WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Cold is a good thing. Be optimistic. Maybe the model and you are right. Trend baby trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 very common in very mild winters..01-02 I think I had to mow the grass in February Yeah I've seen them come up in late January/February...ive seen the cherry blossoms come out in DC in February...but never have I seen/noticed daffodils being fooled to come out on December 20th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 yea..why freeze your ass off for no reason Because it is winter in NYC and that is what is supposed to happen. If people don't want or like the cold in winter in this area even if there is no snow, move to friggin Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Congrats Roger Smith? Due to the nature of this forecast, I will make it very brief. The annual number crunch for my research method reveals a very mild pattern for the Great Lakes and northeast lasting through much of December and January, but a flip-flop to a very cold pattern by end of February into March. This seems a lot like 1967 as an analogue, so it suggests the wait for big-time winter storms may require patience, but could eventually be rewarded, by a developing strong storm track dropping south from a position through the Great Lakes in late January to the east coast in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I **** you not, I just spotted a group of daffodils starting to come out of the ground by my mail box... We have rose plants still blooming here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Congrats Roger Smith? At this time in 1966, we were getting ready for a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 At this time in 1966, we were getting ready for a big snowstorm. Good karma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm telling you man, I don't like that modelling is beginning to get more consistent with this vortex signature over Alaska. If this comes to frution, I may pull the plug. And by pull the plug, I mean abandon a winter with near-above normal snowfall. A feature like this developing once again could potentially smash January over the head with a 2 by 4 rendering us miserable. Compared to last winter it's been so damn depressing reading these threads and looking at modelling lately. Do I believe it? Not yet, the signal's too far away. But I'd rather not seeit at all ,that's for sure. I agree. I've noticed, also, that historically you can often get the PV to re establish even after a brief split/disintegration. So if that Alaska death vortex were to come to fruition, we could be in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Happy Hanukah fellow snow dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Look on the bright side. At least we won't have to deal with bitterly cold and dry air behind rainstorms like we did back in 2007-08. This pattern would engulf the whole US with so much Pacific air that there would be barely any cold air below Hudson Bay, unless people actually like frigid dry air w/no snowcover. In my opinion, if there's no threat of any snow, let it at least be mild so I can walk outside. Well, you see, the thing is...I'm one of those sick twisted freaks that enjoys the cold almost as much as snow. So to me I'd rather have 30s as highs over 50s in the middle winter. We have plenty of warmth as it is the rest of the year. As for walking around - just bundle up; it's not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Roger Smith Big storm dates for the east coast -- Feb 15-25 looks best. 2 months to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well, you see, the thing is...I'm one of those sick twisted freaks that enjoys the cold almost as much as snow. So to me I'd rather have 30s as highs over 50s in the middle winter. We have plenty of warmth as it is the rest of the year. As for walking around - just bundle up; it's not bad. It's only bad if it gets windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Glenn Schwartz had 30-40" forecast for Philly this winter, I wonder what's going through his head right now. I feel like he's been making a revision almost every year around new Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It's only bad if it gets windy. Naaah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Glenn Schwartz had 30-40" forecast for Philly this winter, I wonder what's going through his head right now. I feel like he's been making a revision almost every year around new Years. didn't philly get 2 feet from the halloween storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This December really goes to show that blocking, for our area, is much more important than ENSO state. Last Dec we had a strong -NAO with a powerful Nina, and no SE ridge whatsoever. This year we've got a weak nina - not impressive at all - and the SE ridge has been dominating from FL to ME due to the lack of blocking. Floridians are experiencing a significantly warmer Dec than the past 2 years down there - temps consistently in the 80s lately compared to 50s/60s the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well, you see, the thing is...I'm one of those sick twisted freaks that enjoys the cold almost as much as snow. So to me I'd rather have 30s as highs over 50s in the middle winter. We have plenty of warmth as it is the rest of the year. As for walking around - just bundle up; it's not bad. I am with you on that. Things indeed look bleak now but I am holding on to what you are expecting per your winter forecast and am going down with the ship lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 didn't philly get 2 feet from the halloween storm? I wish. I recorded 4" about 20 miles NW of Philly in Villanova, but center city didn't pencil in more than a trace IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This December really goes to show that blocking, for our area, is much more important than ENSO state. Last Dec we had a strong -NAO with a powerful Nina, and no SE ridge whatsoever. This year we've got a weak nina - not impressive at all - and the SE ridge has been dominating from FL to ME due to the lack of blocking. Floridians are experiencing a significantly warmer Dec than the past 2 years down there - temps consistently in the 80s lately compared to 50s/60s the last 2 winters. I've been saying that for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18z DGEX doesn't show a Christmas storm. It looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 This December really goes to show that blocking, for our area, is much more important than ENSO state. Last Dec we had a strong -NAO with a powerful Nina, and no SE ridge whatsoever. This year we've got a weak nina - not impressive at all - and the SE ridge has been dominating from FL to ME due to the lack of blocking. Floridians are experiencing a significantly warmer Dec than the past 2 years down there - temps consistently in the 80s lately compared to 50s/60s the last 2 winters. may want to check your nina numbers, isn't it moderate now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I've been saying that for a long time. I know, many of us have, it's just interesting to point out how powerful the SE ridge is given the Nina event is barely weak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The the AK vortex keeps getting bigger/deeper Euro Ensemble mean. This is a 6-10 day mean for 500mb height and 850mb temp anomalies. I think we are screwed through at least mid January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Glenn Schwartz had 30-40" forecast for Philly this winter, I wonder what's going through his head right now. I feel like he's been making a revision almost every year around new Years. Can't forecast too specifically that far into the future. More correctly an outlook. The hurricane gurus finally admitted it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 may want to check your nina numbers, isn't it moderate now? Region 3.4 is down to -0.77c per latest weekly. Down from -0.9c a couple weeks ago, so we're already in the weakening stages... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/nino_3.4.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The the AK vortex keeps getting bigger/deeper Euro Ensemble mean. This is a 6-10 day mean for 500mb height and 850mb temp anomalies. I think we are screwed through at least mid January: What a hideous looking map. Mid January might be an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 earthlight just texted me. Huge storm next xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Region 3.4 is down to -0.77c per latest weekly. Down from -0.9c a couple weeks ago, so we're already in the weakening stages... http://www.bom.gov.a...so/nino_3.4.txt Don S said it was strengthening rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 earthlight just texted me. Huge storm next xmas. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 earthlight just texted me. Huge storm next xmas. I wish I can post the texts he's been sending me after the 0z models last night and after the 12z models today. Classic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.