Weathergun Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Now I am getting a little confused, there are three systems 23, 25, 27th The 22-23 system just looks like a flat wave, doesn't do much. The 24-25 system is the one the models are keying on the most now. But often, it's the last s/w that comes out, that is bigger storm for us. This setup is different from most others thought, because we don't have any blocking. So all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 The 22-23 system just looks like a flat wave, doesn't do much. The 24-25 system is the one the models are keying on the most now. But often, it's the last s/w that comes out, that is bigger storm for us. This setup is different from most others thought, because we don't have any blocking. So all bets are off. only two systems have sufficient cold air to work with, the 2nd and 3rd ones if we are using the 12z gfs today. The 2nd one the euro blew up last night for the xmas miracle, somehow keeping the HP anchored over NE with no 50/50 low. I doubt it shows that today. The third system needs amplification, which is a dangerous thing to ask for in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 only two systems have sufficient cold air to work with, the 2nd and 3rd ones if we are using the 12z gfs today. The 2nd one the euro blew up last night for the xmas miracle, somehow keeping the HP anchored over NE with no 50/50 low. I doubt it shows that today. The third system needs amplification, which is a dangerous thing to ask for in this pattern that 3rd threat, if you look at h5, you see a decent ridge out west.. (not great, but decent). roughly hr 132-135.. but then in the next few frames, a pacific s.w tries to undercut that ridging, and flattens it out, and not allowing that southern wave to amplify, hence the offshore solution. Not saying 1 way or another, b/c we know how well the pacific is sampled, but it can go either way there. Either continue to flatten the ridge, or help it. Of course, all dependent on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 that 3rd threat, if you look at h5, you see a decent ridge out west.. (not great, but decent). roughly hr 132-135.. but then in the next few frames, a pacific s.w tries to undercut that ridging, and flattens it out, and not allowing that southern wave to amplify, hence the offshore solution. Not saying 1 way or another, b/c we know how well the pacific is sampled, but it can go either way there. Either continue to flatten the ridge, or help it. Of course, all dependent on timing. yup. Just way to much noise right now for the models to sort out with all the energy ejecting from the SW which messes all of them up, not just the euro. Just looking at the individual ensembles you can see how a few of the member are each keying in on the different waves offering no concensus. Fun week coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yup. Just way to much noice right now for the models to sort out with all the energy ejecting from the SW which messes all of them up, not just the euro. Just looking at the individual ensembles you can see how a few of the member are each keying in on the different waves offering no concensus. Fun week coming. No consensus. I think we need to watch the Friday threat first...it's small but could give the north and west burbs some white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 No consensus. I think we need to watch the Friday threat first...it's small but could give the north and west burbs some white stuff. Hudson valley boys should be keepnig a sharp eye posted, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 just emailed NCEP about the GFS site..has anybody done that? Just use ewall. MUCH better maps with more detail and fast loading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 here is a good way to see how that energy is the SW is the player. Check out the 3rd wave setup off the gefs. Some have almost all the energy back in the sw, some have none of it and are amplified, some have a little bit eject and are flat and some have a little bit more and are somewhere between amped and flat and the OP ejects it but doesn't quite get it to bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro is out to 78 hours, no major changes. Maybe a hair stronger with the storm over the southern US at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I rather have nothing at all on Christmas then rain that's just depressing, and if the dgex verifies well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro is out to 78 hours, no major changes. Maybe a hair stronger with the storm over the southern US at that time. Ah nothing like play by play finally that time, we hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 As far as the Christmas storm goes..it is breaking energy off into the SW US at 84 moreso than the 00z run. So I would venture to guess we won't see our MECS solution anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's colder with some light overrunning precipitation at 12z Friday...so instead of 40 F and rain, joshua gets 36 F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's colder with some light overrunning precipitation at 12z Friday...so instead of 40 F and rain, joshua gets 36 F and rain. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 had to run out to get a haircut, but nothing exciting through 108 hrs. I'll leave the rest up in the air. I hope to come back to a 992mb low off the coast on Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's colder with some light overrunning precipitation at 12z Friday...so instead of 40 F and rain, joshua gets 36 F and rain. that was always rain, and the euro hecs is gone, shocking accuweather must send out that euro control garbage to increase its suscriptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 euro def. settting up for a bigger storm post exmas, energy diving down the rockies and more coming out of canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 euro def. settting up for a bigger storm post exmas, energy diving down the rockies and more coming out of canada. That's your 27th storm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 That's your 27th storm right? yup, that the time frame i really started to like last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 euro def. settting up for a bigger storm post exmas, energy diving down the rockies and more coming out of canada. Seems as if the Xmas threat will be crap and it will be the one after Xmas. Most guidance starting to focus on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Seems as if the Xmas threat will be crap and it will be the one after Xmas. Most guidance starting to focus on that one. well there is a lot of different pieces here, not sure what the euro is really keying in on yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 LOL, what is that john, some kind of miller b hybrid? euro pops a coastal afternoon of xmas, but its warm verbatim weird solution euro having issues, like all the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 still more energy still to come through on the euro run, coastal from the 25th bombing into a pseudo 50/50 as the final piece ejects pretty flat though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 LOL, what is that john, some kind of miller b hybrid? euro pops a coastal afternoon of xmas, but its warm verbatim weird solution euro having issues, like all the models This doesnt look warm. How much precip falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 dont know where to start except the fact that this run is a complete me, this run gives us very little help and info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 This doesnt look warm. How much precip falls? The SV maps have the 2M freezing line just north of the U.S./Canada border when most of the precip happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12Z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 the surface temps on the euro are pretty warm, 32 degree line is in upstate ny and the o line is north of NYC at one point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 boy.... looks like a pretty benign and boring pattern after that.. Euro says take a nap for a couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The SV maps have the 2M freezing line just north of the U.S./Canada border when most of the precip happens flat flow, strong SE ridge. this storm never had a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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