MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 earthlight just texted me. Huge storm next xmas. Your call last year was almost pefect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Lol! He is puttting out a first call map soon, I just caught a sneak preview. Doesn't look good for YanksFan27 I'm afraid. Sits right between two megabands undereath 15dbz echos for 30 straight hours. Only gets 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Don S said it was strengthening rapidly Donny In the long-range, one is seeing a shrinking of the area of warm anomalies and deepening cold ones. That could be an indication of a lack of blocking in the long-range. If the long-range forecast plays out, the polar vortex would strengthen anew and a strong AO+ regime would reassert itself. That would increase prospects for warmth in the East, especially if a PNA- setup is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 He is puttting out a first call map soon, I just caught a sneak preview. Doesn't look good for YanksFan27 I'm afraid. Sits right between two megabands undereath 15dbz echos for 30 straight hours. Only gets 3 inches. Okay, good enough for a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 earthlight just texted me. Huge storm next xmas. He don't text me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Theres a reason our average snowfall is not 60 inches a year...some years we get 60, some years we get 2, average it out in the middle, around 30 and there you go...we are in the low end of the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 He don't text me Well, its not to late to buy him a Christmas present. He probably would like one of those cool weather radios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Region 3.4 is down to -0.77c per latest weekly. Down from -0.9c a couple weeks ago, so we're already in the weakening stages... Is it possible that this Nina isn't the driving force behind this horrific pattern and just the major players on the field like the AO and NAO are coincidentally screwed up? -QBO and weak Nina with no blocking, with last year a strong Nina +QBO major blocking... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/nino_3.4.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Getting a light sleet/snow combo here. Temp. 38.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 JB sez quit worshiping models--most to see some snow next week...battle line in cities, best stuff N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 JB sez quit worshiping models--most to see some snow next week...battle line in cities, best stuff N and W yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 JB sez quit worshiping models--most to see some snow next week...battle line in cities, best stuff N and W Mommy make it stop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Mommy make it stop... One day hell get tired of hearing himself talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I guess the GFS still has it's southeast bias, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 One day hell get tired of hearing himself talk nope, these kind of people go on and on and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 im gonna start tracking the new years storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well, its not to late to buy him a Christmas present. He probably would like one of those cool weather radios. I want a cool radio. im gonna start tracking the new years storm Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 on a serious note-how many times has the GFS lost a storm in this range only to get it back 36-48 hrs before...most recently I believe the halloween storm was lost and last year's 12/26 storm was lost by all models before suddenly reappearing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This has to be the worst pattern since 2001-2002, absolutely atrocious. I"m really doubting we even see measurable snowfall this winter and that the October snow will be the heaviest all season. The latest gfs run completely drains all of the cold, it's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The 12z control run of the Euro is much colder than the op run for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Interestingly, this fits the pattern. There was a lot of research about a correlation between October snow and how much snow we get during the winter and the answer was that we usually get less snow during the winter after an October snow. This has to be the worst pattern since 2001-2002, absolutely atrocious. I"m really doubting we even see measurable snowfall this winter and that the October snow will be the heaviest all season. The latest gfs run completely drains all of the cold, it's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This has to be the worst pattern since 2001-2002, absolutely atrocious. I"m really doubting we even see measurable snowfall this winter and that the October snow will be the heaviest all season. The latest gfs run completely drains all of the cold, it's insane. I thought the same thing in December 1999 and we turned that around okay in early 2000 with 15-20 inches of snow for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Given how this season has been, I wouldn't be surprised if we are warm and snowless for Jan and Feb and then get some freak snowstorm for mid-late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Interestingly, this fits the pattern. There was a lot of research about a correlation between October snow and how much snow we get during the winter and the answer was that we usually get less snow during the winter after an October snow. with such a limited sample base....its irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Given how this season has been, I wouldn't be surprised if we are warm and snowless for Jan and Feb and then get some freak snowstorm for mid-late March. If we transitioning into an El Nino I'd like that idea, but most of the climate models do not currently forecast that for next year. The springs with the La Nina-El Nino transition have had some very good snow events for the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hey look, happy new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hey look, happy new year Another interior snowstorm. What a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If we transitioning into an El Nino I'd like that idea, but most of the climate models do not currently forecast that for next year. The springs with the La Nina-El Nino transition have had some very good snow events for the NE. A la nina wouldn't be so bad if we did have some kind of high latitude blocking, I mean it can work out like last year. Even El Ninos can be really bad if we don't have no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18z GEFS shows no christmas storm once again. Another interior snowstorm. What a surprise. HM likes a storm around this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm hoping for a christmas miracle and that's it, maybe the models will completely change in a couple days, its highly unlikely but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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