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Second Half of December Weather Banter and Obs


TheTrials

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Am I the only one here who has heard enough about JB?

i for one think that jb is knowledgable with meteorology but he goes overboard alot of times. he's enthusiastic and passionate about weather like us and he puts his head on the chopping block with his forecasts more times than not, alot of times not entirely accurately though lol. The bashing is a little out of hand sometimes and we already or atleast those who have been here for a while have established hes a BIG hype machine. Its all repetitive in hearing about JB and his rants but he does deserve it the way he does put his forecasts out there the way he does i think.

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He said that the pattern is going to change in mid February :bag:

"I say Yet because I am predicting that in February a major east coast snowstorm will hit with amounts in the 12-30 inch range. Why, because we should see the bottom fall out of the La Nina and a snap back to a much colder weather pattern by Mid-Feb. The research I have been doing on this winter shows that about mid-Feb watch out! SO hole on until that time"

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Meanwhile, Norfolk, VA is at 70 degrees Fahrenheit at 0351Z.

If it was 70 F at Norfolk, CT...then I would know *for certain* the world had turned upside down....

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A very pleasant end to the year across the CONUS

I was thinking late yesterday about how many record highs the central Plains will see the middle and end of next week.

By the way, looking at the 10 day forecast for Asia on the 00Z ECMWF, it is hard to see how the current pattern across North America changes anytime soon.

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I was thinking late yesterday about how many record highs the central Plains will see the middle and end of next week.

By the way, looking at the 10 day forecast for Asia on the 00Z ECMWF, it is hard to see how the current pattern across North America changes anytime soon.

It actually goes through changes, but remains in a stalemate essentially.

If you loop through the 500mb height anomalies on the GEFS, you can see what's going on. It's awful and terrible, but worth looking at if for nothing other that comic relief.

The PV over Greenland finally splits after Day 5, opening the door for some ridging to build in. East based, but noticeable. However, at the same time, a new psuedo-PV re-estabilishes as a large vortex over Alaska which is incredibly unfavorable. Finally, after that vortex splits and dies, the PV re-establishes itself over Greenland and the Davis Straight assuring a +NAO.

Fork-in-eye type stuff right here.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

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