earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The real storm is the one right behind it anyway...here comes the northern stream energy into the trough at 156. Not a bad setup synoptically around it---but the lack of blocking, again, leads me to believe we are playing with fire with any phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 why is the new MAG page so horrible? takes forever to load anything... ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Day 5 storm is also a rain maker. Surface is in the 40's for the coast. That one's a little cooler just inland.. it has a better chance than the first storm at least and maybe the area can see some snow on Christmas Eve or Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Pretty cool and clear view of the urban heat island tonight. Already down to 19F here in New Brunswick and 17F in Somerville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Hr 168 there is mass moisture building in and around Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 250mb jet is gorgeous at 165..but it looks a bit too far west for my liking. The baroclinic zone is desparately trying to push east, but it's not making much progress. The H5 trough is also pretty disorganized. The ridge over the west coast is collapsing east rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Hour 180 has snow into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 250mb jet is gorgeous at 165..but it looks a bit too far west for my liking. The baroclinic zone is desparately trying to push east, but it's not making much progress. The H5 trough is also pretty disorganized. The ridge over the west coast is collapsing east rapidly. Perhaps a "rolling" eastward ridge can "cancel out" an initially too far west jet. Plus the baroclinic zone will certainly be shifted eastward because of the prior wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 And there it is, snow at hour 180-186. At least we know we can still pull a total BS run from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Hour 180 has snow into NYC. Looks good, but it would have to be well timed and the right strength if no blocking. If we could get a little temp. blocking like the Oct. storm, chances of snow will increase. At any rate, that period probably has the best chance of any in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS actually has 0.3-0.4" of frozen QPF from the first system at 150 hrs over the suburbs (storm vista maps) and similar amounts for the second one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Too bad truncation ruined this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yup, we get some snow this run. The picture painted at 162 is actually pretty good. Moisture building over TX with the gradient setting up due to the trough dip. Nice ridge out west, and enough of a convoluted setup in SE canada and cold air to allow us to get snow. however, it can phase and allow the trough to go negative earlier and give us rain. The trough actually stays positive this run so who knows where we will be 7 days from now, lol something to track atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 at least we are finding ourselves in a slightly better situation...there are threats and its colder. granted, the pattern is far from ideal but we cant always wait for ideal patterns delivering KUs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 is that really a snow bomb for Austin and even Houston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Holy crap. (Professional analysis) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just finished studying for exam and first thing I am noticing is looking at the models, they pushed the storm back a day? 25th-26th now? Perhaps its me I do not know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 What if the Xmas shortwave ended up a lot stronger as it exited the coast, would it mean a post Xmas storm would be more likely, meaning not a rain maker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 A big problem, well maybe not 'big', will be that the SST's offshore are still about 50oF, if the upper air thermal set-up is marginal, then there would certainly be p-type issues for the littoral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Basically there will be three storm threats that could give us rain/snow. The first will be before even xmas eve although that one clearly looks to be all rain, temps cool off at the end in the NW burbs and higher elevations for a little bit of snow. The xmas eve/day shortwave could be more of an event. The presence of very strong high pressure in New England may be enough to keep us cold enough to see some snowfall, especially just inland and N and W of the city. The lack of blocking issue really shows up with the second storm, as even some blocking would not allow the shortwave to cut inland and kick that strong of a high out. The third has the most potential, it will be packed with gulf moisture and the ridging out west looks decent. It's cold enough for now, but without blocking, it could easily become a rainstorm for us if it amplifies too much or the ridge is misplaced. Timing is everything when you don't have a safety net (blocking, -NAO) and your more likely to lose than win, but at least the potential is there this week and that's the best we could hope for in a still unfavorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Lol, the Canadian gets the Polar Jet involved and phases the storm over Eastern Canada with the Polar Vortex. -30 C 850 temps touching N Maine at 216hrs. And it's rain for us, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Lol, the Canadian gets the Polar Jet involved and phases the storm over Eastern Canada with the Polar Vortex. -30 C 850 temps touching N Maine at 216hrs. And it's rain for us, by the way. One hell of a temp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro has what it looks like a snowstorm for the area on xmas day , lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Borderline snowstorm on the Euro at 150 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wow. Where did this come from. All snow at 156, and moderate at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z Christmas day, dudes. I'll toss one up for everybody in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Man really close call...temps marginal but potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Man really close call...temps marginal but potential Def. marginal at best. Models are struggling with the shortwaves in this pattern too. We are seeing fairly dramatic changes from run to run. The shortwaves are embedded in a very active flow...with the PV over Central Canada and a cutoff low over the SW US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z Christmas day, dudes. I'll toss one up for everybody in this thread. What weenie dreams are made of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12z Christmas day, dudes. I'll toss one up for everybody in this thread. Sold, where do I go to pay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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