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Second Half of December Weather Banter and Obs


TheTrials

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Don S said it was strengthening rapidly

Donny

In the long-range, one is seeing a shrinking of the area of warm anomalies and deepening cold ones. That could be an indication of a lack of blocking in the long-range. If the long-range forecast plays out, the polar vortex would strengthen anew and a strong AO+ regime would reassert itself. That would increase prospects for warmth in the East, especially if a PNA- setup is in place.

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Region 3.4 is down to -0.77c per latest weekly.

Down from -0.9c a couple weeks ago, so we're already in the weakening stages...

Is it possible that this Nina isn't the driving force behind this horrific pattern and just the major players on the field like the AO and NAO are coincidentally screwed up? -QBO and weak Nina with no blocking, with last year a strong Nina +QBO major blocking...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/nino_3.4.txt

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Interestingly, this fits the pattern. There was a lot of research about a correlation between October snow and how much snow we get during the winter and the answer was that we usually get less snow during the winter after an October snow.

This has to be the worst pattern since 2001-2002, absolutely atrocious. I"m really doubting we even see measurable snowfall this winter and that the October snow will be the heaviest all season. The latest gfs run completely drains all of the cold, it's insane.

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This has to be the worst pattern since 2001-2002, absolutely atrocious. I"m really doubting we even see measurable snowfall this winter and that the October snow will be the heaviest all season. The latest gfs run completely drains all of the cold, it's insane.

I thought the same thing in December 1999 and we turned that around okay in early 2000 with 15-20 inches of snow for most of the area.

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Given how this season has been, I wouldn't be surprised if we are warm and snowless for Jan and Feb and then get some freak snowstorm for mid-late March.

If we transitioning into an El Nino I'd like that idea, but most of the climate models do not currently forecast that for next year. The springs with the La Nina-El Nino transition have had some very good snow events for the NE.

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If we transitioning into an El Nino I'd like that idea, but most of the climate models do not currently forecast that for next year. The springs with the La Nina-El Nino transition have had some very good snow events for the NE.

A la nina wouldn't be so bad if we did have some kind of high latitude blocking, I mean it can work out like last year. Even El Ninos can be really bad if we don't have no blocking.

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