tmagan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 08Z Observations, isotherms, streamlines. Really tough, nearly impossible to find the warm front here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 What a boring weather pattern . Hope we get some snow next week. I think the only suspense in the upcoming pattern is whether Central Park can finish with zero snow for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I was looking at the forecast MSLP for the U.S. for 06Z Sunday from the RGEM and thought to myself: When was the last time during winter the continental U.S. was covered by so much high pressure, and not have it Arctic in origin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 6z gfs has a coastal storm at 114 hours . It's offshore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I'm more focused on the one at 372 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Everyone should vote for me to win weenie of the year. Thanks. Who would you be running against? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Sounds like the euro weeklies were not as good as we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I still love the first week of January for many reasons... 1) The NAO is forecasted to take a dive the last week of the year. Best case would be for it to go slightly negative, worst case remain slightly positive. 2) For several consecutive runs now, the GFS has been honking at this time period for a pattern change. The SE ridge shifts westward, We get a decent ridge out west, and varying forms of a trough over the east. The PV looks to get disrupted/diplaced enough to allow for a colder more favorable pattern. I'm not saying you can lock this up by any means, but I definitly think we'll do well that week. 3) I'll be in the Bahamas that week, so you can pretty much gurantee a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Another beautiful early spring morning, 48F, if this keeps up, we'll see the flowers start blooming again in no time. highs in the mid to upper 40s and some low 50s in the forecast for the next ten days heading into the new year. So is this an eternal fall or eternal spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Another beautiful early spring morning, 48F, if this keeps up, we'll see the flowers start blooming again in no time. highs in the mid to upper 40s and some low 50s in the forecast for the next ten days heading into the new year. So is this an eternal fall or eternal spring? Definitly an eternal fall, it won't feel like Spring until the sun angle begins to change. As much as I love the cold and the snow, there is a great feeling knowing that the shortest day of the year is now behind us and we have begun the long road towards Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Definitly an eternal fall, it won't feel like Spring until the sun angle begins to change. As much as I love the cold and the snow, there is a great feeling knowing that the shortest day of the year is now behind us and we have begun the long road towards Spring. Daylight wise? Yes. Weather wise? This is as close to early Spring weather as you can get, even mid spring a couple days ago. Last night felt like a mid-late April rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Daylight wise? Yes. Weather wise? This is as close to early Spring weather as you can get, even mid spring a couple days ago. Last night felt like a mid-late April rainstorm. Yeah, but the day light issue is big. It doesn't get dark at 4:30 at the end of March. To me that is the worst part of Winter. It's depressing to get to work in the sun knowing I will be driving home in the dark. At least my office has alot of windows so I get to enjoy the sunlight from indoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Big negatively tilted trough on the 12z NAM. It needs more northern stream phasing and to dig further south but I like it. Looks nothing like the 6z GFS which looks closer to the 6z NAM. Perhaps with the new data the GFS will change its tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Big negatively tilted trough on the 12z NAM. It needs more northern stream phasing and to dig further south but I like it. That is an ugly map. Screams torch for all the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Big negatively tilted trough on the 12z NAM. It needs more northern stream phasing and to dig further south but I like it. Looks nothing like the 6z GFS which looks closer to the 6z NAM. Perhaps with the new data the GFS will change its tune. wow, that is a terrible map, not sure what you are seeing. there is nothing there except pain and lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 That is an ugly map. Screams torch for all the east coast. Initially yes, but with a track further south, a later phase, and more northern stream interaction it would pump up heights offshore instead of along the coast. That is a bundle of energy in the SW just waiting to explode, right now its too amplified to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 From main forum, saying Bret Anderson calling for pattern change second week of jan with a big ssw. As well as euro weeklies being very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Initially yes, but with a track further south, a later phase, and more northern stream interaction it would pump up heights offshore instead of along the coast. That is a bundle of energy in the SW just waiting to explode, right now its too amplified to early. Here is my xmas present to you and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Here is my xmas present to you and Not suprising coming from you And its fun to dream a little bit, I really think that energy in the SW is going to have a major impact somewhere east of the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Not suprising coming from you And its fun to dream a little bit, I really think that energy in the SW is going to have a major impact somewhere east of the MS river. Its total wishcasting and weenism, but at least its in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Its total wishcasting and weenism, but at least its in the banter thread. Indeed, I am joking with you, you take every one of my posts like a heart attack. Let's just cancel the winter, bring back some 70's and hot babes in tank tops, short shorts and flip flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 That is an ugly map. Screams torch for all the east coast. So you get a negatively tiled trough and it bakes the east coast or you have a neutral to positively tilted trough and we get nothing? Come on. Why are people even looking at this at all then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Indeed, I am joking with you, you take every one of my posts like a heart attack. Let's just cancel the winter, bring back some 70's and hot babes in tank tops, short shorts and flip flops. Heyy babes are hot in the winter, leggings and uggs are yummy lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Not for nothing but everyone who is claiming that a BIG pattern change is coming well is right..... Yes, the pattern will change eventually, thus, someone will inevitably be right... However, the bottom line is that lets just face the facts.. Many (and i'm not naming names, b/c i'm not blaming anyone or calling anyone out for being wrong) of the winter forecasts for December and January were flat out wrong.. First the pattern was going to change by Thanksgiving, then mid December, then Christmas time, now the second week of January.. Besides the individuals who were forecasting a warm winter (i'm sure there were a few) - so far, most if not all of the winter forecasts have been wrong.. Again, it's not a big deal.. Sh-t happens.. As everyone has been saying, last year's anomalous pattern (for winter weather) was as extreme as this anomalous pattern (warm and boring) has turned out to be.. Perhaps we'll salvage some sort of a winter pattern in late January and February.. Hey maybe we'll get a Feb 06 type of storm... We all remember 05/06 - a pretty bad winter up until the Feb '06 storm.. So anything can happen, but the analogs of years similar to this aren't to promising.. If they are any indication of what is to come, we're going to have to plan on writing this winter off and take whatever it is this winter plans to provide us.. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Heyy babes are hot in the winter, leggings and uggs are yummy lmao lmao I'm a butt and legs guy. Nothing hotter than a girl wearing booty shorts and flip flops. Skirts are nice too but there is something so innocent about shorts that get me going. It's sort of like the same idea as when a girl bends over and her thong accidently popps out. If it was done purposfully that screams slut, but when its happens accidently its hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 lmao I'm a butt and legs guy. Nothing hotter than a girl wearing booty shorts and flip flops. Skirts are nice too but there is something so innocent about shorts that get me going. It's sort of like the same idea as when a girl bends over and her thong accidently popps out. If it was done purposfully that screams slut, but when its happens accidently its hot. !!!!!! Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I agree 100%. Not for nothing but everyone who is claiming that a BIG pattern change is coming well is right..... Yes, the pattern will change eventually, thus, someone will inevitably be right... However, the bottom line is that lets just face the facts.. Many (and i'm not naming names, b/c i'm not blaming anyone or calling anyone out for being wrong) of the winter forecasts for December and January were flat out wrong.. First the pattern was going to change by Thanksgiving, then mid December, then Christmas time, now the second week of January.. Besides the individuals who were forecasting a warm winter (i'm sure there were a few) - so far, most if not all of the winter forecasts have been wrong.. Again, it's not a big deal.. Sh-t happens.. As everyone has been saying, last year's anomalous pattern (for winter weather) was as extreme as this anomalous pattern (warm and boring) has turned out to be.. Perhaps we'll salvage some sort of a winter pattern in late January and February.. Hey maybe we'll get a Feb 06 type of storm... We all remember 05/06 - a pretty bad winter up until the Feb '06 storm.. So anything can happen, but the analogs of years similar to this aren't to promising.. If they are any indication of what is to come, we're going to have to plan on writing this winter off and take whatever it is this winter plans to provide us.. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I agree 100%. Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well the 12z GFS is running, time to see if we can pull of an upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Another beautiful early spring morning, 48F, if this keeps up, we'll see the flowers start blooming again in no time. highs in the mid to upper 40s and some low 50s in the forecast for the next ten days heading into the new year. So is this an eternal fall or eternal spring? hark I hear no not angels singing, but birds chirping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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