jm1220 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I don't agree with that statement. I'm not going to get all excited over a few runs at 180hrs plus but its something to watch. If you take a look at the evolution of the CMC run, it't alot like some of our past big storms. Energy ejects out of the SW, then phases with northern stream energy over the MS Valley. Then bam. Temps would still be marginal in the city on this run, but its a step in the right direction. The NAO is forecasted to take a dip, and become either neutral or slightly negative for a short period of time. The NAO forecasts have been horrible for the last couple of months and way too negative vs. verification. I think it will have to reverse itself eventually, but for the time being it's hard for me to see how we get any appreciable snow with the SE Ridge as monstrous as it is (absolutely refuses to budge on the Euro all the way out to day 10) and the PV over Greenland. Can't get much more unfavorable than that. It's a pattern that favors the Lakes and Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 You guys seem to be forgetting that the 12z ECWMF had this storm yesterday, then it lost it on the 00z run. Its perfectly normal for models to flip flop back and forth at this range. The CMC is definitly not the greatest model at that range, but this is the first real threat we have had to track since October, even if this fizzles out as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Not forgetting, just saying that the one that fits the pattern is the latest Euro run, not the previous one, but who knows. It is still 10 days away. Good discussion though. You guys seem to be forgetting that the 12z ECWMF had this storm yesterday, then it lost it on the 00z run. Its perfectly normal for models to flip flop back and forth at this range. The CMC is definitly not the greatest model at that range, but this is the first real threat we have had to track since October, even if this fizzles out as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 You guys seem to be forgetting that the 12z ECWMF had this storm yesterday, then it lost it on the 00z run. Its perfectly normal for models to flip flop back and forth at this range. The CMC is definitly not the greatest model at that range, but this is the first real threat we have had to track since October, even if this fizzles out as time goes on. Pattern supports a lakes cutter or a warm coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Our best shot of snow, for the forseeable future, is the weak clipper like system for Sunday afternoon. Let's hope models increase the qpf on it to at least .10", so maybe we can see a dusting. Other then that, doesn't look promising, for the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Our best shot of snow, for the forseeable future, is the weak clipper like system for Sunday afternoon. Let's hope models increase the qpf on it to at least .10", so maybe we can see a dusting. Other then that, doesn't look promising, for the next 7-10 days. Its not going to snow in this pattern, Im just hoping for extended cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Some of you guys need to read more and post less, and read more of the main thread topics. There are some excellent posts in the main thread medium range forecast which support an east coast system in the 8-10 day range and why this pattern could relax early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thanks for the info. Will take a look. How about being a little nicer though? Some of you guys need to read more and post less, and read more of the main thread topics. There are some excellent posts in the main thread medium range forecast which support an east coast system in the 8-10 day range and why this pattern could relax early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thanks for the info. Will take a look. How about being a little nicer though? Yeah wasn't trying to be nasty, the lack of scientific evedince that appears here sometimes gets on my nerves. I don't pretend to be a met, but I typically have at least something to back up what i post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The lack of any winter storm to track and the terrible pattern is really getting to alot of the members now. The proof is the posts yanksfan lol but your right the forecast discussion thread has really got some good reads right now regarding the pattern relaxing in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The lack of any winter storm to track and the terrible pattern is really getting to alot of the members now. The proof is the posts yanksfan lol but your right the forecast discussion thread has really got some good reads right now regarding the pattern relaxing in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well, I am going on a cruise to the Bahamas from January 1-7 so you can pretty much count on a HECS while I'm away. It always seems to snow big around here when I go on vacation. I was in Florida for PDII. Snowy Decembers and the NYC metro don't mix well. Meteorological winter is still a week away and weenies are already jumping off buildings. The past few winters have really spoiled alot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well, I am going on a cruise to the Bahamas from January 1-7 so you can pretty much count on a HECS while I'm away. It always seems to snow big around here when I go on vacation. I was in Florida for PDII. Snowy Decembers and the NYC metro don't mix well. Meteorological winter is still a week away and weenies are already jumping off buildings. The past few winters have really spoiled alot of people. yea i agree...im going to hawaii jan 3-8 and i know it will snow during that time period...btw, the highest mountain in hawaii actually gets snow, maybe ill check it out...imagine the only snow i see this winter besides october is in hawaii! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 yea i agree...im going to hawaii jan 3-8 and i know it will snow during that time period...btw, the highest mountain in hawaii actually gets snow, maybe ill check it out...imagine the only snow i see this winter besides october is in hawaii! Yes, I believe last year all 50 states had measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Just an observation, the 6z GEFS Spaghetti support east coast LP in the 8-11 day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yes, when I travelled to Hawaii, I went to the top of Mauna Kea and Mouna Loa and it was snowing on both. Even had thundersnow! yea i agree...im going to hawaii jan 3-8 and i know it will snow during that time period...btw, the highest mountain in hawaii actually gets snow, maybe ill check it out...imagine the only snow i see this winter besides october is in hawaii! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 The CMC 00z run picked up on the 12z EC coastal this only has one way to go, bad. This will be an inland runner or a coastal. Terrible setup for east coast snow with no block, no 50/50 pv in central canada and HP slipping off the coast. Vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yes, that is about what I saw too. This pattern is terrible. this only has one way to go, bad. This will be an inland runner or a coastal. Terrible setup for east coast snow with no block, no 50/50 pv in central canada and HP slipping off the coast. Vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS continues to have flurries for Sunday night. Its all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Temps will be higher than progged today, already 49 in the park. I was noticing today there are STILL quite a few trees here around Midtown east with mostly green leaves (I mean a good number have become 70-80% leaf-less but there are a fair number that still think it's mid Oct or something). Rose plants along the east river still blooming. Sorry, this is bizarre. NYC is above 40N for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS continues to have flurries for Sunday night. Its all we got. Maybe we can get it to come further south in future runs and bomb out...lol. At least it is something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Maybe we can get it to come further south in future runs and bomb out...lol. At least it is something. Id be happy with what the GFS is showing. 10 flurries an hour for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Christmas Miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Id be happy with what the GFS is showing. 10 flurries an hour for a couple hours. How does the pattern after Xmass look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well, I am going on a cruise to the Bahamas from January 1-7 so you can pretty much count on a HECS while I'm away. It always seems to snow big around here when I go on vacation. I was in Florida for PDII. Snowy Decembers and the NYC metro don't mix well. Meteorological winter is still a week away and weenies are already jumping off buildings. The past few winters have really spoiled alot of people. Actually meteorological winter started on December 1st; if we get no snow the rest of the month, 1/3 of winter is down the proverbial crapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS continues to have flurries for Sunday night. Its all we got. #desperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Actually meteorological winter started on December 1st; if we get no snow the rest of the month, 1/3 of winter is down the proverbial crapper. Not really. This area averages more snow in the first half of March than the first half of December, despite what recent years have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 #desperate Its all we got for the next 10 days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Gfs has alot of opportunities for snow. Maybe a Christmas storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Why are you using the first and last snow events as the edges of winter? And you're not even using the actual last event either. December was very cold almost from the get go, that's winter to me. We also had a coating in mid December. Then we had ice storms in early February. And then there was 3-5 inches of snow on February 21st. I saved a screenshot of my phone from that date that captured LGA reporting heavy snow and 28 degrees. Yeah last winter was one of the best on record for this area, there's no two ways about it. December was cold from start to finish, the blizzard snow stayed on the ground until mid February (one of the only winters I can remember snowpack on top of snowpack), January was remarkable, February had snow on the ground much of the month which counts for me. Factors for "winter": 1)Snow falling, 2)Snow on the ground, 3)Cold pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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