MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro ensemble mean supports the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 DGEX has 2 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GEFS has a little wave at 108 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The Christmas event on the 00Z GFS has the most potential IMO if and only if that stubborn little inland low does not ruin it...the high could be in position for overrunning and its similar to the setup to the late December 1984 and 1990 events which have been discussed here before the last few weeks as 2 snow events which occurred in otherwise torching Decembers. That inland low though could very well be a problem. The first event it will be too warm and I don't like the big system late, its way too timing sensitive again in that its basically a 33-33-34 split right now as to inland, perfect timing, or OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wunderground has my location at 21.3F but my backyard Williams and Sonoma thermometer (I know...it's sad, isn't it?) is reading somewhere between 18 and 19F. What a beautiful morning it is... now all we need is some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The Christmas event on the 00Z GFS has the most potential IMO if and only if that stubborn little inland low does not ruin it...the high could be in position for overrunning and its similar to the setup to the late December 1984 and 1990 events which have been discussed here before the last few weeks as 2 snow events which occurred in otherwise torching Decembers. That inland low though could very well be a problem. The first event it will be too warm and I don't like the big system late, its way too timing sensitive again in that its basically a 33-33-34 split right now as to inland, perfect timing, or OTS. I think with Christmas system, the GFS is likely overphased with s/w. While the Euro might be shearing out the s/w, too much. These solutions with handling of s/w and high strength/placement have changed alot since yesterday, So I wouldn't trust them too much, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The control run of the Euro which has been highlighting the trends for this potential Christmas storm about one run prior to each of the operational runs so far, continues to be EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE with the Christmas eve into Christmas morning storm, with a 998 mb low just off the NJ shore at 6z on Christmas morning and a 992mb low near Cape Cod at 12z on Sunday morning with about 1.25-1.5 inches of precipitation having fallen throughout our area, with the 850 line showing that most, if not all of this is snow from basically Rt. 78 north including NYC and western Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The control run of the Euro which has been highlighting the trends for this potential Christmas storm about one run prior to each of the operational runs so far, continues to be EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE with the Christmas eve into Christmas morning storm, with a 998 mb low just off the NJ shore at 6z on Christmas morning and a 992mb low near Cape Cod at 12z on Sunday morning with about 1.25-1.5 inches of precipitation having fallen throughout our area, with the 850 line showing that most, if not all of this is snow from basically Rt. 78 north including NYC and western Long Island. Just curious, where do you obtain the Euro control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wunderground has my location at 21.3F but my backyard Williams and Sonoma thermometer (I know...it's sad, isn't it?) is reading somewhere between 18 and 19F. What a beautiful morning it is... now all we need is some snow. Youre using a meat thermometer? Whats wrong with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 accuweather.com through the Pro subscription. They also have the JMA through 8 days, which is very useful as well, as the JMA is currently the third best model behind the Euro and UKMET, but ahead of the GFS. Just curious, where do you obtain the Euro control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Youre using a meat thermometer? Whats wrong with you? What can I say, my wife is very ve(a)in when it comes to temperature readings. http://www.hark.com/clips/gwxgvcwfqx-short-drum-roll-with-cymbal-crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Biggest problem right now is that the models are seeing too many and in the euro's case probably too few waves coming off that cutoff in the southwest. The more waves, ala gfs, the worse the result. Euro basically takes one wave, the xmas wave, and kicks it just inside the right upright for the game winner Extreme outlier IMHO. I liked the look of this event when there was one main wave, the third wave, and the second wave blew up over the ocean and was a temp. 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The Euro is by far the best model in this range, and has been consistent. It my humble opinion, it is the most likely one to be correct. Biggest problem right now is that the models are seeing too many and in the euro's case probably too few waves coming off that cutoff in the southwest. The more waves, ala gfs, the worse the result. Euro basically takes one wave, the xmas wave, and kicks it just inside the right upright for the game winner Extreme outlier IMHO. I liked the look of this event when there was one main wave, the third wave, and the second wave blew up over the ocean and was a temp. 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 The Euro is by far the best model in this range, and has been consistent. It my humble opinion, it is the most likely one to be correct. well, i agree, its generally the best in this range, but its a big outlier to everything, even its own ensembles which still have that as a weak wave like it did at 12z. A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 looks to me like the 12z euro was too slow yesterday ejecting the energy from the sw and then the 00z was too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Low of 25°F here. I still can't believe Westhampton dropped to 6°F so effortlessly, it hasn't been that low here since 2005 (although 2009 & 2011 came close), on the same island at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The DGEX looks very similar to the Euro for this storm. EE rule. The GFS is really only about a day behind catching up to it, as usual, it will get it today or tomorrow. well, i agree, its generally the best in this range, but its a big outlier to everything, even its own ensembles which still have that as a weak wave like it did at 12z. A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 well, i agree, its generally the best in this range, but its a big outlier to everything, even its own ensembles which still have that as a weak wave like it did at 12z. A I just want some flakes on Christmas, Im not even looking for a miracle storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 The DGEX looks very similar to the Euro for this storm. EE rule. The GFS is really only about a day behind catching up to it, as usual, it will get it today or tomorrow. The real EE rule was when the old eta and the euro were showing the same solution inside of 60 hours. Its a DT rule and the only way it works now is to take the old eta from ewall which is only run off hour. Also, since that rule, the euro has gone through substantial improvements and the eta hasn't been upgraded since the early 2000's. As to the GFS catching up, the 6z gfs solution is more likely to be the right one IMHO for xmas over the fantasy euro snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I know, I was somewhat kidding, but it is interesting that the DGEX looks very similar. Also, I know I sound like a broken record here, but I have found the control run of the Euro to be very useful in determining if the operational run is off on its own. In this case the control run continues to be even more impressive with this storm. The real EE rule was when the old eta and the euro were showing the same solution inside of 60 hours. Its a DT rule and the only way it works now is to take the old eta from ewall which is only run off hour. Also, since that rule, the euro has gone through substantial improvements and the eta hasn't been upgraded since the early 2000's. As to the GFS catching up, the 6z gfs solution is more likely to be the right one IMHO for xmas over the fantasy euro snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Everything is on the shoulders of the ridge outwest. Watch the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Low of 25°F here. I still can't believe Westhampton dropped to 6°F so effortlessly, it hasn't been that low here since 2005 (although 2009 & 2011 came close), on the same island at that. No wind and the dry dewpoint made it pretty easy to drop like a rock out there. The Pine Barrens out there are quite desolate and very easily radiate heat back into space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 15.5 was the low in Muttontown this morning, nowhere near as cold as FOK, but cold regardless for Long Island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Maybe a little something on Friday. Right now it shows some rain but maybe we could get some festive pre-Xmas snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 yup, gfs looks nothing like it did yesterday, no ridge out west, instead you get a classic nina trough and a miserable pattern for the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Well, just remember that the GFS model is the 4th best model. Let's wait and see what 1, 2, and 3 have to say. yup, gfs looks nothing like it did yesterday, no ridge out west, instead you get a classic nina trough and a miserable pattern for the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 the flip side is if we take it on the chin for xmas, it actually sets things up better for the storm i was keying in after the holiday, and it looks like we do get the ridge to build in out west for that let's see where that one goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z GFS still focusing on the Great Lakes low being strong and robbing the coast of any cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 There's probably a 95% chance that whatever fantasy storms that appear for X-mas, or whenever until the pattern changes up north and blocking appears, is bogus. Storms that amplify in such a pattern will almost certainly be too warm for snow, and weaker systems will just glide out to sea as a weak wave or nothing. We need something to lock the trough in over the East and force lows to take a favorable track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 132 is a torch for entire area... Like trials said, SE ridge pumping, and you get rain on xmas.. Anyone else notice how much the NCEP site is SSSSSSLLLLLLOOOOWWW? always.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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