SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looking at that disturbance down by New Orleans it looks like before the Boxing Day storm, but of course the northern stream disturbance is a solid 12-18 slower than it was in the 2010 storm...AND alot more east as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looking at that disturbance down by New Orleans it looks like before the Boxing Day storm, but of course the northern stream disturbance is a solid 12-18 slower than it was in the 2010 storm. the ridge out west is pitiful in that setup just look at how much better the ridge is on the near mis form the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 the ridge out west is pitiful in that setup just look at how much better the ridge is on the near mis form the 18z gfs Its amazing when we look back at setups in the 80s and 90s that the models may have missed how we can now pick out why. It just goes to show you how even back then too many forecasters did not look at the 500mb setup to determine if the models were correct. The 12/15/89 and 2/24/89 storms are classic examples, the first event the ridge was positioned too far off the West Coast for a good NYC/LI snow event and the ridge was not amplified enough and too far east for the February one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Its amazing when we look back at setups in the 80s and 90s that the models may have missed how we can now pick out why. It just goes to show you how even back then too many forecasters did not look at the 500mb setup to determine if the models were correct. The 12/15/89 and 2/24/89 storms are classic examples, the first event the ridge was positioned too far off the West Coast for a good NYC/LI snow event and the ridge was not amplified enough and too far east for the February one. always look to the ridge out west, its the biggest key IMHO, because even if we are sans the blocking in the atlantic, the ridge can really save the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Its amazing when we look back at setups in the 80s and 90s that the models may have missed how we can now pick out why. It just goes to show you how even back then too many forecasters did not look at the 500mb setup to determine if the models were correct. The 12/15/89 and 2/24/89 storms are classic examples, the first event the ridge was positioned too far off the West Coast for a good NYC/LI snow event and the ridge was not amplified enough and too far east for the February one. I can just imagine metfan posting the ensembles for this storm, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 u know looking at 2/89 goose, it was actually a kicker that pushed the 500mb low east at the last min, the ridge was actually fine in the preceeding days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Greetings from the icebox of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The models have been so inconsistent that the entire storm itself could be complete fantasy if the GFS is handling the sw us cutoff incorrectly. The huge northern stream shortwave that races down from N Canada is the real player on the 18z GFS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 The models have been so inconsistent that the entire storm itself could be complete fantasy if the GFS is handling the sw us cutoff incorrectly. The huge northern stream shortwave that races down from N Canada is the real player on the 18z GFS, though. gfs is probably over doing one of those features, but its all we got right now. that being said, its not a complete weenie solution yet, which is a good thing this far out, because if it had phased quicker and come up the coast at 18z, we would have no where to go but down hill, lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 How does he go from saying it will be 1985 to 2006 in one week? Hes been saying it will be very cold for PAC NORTHWEST not East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol, really? that should be the least of anyones concerns this far out but it is snow can't go off coolwx, that site is horrible in marginal setups...this sounding shows rain for nyc area...even up north of yonkers has some bl issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 can't go off coolwx, that site is horrible in marginal setups...this sounding shows rain for nyc area...even up north of yonkers has some bl issues that is probably snow, especially with room to evap and its very cold in the upper level. but at that range, i really could care less what the 2m temps on the gfs show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z Nam has the low going south of NYC for the Friday storm. The result is mild and rainy for the area and cold and snowy to the north of the city. There is a 1036 high to the north of us, so maybe it will trend colder for us as the days go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z Nam has the low going south of us for the Friday storm. The result is mild and rainy for the area and cold and snowy to the north of the city. There is a 1036 high to the north of us, so maybe it will trend colder for us as the days go forward. no precip left by the time the cold air is really close enough that is a non starter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z Nam has the low going south of NYC for the Friday storm. The result is mild and rainy for the area and cold and snowy to the north of the city. There is a 1036 high to the north of us, so maybe it will trend colder for us as the days go forward. If by north, you mean very far north (on this run). I don't think there is much hope for anything with that system other than a brief period of sleet or snow in the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If by north, you mean very far north (on this run). I don't think there is much hope for anything with that system other than a brief period of sleet or snow in the higher elevations. Rain / snow line probably a little north of Poughkeepsie at hour 84 on 0z Nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If by north, you mean very far north (on this run). I don't think there is much hope for anything with that system other than a brief period of sleet or snow in the higher elevations. It's a shame that we are going to waste a 1035 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It's a shame that we are going to waste a 1035 high. You probably could characterize it as a legitimate arctic anticyclone as the 0z NAM has an hour 84 temp of 12 F (dewpoint 7 F) up at Caribou... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It probably doesn't matter much, but Wednesday night looks like one of these scenarios where temperatures surge into the mid to possibly upper 50s for a brief time overnight before the cold front moves through later overnight. Thursday also has the potential to end up slightly warmer than currently forecasted, as seems to be the case in some cases behind frontal passages, with the NAM showing mid-upper 50s and the ECM showing mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The euro has had completely different solutions for 5 straight runs for hours 96-156. What is supposedly the euro's deadly range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 speaking of control runs, 00z gfs control run was lovely last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 speaking of control runs, 00z gfs control run was lovely last night To that other post, I didn't mean Jb has anything with models but I was just adding that in separate. But yes he's been flipping more then usual latley him and Henry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 To that other post, I didn't mean Jb has anything with models but I was just adding that in separate. But yes he's been flipping more then usual latley him and Henry I dont take either of those fools seriously, and neither should you. Follow coastalwx and Will and Goose and TornadoJay and you will learn millions times more in a much shorter time. I would say follow the real HM but he lives in another stratosphere with his knowledge, so when he says it will snow, just accept it as the absolute truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I dont take either of those fools seriously, and neither should you. Follow coastalwx and Will and Goose and TornadoJay and you will learn millions times more in a much shorter time. I would say follow the real HM but he lives in another stratosphere with his knowledge, so when he says it will snow, just accept it as the absolute truth. Lol thanks I usually read them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not sure where everyone thinks this cold air is coming from...none of the storms are likely to have snow unless you are well inland. Reminds me of the storm a few weeks ago--the warmth was underdone for that and it's likely underdone here. SE ridge is just too strong and there's not much cold anyway up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Usually with a high pressure in that spot and that strong, it would be colder. What a horrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Folks...come on...winter is done. we hit our coldest temps of the winter yesterday morning, 19 in my neck of the woods, not too shabby. We got snow already, 1.5. inches by me, very impressive. Lets be honest, there is no cold air to work with, and all of these systems will be rain. Which is fine by me, fill up those long island aquifers...i dont mind taking out the garbage in flip flops in december, or not having to warm the car up every morning...all i ask for is a few 60 degrees days every once in a while so i can break out the t-shirt on the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Folks...come on...winter is done. we hit our coldest temps of the winter yesterday morning, 19 in my neck of the woods, not too shabby. We got snow already, 1.5. inches by me, very impressive. Lets be honest, there is no cold air to work with, and all of these systems will be rain. Which is fine by me, fill up those long island aquifers...i dont mind taking out the garbage in flip flops in december, or not having to warm the car up every morning...all i ask for is a few 60 degrees days every once in a while so i can break out the t-shirt on the weekend... NAM has the coast in the 50's on Friday and Saturday. So enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not sure where everyone thinks this cold air is coming from...none of the storms are likely to have snow unless you are well inland. Reminds me of the storm a few weeks ago--the warmth was underdone for that and it's likely underdone here. SE ridge is just too strong and there's not much cold anyway up north. Third storm has sufficient cold, if there is a storm. First and second are rain, really no way around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Folks...come on...winter is done. December 20th? Not according to Trials Sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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