Metsfan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well the 12z GFS is running, time to see if we can pull of an upset. The AO is what's going to kill this winter. With this feature being positive the polar jet with the associated shortwaves are way too quick to amplify with the STJ shortwaves. Unitil we can relax the SE ridge, and allow for a slower northern stream, then we could start talking about possible winter type storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 GFS has a apps runner for the 27th. Great, more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well the 12z GFS is running, time to see if we can pull of an upset. No phase again for Christmas. But it out to 90hrs, it's phasing over Ohio Valley, with the next northern stream s/w on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 GFS has a apps runner for the 27th. Great, more rain. How does it go south at hour 96? Some kind of transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 How does it go south at hour 96? Some kind of transfer? Most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Most likely. Even with the transfer up the coast it is warm on this run. We'll have to see what future runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 GFS has a apps runner for the 27th. Great, more rain. That's an April map..I mean there is no cold air anywhere..01-02 the holiday season featured at least below normal temps and massive lake effect snow for a week..I really can't compare this December to any in my lifetime..It has been the worst for any kind of winter weather..and I go back 53 years..just amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Even with the transfer up the coast it is warm on this run. We'll have to see if we what future runs show. Yep, the low goes right over NYC. What we have going for us is the NAO. It's trending downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yep, the low goes right over NYC. What we have going for us is the NAO. It's trending downward. You refuse to learn, why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 You refuse to learn, why is that? What is there to learn? Teach me something Mr. Trials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Just because dec is below normal in snowfall doesnt mean the winter will be too. Likely that this jan /fEB WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHEAST AREA . I expect the I-95 area still to have above normal snowfall this winter season. I expect least two blizzard this winter for the I-95 area . Enjoy now because pay back is coming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 It' doesn't completely phase or really transfer, on the 27th. The 992mb low over Ontario kills the snow threat for much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The NAO looks to go neutral to postive in that figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Just because dec is below normal in snowfall doesnt mean the winter will be too. Likely that this jan /fEB WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHEAST AREA . I expect the I-95 area still to have above normal snowfall this winter season. I expect least two blizzard this winter for the I-95 area . Enjoy now because pay back is coming . The Blizz has spoken. It' doesn't completely phase or really transfer, on the 27th. The 992mb low over Ontario kills the snow threat for much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Yep, no cold air source to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 What is there to learn? Teach me something Mr. Trials. There is no real -nao. Look at the upper level maps. Not graphs. Its a temporary ridge in Greenland that causes the graph to show it negative, but not the -nao that helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Buffalo has only received 3 inches . Normal to date is 29.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yep, the low goes right over NYC. What we have going for us is the NAO. It's trending downward Look at the maps...it's a transient ridge that moves through the central and eastern NAO regions after Day 5 that makes it look like the NAO is going negative. Almost every ensemble mean builds the PV back over Greenland by Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Look at the maps...it's a transient ridge that moves through the central and eastern NAO regions after Day 5 that makes it look like the NAO is going negative. Almost every ensemble mean builds the PV back over Greenland by Day 10. Gotcha. Thanks Earthy and Algeek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Gotcha. Thanks Earthy and Algeek. we have said this to you so many times. Write it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 12Z gfs looks like it wants to bring back the AK vortex, thus bringing back the pac jet from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Just because dec is below normal in snowfall doesnt mean the winter will be too. Likely that this jan /fEB WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHEAST AREA . I expect the I-95 area still to have above normal snowfall this winter season. I expect least two blizzard this winter for the I-95 area . Enjoy now because pay back is coming . Faithfully yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Look at the maps...it's a transient ridge that moves through the central and eastern NAO regions after Day 5 that makes it look like the NAO is going negative. Almost every ensemble mean builds the PV back over Greenland by Day 10. So what you are saying is, im a fast learner, there are still zero signs of a pattern change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Lets be honest. You can blame the PV and AO all you want, but the real reason there are bugs flying around and its hasnt been below freezing in forever is because of the dead bird in Sundog's sig. I'm starting a petition. Remove the bird...or else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Lets be honest. You can blame the PV and AO all you want, but the real reason there are bugs flying around and its hasnt been below freezing in forever is because of the dead bird in Sundog's sig. I'm starting a petition. Remove the bird...or else THIS. We started to make progress till he put that thing up. Total HEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 THIS. We started to make progress till he put that thing up. Total HEX. Yup, right around mid november that thing went up, and Greenland hasnt seen a ridge since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 So what you are saying is, im a fast learner, there are still zero signs of a pattern change... Not until the middle of January. You may start seeing the signs on the ensembles by New Years if we're lucky. But right now all you're going to see is the same thing we have been seeing for 5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Look at the maps...it's a transient ridge that moves through the central and eastern NAO regions after Day 5 that makes it look like the NAO is going negative. Almost every ensemble mean builds the PV back over Greenland by Day 10. Example for Anthony: See that Yellow colored H (306) up north in eastern Greenland? That would cause the -nao chart and graphs to show a temporary -nao. While in reality it is a -nao at that time, it quickly gets moved out: Hour 144 (temporaty -nao): Hour 168 (still there but starting to move out): Hour 192 (gone...Back to a +nao): Is that better Anthony? You see it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Example for Anthony: See that Yellow colored H (306) up north in eastern Greenland? That would cause the -nao chart and graphs to show a temporary -nao. While in reality it is a -nao at that time, it quickly gets movef out: Hour 144 (temporaty -nao): Hour 168 (still there but starting to move out): Hour 192 (gone...Back to a +nao): Is that better Anthony? You see it now? Now I see it. Why would the maps be different though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Now I see it. Why would the maps be different though? Basically what he's trying to say is that although those three maps show a ridge near Greenland at different times, it doesn't have an effect on us because it's moving too fast. So while it will technically register as a neutral or maybe negative NAO on the data, it does nothing for us synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Now I see it. Why would the maps be different though? What do you mean different? The -nao graphs you use calculate mathematically the nao value. At hour 144 and 168, it technically is a -nao value, but as you can see, its not a true -nao and just a temporary high that quikcly gets kicked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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