TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah, the main player is going to be the after xmas storm we really want the 24th into the 25th event to be a turd and then blow up over the 50/50 location to help out the pattern on the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 gfs misses the bigger system but not by much. That is the one to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 REgardless of what the totals look like.. The LAYOUT looks like March 1993.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Until/unless the Euro changes, the Euro says the Christmas Eve storm is the one to watch. gfs misses the bigger system but not by much. That is the one to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 gfs misses the bigger system but not by much. That is the one to keep an eye on. Fortunately, the GFS tends to be a little SE/E at this timeframe, doesn't it? It will be interesting to see if the Euro still disagrees with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 gfs misses the bigger system but not by much. That is the one to keep an eye on. GFS is a horrible model..and to top it off the NCEP site is a disaster..typical government garbage..the only model to follow is Euro..why did coudn't they leave the original site alone?..I have emailed them twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Until the Euro changes, the Euro says the Christmas Eve storm is the one to watch. LOL, the euro did change from 12z to 00Z yesterday. At 12z it had the bigger event like the gfs does except it held onto the energy too long out west then 00z it accelerated the whole thing. If you split the difference, it would look like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS is a horrible model..and to top it off the NCEP site is a disaster..typical government garbage..the only model to follow is Euro..why did coudn't they leave the original site alone?..I have emailed them twice you just can't say something is a horrible model, because they all have their moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Fortunately, the GFS tends to be a little SE/E at this timeframe, doesn't it? It will be interesting to see if the Euro still disagrees with the GFS. it only need a little more amplification out west to be something much bigger. All this is fantasy, but I just don't see the system on the 24th being the main show right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 These split flow patterns are really tough for the models. With such a strong +AO pattern, warmer usually ends up winning out. Even the Euro trended warmer as we got closer to the deep low on the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 lol, i bet if the GFS was showing a snowstorm, it would "be the best model out there cuz of xyz reasons..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The bottom line is that the GFS is the 4th best model. Let's see what the ECMWF #1, the UKMET #2, and the JMA #3 say. It is just that the GFS comes out first. I understand that this may turn out like the GFS shows, but I would not jump ship until seeing the other three better models first by any means. lol, i bet if the GFS was showing a snowstorm, it would "be the best model out there cuz of xyz reasons..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 lol, i bet if the GFS was showing a snowstorm, it would "be the best model out there cuz of xyz reasons..." rankings aside, I would not be putting any money down on the xmas vort with no ridge out west and nothing anchoring the HP in place over the northeast. That is why the second setup works better, if the amplification is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The ensembles should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 rankings aside, I would not be putting any money down on the xmas vort with no ridge out west and nothing anchoring the HP in place over the northeast. That is why the second setup works better, if the amplification is there. I'm sure that second storm on the 26th is going out to sea with that se ridge?..lol..typical bias in play here..I'd be more concerned of an inland track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 UKMET still does NOT have the storm. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=144&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 But Joe B says snow and a white christmas...and that's enough for me....I'm still shoveling out from all the snow he predicted for yesterday rankings aside, I would not be putting any money down on the xmas vort with no ridge out west and nothing anchoring the HP in place over the northeast. That is why the second setup works better, if the amplification is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm sure that second storm on the 26th is going out to sea with that se ridge?..lol..typical bias in play here..I'd be more concerned of an inland track the se ridge isn't there in that setup because of the amplificaiton out west, the se ridge is a product of the -PNA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Now I am getting a little confused, there are three systems 23, 25, 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Now I am getting a little confused, there are three systems 23, 25, 27th But which is/are reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The bottom line is that the GFS is the 4th best model. Let's see what the ECMWF #1, the UKMET #2, and the JMA #3 say. It is just that the GFS comes out first. I understand that this may turn out like the GFS shows, but I would not jump ship until seeing the other three better models first by any means. you can throw the rankings out the door. Thats based on a global level. We're more concerned about NORTH AMERICA. Ideally, you have the euro, and then everything else. I still would trust the GFS over the JMA anyday. All have there uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 But which is/are reality? they all may exist, the question is which one produces, if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 just emailed NCEP about the GFS site..has anybody done that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 you can throw the rankings out the door. Thats based on a global level. We're more concerned about NORTH AMERICA. Ideally, you have the euro, and then everything else. I still would trust the GFS over the JMA anyday. All have there uses. good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 But which is/are reality? Let's hope the one on the 27th pans out. That's the one we should be rooting for to give everyone the best shot at seeing accumulating snow. (although technically we need the one on the 25th, even though it's rain, to set up the one on the 27th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 just emailed NCEP about the GFS site..has anybody done that? I haven't sent any emails, but I do find the new MAG site to be generally obsolete. There is no reason to use it...it is incredibly difficult to navigate and highly frustrating. I just use E-wall. By the way, you can now click model hours for the 12z GFS on Ewall and see the trends from the past several days of runs. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Well, just remember that the GFS model is the 4th best model. Let's wait and see what 1, 2, and 3 have to say. It is the fourth best model? Where do you see that? I don't think it is wise to just rank models and weight your reliance on them according to their rankings. Certain models are better at certain patterns, etc., and model rankings change with tweaks and different patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 It is the fourth best model? Where do you see that? I don't think it is wise to just rank models and weight your reliance on them according to their rankings. Certain models are better at certain patterns, etc., and model rankings change with tweaks and different patterns. it had dropped to fourth at 5 days for NA 500 mb verification so the weenies went nuts as some of us have been saying, its silly to just say ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 ggem is east, nice ridge coming into the west though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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