Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The GFS just went crazy with the New Years Eve storm. It now has a 991mb low over the Delmarva at 252 hrs that it then further bombs to a 974mb low in the Gulf of Maine at 264 hrs. Of course the 850's are too warm for us by about 50 miles again to our NW, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 my crystal shows Late Feb to Early Mar as the best time frame for winter weather.....its the same ball that predicted this years Heisman winner and the first black president in American history. Although its also the same ball that predicted the end of SteveD weather predictions, which obv hasnt worked out YET. 36F in Danbury with no wind. Anticipating a few sprinkles overnight. Ah yes, winter coming in with a vengeance this year *puke*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hey look, happy new year Awesome! I get to use the canoe I'm getting for Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Maybe this year we will have a great February and March. Last year, we had a great end of December through January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well, looking at the GFS around New Years is like fantasy. The models can't even agree for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Maybe this year we will have a great February and March. Last year, we had a great end of December through January. Betting for a good late winter is like expecting a 3 legged horse to win the Kentucky Derby, odds are you will be completely screwed but that's I'll keep my hopes up. I shouldn't complain too much if this winter sucks which it probably will, the last two seasons have been amazing and historical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well, looking at the GFS around New Years is like fantasy. The models can't even agree for Christmas. at this point...all we have to hold onto, is fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well, looking at the GFS around New Years is like fantasy. The models can't even agree for Christmas. Many people are getting desperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Many people are getting desperate I may just avoid the board until some better runs. It gets depressing seeing the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Are we ever going to see this again this winter? This is from the October snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You know what's even more depressing? Even the lows will struggle to get down to freezing in the next 5-7 days as of now and you can forget about hitting the freezing mark in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Are we ever going to see this again this winter? This is from the October snowstorm. I think we see some snow. It just may take either the second half of winter or something well-timed. If it's not a good winter, we can't complain too much - we had 2 very good ones in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You know what's even more depressing? Even the lows will struggle to get down to freezing in the next 5-7 days as of now and you can forget about hitting the freezing mark in the city. Friday night/Saturday morning has a shot at below freezing for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Are we ever going to see this again this winter? This is from the October snowstorm. Not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not likely Unless we all live to be 400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This has to be the worst pattern since 2001-2002, absolutely atrocious. I"m really doubting we even see measurable snowfall this winter and that the October snow will be the heaviest all season. The latest gfs run completely drains all of the cold, it's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Damn, these models flip flop more than Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 There might be some sleet for some, over the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 <Laughs at all the depressing posts based on a few bad weeks> I don't think you can call yourself a hardcore NYC winter weather fan unless you lived through the 1970's and 1980's in the area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 the 2001-02 winter was a warm dry one...So far this year is a warm wet one... As long as it stays wet or average precipitation we have a chance for a big snow...This year might turn out to be a one week winter similar to 2007-08 or 1974-75... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 At this time in 1966, we were getting ready for a big snowstorm. Upton had measured just 10.9" of snow for the 1966-67 winter as of February 1, 1967...but by April 1, 1967...they had measured 74.9". http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Upton had measured just 10.9" of snow for the 1966-67 winter as of February 1, 1967...but by April 1, 1967...they had measured 74.9". http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm before the Christmas 1966 storm there was a storm that busted a few days before...The forecast was for snow but it changed to rain quickly...When I thought all was lost we got an inch over night as the rain changed back to snow...If it wasn't for a change to sleet in the afternoon during the Christmas storm we would have seen a few more inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 before the Christmas 1966 storm there was a storm that busted a few days before...The forecast was for snow but it changed to rain quickly...When I thought all was lost we got an inch over night as the rain changed back to snow...If it wasn't for a change to sleet in the afternoon during the Christmas storm we would have seen a few more inches... Yeah...can't say I remember it Unc as I did not move to the Island until October, 1971... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 the 2001-02 winter was a warm dry one...So far this year is a warm wet one... As long as it stays wet or average precipitation we have a chance for a big snow...This year might turn out to be a one week winter similar to 2007-08 or 1974-75... This is true. It could always pull an '83 if there are storms around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 <Laughs at all the depressing posts based on a few bad weeks> I don't think you can call yourself a hardcore NYC winter weather fan unless you lived through the 1970's and 1980's in the area.... hence why you don't see me complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 1983 was a raging Niño, this year we have la Nada with a raging + AO that doesn't seem to want to budge. Until that happens, I fear Don S. will be correct in his ~ 10" forecast. Can't complain thought, from March 2009 to Oct 2011 was truely epic and has spoiled a lot of folks east of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 metfan is getting to measure the 10 flakes he hopes to get from the xmas fantasy snow bomb on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 1983 was a raging Niño, this year we have la Nada with a raging + AO that doesn't seem to want to budge. Until that happens, I fear Don S. will be correct in his ~ 10" forecast. Can't complain thought, from March 2009 to Oct 2011 was truely epic and has spoiled a lot of folks east of I95. I only used 1983 as an example as a one-trick pony winter, because most people here can remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That was a truely epic storm in a snowless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I only used 1983 as an example as a one-trick pony winter, because most people here can remember that. most people here weren't born my friend, so not sure it helps. Anyway, even if we get no more snow this winter, nothing to complain about given what we have experienced from December 2009 through October 31 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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