with no blocking) and with the pattern favoring lakes cutters, once again I wouldnt get my hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The ensembles are in pretty good agreement (and have been for some time) of a trough and cold air around the 24th and a ridge to the west so thats certainly good news... high lats still look blahh most likely through the beginning of Januaryy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Tail end of the 12Z GFS looks great, ridge axis over Montana, big trough over the east, energy diving down through the TN Valley, this would fit very well with the progged pattern shift in early January I disagree that the h5 setup that is being depicted on the 12z GFS at 384 hours is "great." It looks nice with a +PNA, but you have massive troughing setting up near Greenland, which is an extremely positive NAO, and the trough that is coming into the east in that timeframe would almost definitely be transient. There was a ridge trying to set up near Greenland in the earlier frames, but it is no match for the PV that escorts the ridge eastbound, and replaces it with a trough. Ironically when a ridge is trying to develop in Greenland, there is no troughing in the east at all at 324 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Flurries and snow showers for Saturday and Sunday on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Good evening every body, busy day, did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Good evening every body, busy day, did I miss anything? 18z GFS shows a weak swfe for the 21st. Looks like some frozen precip to start before the warmer air takes over. This is going to change a million times more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Ok back to work, three more weeks till the real change. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 This is for Saturday. The ensembles are more north with this low than the op run. I will be really thrilled to see snow flurries and showers from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The CFS shows a snow event reaching the area around Christmas... (December 26th to be exact) probably not going to verify, but it's nice to see nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Ok back to work, three more weeks till the real change. Night all. Good night ..oh and so I guess we don't expect to see you post for 3 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 NYC has seen more snow than Syracuse. Syracuse has seen only 0.7 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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