MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS says we dont get above freezing around Christmas. Finally GFS has a clipper type pattern in the long range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The Euro is close to bringing the Christmas storm back. The problem is the ridge out west. It's really flat. Lets see what happens after the Friday storm moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 LOL @ the 06Z GFS at 360 hours, a 1061mb high in NW Territories and BC. Interesting nonetheless, 3 of the last 4 runs now have shown some sort of pattern resembling this beyond day 12 and many of the ensemble members have had it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Happy Spring everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 LOL @ the 06Z GFS at 360 hours, a 1061mb high in NW Territories and BC. Interesting nonetheless, 3 of the last 4 runs now have shown some sort of pattern resembling this beyond day 12 and many of the ensemblemembers have had it too. That's great, lets keep them showing it and we just MIGHT get the pattern to change in the next 2 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Happy Spring everyone Greetings from Labrador...The Eskimos are laughing at our blowtorch this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 ensembles are lighting up the new years time frame, probably a warmer solution with a lack of blocking still I think we will be teased with more than a few exciting runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 LOL @ the 06Z GFS at 360 hours, a 1061mb high in NW Territories and BC. Interesting nonetheless, 3 of the last 4 runs now have shown some sort of pattern resembling this beyond day 12 and many of the ensemble members have had it too. yeah and that could expand over the pole and and really help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Happy Spring everyone Yea doesnt even deserve a happy winter because its like spring. Im not gonna be giving up on this winter until the middle of january if nothing changes for the better then im getting ready for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 January cancel calls are going to be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Actually managed to get down to 39.8 at my home this morning, much more like the GFS depicted. The NAM was definitely too warm in my location with the surface temps this morning. I can only assume this will translate forward tonight and the GFS surface temps will work out better than the NAM. Will need a combo of the GFS surface temps with the NAM 850 temps to get a little wet snow in the higher elevations tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think I might fall off my seat. Is this the end of your anti-snow campaign? January cancel calls are going to be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think I might fall off my seat. Is this the end of your anti-snow campaign? I was saying about three weeks ago, little less that we needed to be patient for three weeks. I like what I am seeing starting in January. We almost pulled something off before that for xmas, but alas, this last wave doesnt have enough to bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I remember for years and years that we did not get much in the way of snow here until after New Year's. I remember our first flurries being on Christmas Day and the first real snow being after New Year's almost every year when I was growing up. This fits that pattern. I was saying about three weeks ago, little less that we needed to be patient for three weeks. I like what I am seeing starting in January. We almost pulled something off before that for xmas, but alas, this last wave doesnt have enough to bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I remember for years and years that we did not get much in the way of snow here until after New Year's. I remember our first flurries being on Christmas Day and the first real snow being after New Year's almost every year when I was growing up. This fits that pattern. First flurries during the crappy 90's winters almost always came around Thanksgiving from squalls coming in from the northwest. It was almost like clockwork. Actual snow is a different story. When was the last time we got instability snow showers pop up in the late fall after a strong cold frontal passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah we don't get those much anymore. But also there hasn't been much lake effect in general. In the past some of those snow squalls would survive and make it all the way to the coast. If I recall we had those on the day the US air plane landed in the hudson. It snowed in the morning and then we had some intense snow showers that afternoon. But that of course was January not November. First flurries during the crappy 90's winters almost always came around Thanksgiving from squalls coming in from the northwest. It was almost like clockwork. Actual snow is a different story. When was the last time we got instability snow showers pop up in the late fall after a strong cold frontal passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 NAM came way north and very warm at 12z. Pretty much gives nobody snow. Not even SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 NAM came way north and very warm at 12z. Pretty much gives nobody snow. Not even SNE. and there you have it. so much for the "new Nam" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Nam has ALWAYS been poor in SWFE, but its fun watching the nam and euro get owned by the gfs of course the solution is 50 degree rain but who cares. THe NAM is a god awful model, and fooked up when its supposed to be at its best LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Wow...forget double posting, sundog just broke the record with a quintuple post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Nam has ALWAYS been poor in SWFE, but its fun watching the nam and euro get owned by the gfs of course the solution is 50 degree rain but who cares. THe NAM is a god awful model, and fooked up when its supposed to be at its best LOL GFS definetely owned every model. Never had the euro fantasy Christmas storm and was always on the warm and north train for tomorrow's "snow" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 You know the pattern is horrendous when the 12z NAM has -12.5 850's for Christmas Eve and High temps still manage to get to 38-40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Man, we are just PAYING for last year, aren't we... This pattern refuses to break.. It's like an extended fall.. It's really the COMPLETE opposite of last year.. Mother Nature sure knows how play with us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Man, we are just PAYING for last year, aren't we... This pattern refuses to break.. It's like an extended fall.. It's really the COMPLETE opposite of last year.. Mother Nature sure knows how play with us... Was going to make a joke about a penn state coach here, but didn't. Not sure how mods would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Was going to make a joke about a penn state coach here, but didn't. Not sure how mods would take it. I would say not cool and don't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 First flurries during the crappy 90's winters almost always came around Thanksgiving from squalls coming in from the northwest. It was almost like clockwork. Actual snow is a different story. When was the last time we got instability snow showers pop up in the late fall after a strong cold frontal passage? The hardest snowfall ive seen besides 12/25/02 was a snow squall passage around that year as well it was quick but it came down hard and furious with the winds as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I remember mid 90s one time, i think it was january, i was around 10 or 11, a snow squall came through around 6 or 7 pm and i was in a class, when we came out there was 2 inches on the ground, must have fallen in about 20 minutes, was awesome and never seen a snow squall on the island like that since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 After the "front," it's 56.4/47. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 picked a great day to hit the links! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Time to be desperate JB in his morning blog said that he expects snow along the coast on Christmas. He expects the storm to amplify and trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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