Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Guys, interesting stuff appearing on the 12z Control run of the Euro. I have found the control run to be a VERY useful tool in seeing trends with the Euro operational run. Sometimes the operational run works better and sometimes the control run does, and it is not always easy to tell which is going to win out, but you would be surprised how often it truly does go either way. Lately, the control run has done a better job of showing the future trends of the operational run, in essence, the control run often is an indicator of what the next run of the operational run will show. In this regard, the latest control run of the Euro is showing the Christmas Day storm to potentially be much more significant than the operational run showed this afternoon. It shows the 850's below freezing from about Rt. 78 North, including NYC and Long Island, with about .75 inches of precip. Also, unfortunately it shows the after Christmas storm on the 28th being so wound up that it is an inland runner. By the way, it also shows, for the 4th run in a row, a snowstorm on New Year's Day, with a storm off the NJ coast. The good news is that the JMA is also a good model in the day 8 time frame and it shows a much colder and VERY juicy solution with the storm headed up from the southeast with 850's over us of about -3 and the 850 line running SW from about Atlantic City to DC and it may very well keep us to the NW of the 850 freezing line, trying to extrapolate this out. It has a broad area of 1.0-2.5 inches of precipitation headed our way. Fingers crossed. The JMA is the second best model for verification scores at 8 days after the ECMWF and ahead of the GFS referenced here http://www.emc.ncep....b/index12z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Guys, interesting stuff appearing on the 12z Control run of the Euro. I have found the control run to be a VERY useful tool in seeing trends with the Euro operational run. Sometimes the operational run works better and sometimes the control run does, and it is not always easy to tell which is going to win out, but you would be surprised how often it truly does go either way. Lately, the control run has done a better job of showing the future trends of the operational run, in essence, the control run often is an indicator of what the next run of the operational run will show. In this regard, the latest control run of the Euro is showing the Christmas Day storm to potentially be much more significant than the operational run showed this afternoon. It shows the 850's below freezing from about Rt. 78 North, including NYC and Long Island, with about .75 inches of precip. Also, unfortunately it shows the after Christmas storm on the 28th being so wound up that it is an inland runner. By the way, it also shows, for the 4th run in a row, a snowstorm on New Year's Day, with a storm off the NJ coast. The good news is that the JMA is also a good model in the day 8 time frame and it shows a much colder and VERY juicy solution with the storm headed up from the southeast with 850's over us of about -3 and the 850 line running SW from about Atlantic City to DC and it may very well keep us to the NW of the 850 freezing line, trying to extrapolate this out. It has a broad area of 1.0-2.5 inches of precipitation headed our way. Fingers crossed. The JMA is the second best mode for verification scores at 8 days after the ECMWF and ahead of the GFS referenced here http://www.emc.ncep....b/index12z.html By Control, do you mean ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 No, not exactly. It is available on Accuweather and it is not the ensemble mean exactly. They also have a control run of the GFS and it is not exactly a mean. They don't say what it is exactly, just that it is not mean. It is run out to 360 hrs and it has been excellent at showing trends of the operational run prior to the next run. It does not always work, but often it does, and it has been very good the last few days in this particular pattern of showing almost exactly what the next operational run would show. Again, it does NOT always work, but sometimes it does and it has been pretty darn good the past few days. By Control, do you mean ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 No, not exactly. It is available on Accuweather and it is not the ensemble mean exactly. They also have a control run of the GFS and it is not exactly a mean. They don't say what it is exactly, just that it is not mean. It is run out to 360 hrs and it has been excellent at showing trends of the operational run prior to the next run. It does not always work, but often it does, and it has been very good the last few days in this particular pattern of showing almost exactly what the next operational run would show. Again, it does NOT always work, but sometimes it does and it has been pretty darn good the past few days. For some reason, I believe this is just the operational run. Thats what the "control" is when the operational model us put into an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The control run of the Euro also performed quite well for the October 29th storm, keeping the storm over us even when two runs of the operational run moved the storm out to sea. No, not exactly. It is available on Accuweather and it is not the ensemble mean exactly. They also have a control run of the GFS and it is not exactly a mean. They don't say what it is exactly, just that it is not mean. It is run out to 360 hrs and it has been excellent at showing trends of the operational run prior to the next run. It does not always work, but often it does, and it has been very good the last few days in this particular pattern of showing almost exactly what the next operational run would show. Again, it does NOT always work, but sometimes it does and it has been pretty darn good the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I really don't know. I can only tell you that it always looks similar to the operational run that we are all familiar with, but that it definitely has times that it looks quite different from the operational run we are all familiar with. I have no idea how that all works. They call it the "ensemble prediction control EPS Control" rks. ECMWFEnsemble Prediction System (EPS) Contro For some reason, I believe this is just the operational run. Thats what the "control" is when the operational model us put into an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Control run? You keep on talking about this while no one else has mentioned it once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Here is how they describe it, "Control run of the 51 member ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. This is not an ensemble mean." Now what does that mean exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I know. It is something new that Accuweather Professional offers now. It has been an excellent tool to add to the arsenal. Sometimes it works great, and sometimes it does not. Just another tool. Control run? You keep on talking about this while no one else has mentioned it once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Here is how they describe it, "Control run of the 51 member ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. This is not an ensemble mean." Now what does that mean exactly? I havent seen it so I cant say for sure but that tells me its just the operational ECMWF. It could very well be a lower resolution version so thats why It looks different sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 sounds like an experimental model like the CRAS or the FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 03Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yea i was just looking at that...its amazing how well they radiate out there, the closest places that cold north of the city are in extreme NW CT...just a little pocket out there that drops like a rock, what is it, the sandy soil? FOK dropped to -15 F and -16 F as recently as on two mornings in January 2009...the soil plays a role...and there is pretty good placement of the thermometer to maximize taking advantage of cold air drainage.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 FOX5 hinting at possible white christmas. Weenie suicide imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 That sounds about right to me. I havent seen it so I cant say for sure but that tells me its just the operational ECMWF. It could very well be a lower resolution version so thats why It looks different sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 From what I understand it is the first ensemble member, or the control run of the ensemble mean for the ECMWF Ensemble domain. I hadnt seen anything like this until recently, but I suppose it could be worth something. It's basically the equivalent of an ensemble member, like p0001 when you look at the GEFS individuals. I'm not sure about the resolution differences/etc, but I certainly wouldn't put much stock into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 John, This is exactly how they describe it: "Control run of the 51 member ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. This is not an ensemble mean." I agree with you, it is most likely like the P001 of the GFS. What is interesting is that it definitely leads the way sometimes, in advance of the next run of the operational model. I guess it is run at a lower resolution or something. That would describe its similarities to the operational run, however, it is often quite different, and sometimes leads the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 bought myself a nice xmas gift, vantage vue weather station with weatherlink ip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Congrats! bought myself a nice xmas gift, vantage vue weather station with weatherlink ip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I was in Harrisburg yesterday. I saw snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wow - 9F at KFOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Here is how they describe it, "Control run of the 51 member ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. This is not an ensemble mean." Now what does that mean exactly? The control run of the ECMWF ensemble forecast system providing worldwide forecasts twice per day out to 15 day This is what it actually says under the learn more...It is definitely NOT the same as the operational run because the storm at 240 hours is most definitely different on the ensemble control run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Currently 14* IMBY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 We are hanging in the low 30s here in the city. Feels like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Storm on gfs for hours 90-102 has 45-50 degree temps for the coast: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfstmaxint102.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 14F imby.... jealous of what the TX/OK panhandle will look like tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 yea i was just looking at that...its amazing how well they radiate out there, the closest places that cold north of the city are in extreme NW CT...just a little pocket out there that drops like a rock, what is it, the sandy soil? The blocking is a little better out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Lol the GFS is a hot mess at 150 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Amazing that with a nice high pressure perfectly situated over New England and a shortwave traversing east from the Central US...the lack of blocking allows a primary low to shoot into the Great Lakes and the entire synoptic setup takes a sh** on itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Day 5 storm is also a rain maker. Surface is in the 40's for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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