JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 With about 5-7 days to go before the storm arrives, all of this negativity is a bit premature imo. You don't want to see a direct hit this far out anyway. It would never work out that way. Keep hope alive! Think Snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 ggem over amp'd, GFS ots, Euro down the middle. possible, we shall see in 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I can beat Josh in mini golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Total electric bath on the GEFS height anomalies. Huge vortex builds over Alaska around Days 5-7. Then it finally breaks up, and it's only hours before the PV re-establishes itself over Greenland and the Davis Straight. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Total electric bath on the GEFS height anomalies. Huge vortex builds over Alaska around Days 5-7. Then it finally breaks up, and it's only hours before the PV re-establishes itself over Greenland and the Davis Straight. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Pretty soon all we will have left is remember when threads but look at it this way, only three months till severe season starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 this winter is terribly awful and shows no signs of getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Someone said gfs end sets up -nao end of month, any truth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Someone said gfs end sets up -nao end of month, any truth? it had some higher heights try to get over greenland but the AO is so bad it makes little headway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 it had some higher heights try to get over greenland but the AO is so bad it makes little headway Gotcha thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Lol that october snowstorm really spoiled people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm going to lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm going to lose it. Its extremely frustrating, but we have said all along that the pattern is horrible. This should come as no surprise really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 time to fast forward and get to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Which of course is when we'll get a big snowstorm time to fast forward and get to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Total electric bath on the GEFS height anomalies. Huge vortex builds over Alaska around Days 5-7. Then it finally breaks up, and it's only hours before the PV re-establishes itself over Greenland and the Davis Straight. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html I'm telling you man, I don't like that modelling is beginning to get more consistent with this vortex signature over Alaska. If this comes to frution, I may pull the plug. And by pull the plug, I mean abandon a winter with near-above normal snowfall. A feature like this developing once again could potentially smash January over the head with a 2 by 4 rendering us miserable. Compared to last winter it's been so damn depressing reading these threads and looking at modelling lately. Do I believe it? Not yet, the signal's too far away. But I'd rather not seeit at all ,that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 All those who hug the GFS make me laugh. When the long range looks nothing like it is showing and turns out not that bad, I'll be sure to laugh at all this whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Which of course is when we'll get a big snowstorm a big Greenland block will develop in late March and on opening day there will be rain with high in the low 40's..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Its pretty darn cold waiting for the bus in Mahattan. Skies are overcast and wishing for just a flurry or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 a big Greenland block will develop in late March and on opening day there will be rain with high in the low 40's..lol Second year Nina's tend to feature crappy/cold springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18z Nam is a little colder but it probably doesn't mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18z Nam is a little colder but it probably doesn't mean anything Its not colder. Surface temps are in the mid 40's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I **** you not, I just spotted a group of daffodils starting to come out of the ground by my mail box... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM does have mood flakes though for Christmas eve night. As evidenced by the sim radar at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm telling you man, I don't like that modelling is beginning to get more consistent with this vortex signature over Alaska. If this comes to frution, I may pull the plug. And by pull the plug, I mean abandon a winter with near-above normal snowfall. A feature like this developing once again could potentially smash January over the head with a 2 by 4 rendering us miserable. Compared to last winter it's been so damn depressing reading these threads and looking at modelling lately. Do I believe it? Not yet, the signal's too far away. But I'd rather not seeit at all ,that's for sure. Look on the bright side. At least we won't have to deal with bitterly cold and dry air behind rainstorms like we did back in 2007-08. This pattern would engulf the whole US with so much Pacific air that there would be barely any cold air below Hudson Bay, unless people actually like frigid dry air w/no snowcover. In my opinion, if there's no threat of any snow, let it at least be mild so I can walk outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Its not colder. Surface temps are in the mid 40's: Northwest burbs might actually see some snow on the Nam if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I **** you not, I just spotted a group of daffodils starting to come out of the ground by my mail box... very common in very mild winters..01-02 I think I had to mow the grass in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Northwest burbs might actually see some snow on the Nam if it verified. No. Temps are 37-39 for NWNJ. Snow line is well north of the city and Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 very common in very mild winters..01-02 I think I had to mow the grass in February I remember playing stickball and going to L and B with my dad on New Years eve in 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Look on the bright side. At least we won't have to deal with bitterly cold and dry air behind rainstorms like we did back in 2007-08. This pattern would engulf the whole US with so much Pacific air that there would be barely any cold air below Hudson Bay, unless people actually like frigid dry air w/no snowcover. In my opinion, if there's no threat of any snow, let it at least be mild so I can walk outside. yea..why freeze your ass off for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Turns out I was really lucky to have posted some images from my model archive from last December in the thread... my computer suddenly crashed this afternoon and died with my backup mysteriously lost - I lost all of my weather files, including my model archieves, my experiments on the pattern this fall, daily weather records since 2006... I have a few basic weather links memorized such as Raleighwx, obviously the NWS, and wunderground, but I lost pretty much everything else. I'm trying to rebuild my weather files, while I have a few of them I would really appreciate it if I could have some of the other weather links so at least I can have somewhere to start from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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