nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12Z ECM Looks warm for city area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 The SV maps have the 2M freezing line just north of the U.S./Canada border when most of the precip happens yeah, the sne boys should take another look, its warm for them too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah, the sne boys should take another look, its warm for them too yep.. it's not looking particularly great at this time.. it's worth keeping an eye out though... if we could thread the needle on a late October event, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 yep.. it's not looking particularly great at this time.. it's worth keeping an eye out though... if we could thread the needle on a late October event, you never know. would not surprise me if the euro loses this for the 25th and brings it in later as a stronger system on the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 looks like the ole' vortex starts impeding on Alaska again and just squashes any major amplification in the Pacific. It's basically a massive long wave-length ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Back to where we started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 would not surprise me if the euro loses this for the 25th and brings it in later as a stronger system on the 27th that'd pretty much be our last window of opportunity.. I've been ranting about this potential ugly pattern coming around New Year's.. the only good news is the blowtorch temps have been tempered, but it's not a good looking set-up around and just after New Year's.. at least, the way it looks now... any major amplification pretty much is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Surface temps on wunderground show the city area with a temp of 35-40 degrees for the storm. SNE cools down enough to give them some wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The movie snow day is on fx, it's about us filmed in Syracuse with 55 degree weather in the winter followed by a miracle snowstorm LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 The movie snow day is on fx, it's about us filmed in Syracuse with 55 degree weather in the winter followed by a miracle snowstorm LOL chevy chase is in that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Surface temps on wunderground show the city area with a temp of 35-40 degrees for the storm. SNE cools down enough to give them some wet snow. and the 0 line goes north of nyc for a time so its raining at some point irish rob and snwyx would probably get 2-4 on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 chevy chase is in that right? Yeah haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I think the storm on 24-25th will wind up somewhere between the Euro and GFS solutions. Which won't be good for most here. I don't think the 27th storm has much of a shot, in this pattern. Too many things have to fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 This is miserable and getting ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Keep in mind, intensity of these sfc lows is an important factor here. Right now what's being depicted is a 1000+mb piece of garbage, but I can easily see more energy going into the Christmas-26th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 and the 0 line goes north of nyc for a time so its raining at some point irish rob and snwyx would probably get 2-4 on that That would be a win this year if we pulled that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 And the Euro is almost always 3-4 degrees too warm with the surface temperatures in these types of situations. I don't know why everyone is whining here. The only basic difference is that the Euro weakened the storm a bit and as a result cut back on the precip, which increased temperatures slightly. Small changes here and you end up back with the previous solution of the Euro. The placement of the low pressure center is off the NJ coast only slightly further than before and it is weaker. If you strengthen that low a little more you will also get the colder temperatures. Surface temps on wunderground show the city area with a temp of 35-40 degrees for the storm. SNE cools down enough to give them some wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Keep in mind, intensity of these sfc lows is an important factor here. Right now what's being depicted is a 1000+mb piece of garbage, but I can easily see more energy going into the Christmas-26th event. euro's solution is borderline absurd how it creates that slp it won't look anything like that in two days, maybe even 2 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 And the Euro is almost always 3-4 degrees too warm with the surface temperatures in these types of situations. I don't know why everyone is whining here. The only basic difference is that the Euro weakened the storm a bit and as a result cut back on the precip, which increased temperatures slightly. Small changes here and you end up back with the previous solution of the Euro. The placement of the low pressure center is off the NJ coast only slightly further than before and it is weaker. If you strengthen that low a little more you will also get the colder temperatures. 1) Euro was actually too cold last storm where snwyx was hoping for 3-6 lolliops to 8. And when it has been warm in the past 1-2 degrees, maybe, not 3-4. 2) There is alot more different that just the storm is weaker. The whole evolution changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 All that matters is that we have a pna ridge with several shortwaves to work with. In this dreadful pattern, we need everything, with regards to timing and placement, to be perfect. Will be very tough, but it is possible. In the end, I think the city itself will have a slop type storm, with perhaps a couple slushy inches at best. The interior will fair well, in the next 7 days. I'll be up in the Catskills this weekend, so bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 With the October 29th storm it was 3-4 degrees too warm in my area and it often is with the Nor'easters. Now, if we don't get a significant Nor'easter then the temps will likely verify as is. 1) Euro was actually too cold last storm where snwyx was hoping for 3-6 lolliops to 8. And when it has been warm in the past 1-2 degrees, maybe, not 3-4. 2) There is alot more different that just the storm is weaker. The whole evolution changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Keep in mind, intensity of these sfc lows is an important factor here. Right now what's being depicted is a 1000+mb piece of garbage, but I can easily see more energy going into the Christmas-26th event. I don't it can be think easily done, without a block to slow things down. Why would all this energy hold back SW? Or if this energy did all phase together, what's to prevent it from coming too far NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 euro's solution is borderline absurd how it creates that slp it won't look anything like that in two days, maybe even 2 runs yea. I was actually thinking the same thing. We're not talking about blockbluster upper level support on that one. The embedded wave looks pretty meager at best. The only thing it has working for it is fairly good baroclinicity as it hits the coast, but this sucker obviously is not ready to close off or slow down by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 FWIW, DT likes the xmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I don't it can be think easily done, without a block to slow things down. Why would all this energy hold back SW? Or if this energy did all phase together, what's to prevent it from coming too far NW? One of the biases of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 FWIW, DT likes the xmas storm. That means rain then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 FWIW, DT likes the xmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 BTW... nice recovery on temps today....... it was pretty brutal out there yesterday, compared to what we've been used to around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just saw the Euro. Not a terrible run...it's really just a little weaker with the system and later to develop as Tom said earlier. It's still got the signal...the H5 trough is still there...and it's still got a decent amount of cold air to work with should the system deepen more rapidly like last nights run. Gotta like where we are compared to 48 hrs ago when we had nothing but torches and rain on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just saw the Euro. Not a terrible run...it's really just a little weaker with the system and later to develop as Tom said earlier. It's still got the signal...the H5 trough is still there...and it's still got a decent amount of cold air to work with should the system deepen more rapidly like last nights run. Gotta like where we are compared to 48 hrs ago when we had nothing but torches and rain on all guidance. Its H5 was much cleaner last night, it is far more disorganized today which is why the system is weaker, it comes together much later since it comes together later, its in its formation at our latitude and thus we have immature h7 anf h85 lows and that's a problem with the marginal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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