earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 In this regard, the latest control run of the Euro is showing the Christmas Day storm to potentially be much more significant than the operational run showed this afternoon. It shows the 850's below freezing from about Rt. 78 North, including NYC and Long Island, with about .75 inches of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Sold, where do I go to pay? Just donate to the board and all will be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 In this regard, the latest control run of the Euro is showing the Christmas Day storm to potentially be much more significant than the operational run showed this afternoon. It shows the 850's below freezing from about Rt. 78 North, including NYC and Long Island, with about .75 inches of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just donate to the board and all will be well. Money in da bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The Euro has the southern stream much more involved at 150 hours. The GFS is farther north with the ejecting piece of the Southwest US cutoff while the Euro is also stronger and has better positioned and timed PVA..which allows the main surface low to re-develop off the coast. The GFS being farther north and weaker keeps a dual-surface low structure with a surface low near the Great Lakes and a weak secondary off the east coast. You could see at 144 hours that the Euro was going to show a nice solution. The cold air is marginal, but this is pretty much the best case scenario on this specific run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z Christmas day, dudes. I'll toss one up for everybody in this thread. Man, I don't like that track.....hugger. No blocking, so what is to stop it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The Euro has a cutoff low over Tampa at 228 hours. I think I've seen enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 There would be a decent ageostrophic flow with that high placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Man, I don't like that track.....hugger. No blocking, so what is to stop it Nothing, really. The fact that it is a relatively progressive feature should save it from becoming an all out 55 F rain storm for everybody, but I think ultimately it will end up on the warm side. The Euro basically has a perfectly timed ejection of the energy in the SW US, a well positioned baroclinic zone behind the storm a few days earlier, and a perfectly positioned vort which develops the surface low right on the warm waters near the benchmark or inside of it and gets enough dynamics going to keep things just marginally cold enough away from the coast. I won't hang my hat on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 what about the post xmas storm being shown by the GFS, does the euro have it as well?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If anyone wants a good laugh go check out the weenie snow maps @ Wunderground.. From the City on NW get buried starting @ hr150.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 what about the post xmas storm being shown by the GFS, does the euro have it as well?? Nope...the northern stream is disjointed. The first storms track and strength def. has something to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Nothing, really. The fact that it is a relatively progressive feature should save it from becoming an all out 55 F rain storm for everybody, but I think ultimately it will end up on the warm side. The Euro basically has a perfectly timed ejection of the energy in the SW US, a well positioned baroclinic zone behind the storm a few days earlier, and a perfectly positioned vort which develops the surface low right on the warm waters near the benchmark or inside of it and gets enough dynamics going to keep things just marginally cold enough away from the coast. I won't hang my hat on it. If this ends up a xmas rainer, then I'll end up donating more than the board bargained for......like organs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 this storm would fit right in with the last 2 years honestly. We've seen it all Also the storm gets up here timed perfectly with a high pressure moving over top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If anyone wants a good laugh go check out the weenie snow maps @ Wunderground.. From the City on NW get buried starting @ hr150.. We haven't had many weenie runs so far this winter, so why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If this ends up a xmas rainer, then I'll end up donating more than the board bargained for......like organs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Land breeze detected via KOKX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The worst thing to witness on Xmas eve and Xmas would be a rainstorm with temps in the 40s/50s so either give me some snow or give me nothing. Unfortunately I have a feeling that the Xmas storm will feature a moderately strong low cutting through the Ohio Valley with a late transfer to the coast, we get temps soaring into the low to mid 50s and get moderate to pockets of heavy rain, central/ northern new England manages to do fairly well and get their Xmas snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 this storm would fit right in with the last 2 years honestly. We've seen it all Also the storm gets up here timed perfectly with a high pressure moving over top of it. Only one problem. The last two years, we've seen a very negative NAO and record breaking -AO giving us an enormous Greenland block which locked in the cold air and eliminated the storm inland cutter potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 This is the first time I have seen a map look anything remotely close to this over the high latitudes in well over a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 This is the first time I have seen a map look anything remotely close to this over the high latitudes in well over a month. And the PV gets split, too! Which is what we want. But isn't it great that it splits near AK and in the eastern NAO regions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 HM from this board kind of mentioned about this possibility with this storm system for this to occur.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 HM from this board kind of mentioned about this possibility with this storm system for this to occur.... the guy is a genius, i wish he'd post more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 That is an absolutely perfect run for me....blows up just in time to punish me....takes a perfect track to comma me to death.....times it just right so that it's xmas eve into day. Back to our regularly scheduled dead ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm back in the city guys, ready to track once more! Whether it be christmas or post-christmas potential, I'll be here with my Noaa.gov radar links. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 That is an absolutely perfect run for me....blows up just in time to punish me....takes a perfect track to comma me to death.....times it just right so that it's xmas eve into day. Back to our regularly scheduled dead ratter. It's perfect. I'd be excited if the pattern surrounding wasn't so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm back in the city guys, ready to track once more! Whether it be christmas or post-christmas potential, I'll be here with my Noaa.gov radar links. haha You are better off in New Paltz lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 That is an absolutely perfect run for me....blows up just in time to punish me....takes a perfect track to comma me to death.....times it just right so that it's xmas eve into day. Back to our regularly scheduled dead ratter. It's a sweet run for mostly everybody away from the coast. Can't complain..it has been a while since we've even had a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Westhampton Beach is now at a frigid 6*F under clear skies and a calm wind, when they were in the 50s just three days ago. The cold has been over-performing again tonight. I heard a lot of people in NYC complaining about the cold yesterday. I can't believe some of the members in this forum claiming that December is a "disaster and a blowtorch." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS FARMINGDALE CLEAR 20 12 71 CALM 30.30S ISLIP PTCLDY 18 10 71 CALM 30.28S SHIRLEY CLEAR 17 10 74 CALM 30.30S WESTHAMPTON CLEAR 7 2 80 CALM 30.31S MONTAUK POINT N/A 19 10 68 CALM 30.29R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.