TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Also, will be difficult to drive that storm inland as modeled right now with the pv in eastern canada, there is simply no where for it to go again, its all fantasy land, just food for thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Interesting video by Steve D http://www.nynjpawea...cember-18-2011/ pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Also, will be difficult to drive that storm inland as modeled right now with the pv in eastern canada, there is simply no where for it to go again, its all fantasy land, just food for thought Yeah, assuming the GFS knows what its doing, that doesnt look like its going to cut. However, the cut off lows in the SW CONUS have been giving the models nightmares, so we really have no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The current temperature IMBY in Somerset County is down to 22 Degrees. It actually feels like winter outside, for one of the first times since meteorological winter began. The GEFS have a REALLY strong storm signal for the storm after Christmas. A 1004 mb Low Pressure 192 hours out means that most of the individual ENS are in fairly good agreement with a storm during that timeframe, especially considering the fact that it is 192 hours out, and there should be more disagreement with the ENS as they go out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Yeah, assuming the GFS knows what its doing, that doesnt look like its going to cut. However, the cut off lows in the SW CONUS have been giving the models nightmares, so we really have no idea its all fantasy, but having it so near xmas is cool can we save December? we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Interesting video by Steve D http://www.nynjpawea...cember-18-2011/ Good stuff from Steve. No doubt hes not model hugging. Sounds extremely confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Interesting video by Steve D http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2011/12/18/long-range-video-discussion-for-december-18-2011/ Thanks Ant, he is tough to listen too but makes it easy to understand for those that do not get too involved with how things actually work. I do not agree with everything he says but I do agree with his overall theme, think we have a 5 day window from the 23rd-28th. Might be some tough times (torch) in early Jan but I do think things will settle into a more winter like pattern as we head into mid Jan, although I do not think the NAO goes negative this winter for any length of time, it still will snow but the major blocking we enjoyed the last couple winters will not reoccur at least in MHO. If I had to guess I would guesscast..... 31" of snow for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Already 2º below my forecasted low for the night, and its 730. Am I missing something here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Already 2º below my forecasted low for the night, and its 730. Am I missing something here? Guidance has been busting too high consistently this december. Especially the 2nd-3rd nights of a cold shot. Forecasted low was 23 here, its 20 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 yeah, temps are gonna keep going down with clear skies, light winds and low dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 19 degrees and dropping like a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Very nice.....fire is blasting this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Westhampton down to 13 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The ridge out west is a bit too flat for my liking for the post-Christmas threat, on the GFS, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Down to 17 in Muttontown at my parent's house & dropping. Coldest so far this fall/winter to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 The ridge out west is a bit too flat for my liking for the post-Christmas threat, on the GFS, anyway. I actually dont think its that bad, its just that the southern vort doesnt phase so it goes OTS As John says, you phase and you are playing with fire, but if you catch the phase early enough, you have an opportunity if its delayed in any way and then phases, no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Down to 16* up here.. Hoping to break last nights low of 14*.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I actually dont think its that bad, its just that the southern vort doesnt phase so it goes OTS As John says, you phase and you are playing with fire, but if you catch the phase early enough, you have an opportunity if its delayed in any way and then phases, no good. Part of why it doesn't phase is because that ridge is so flat. The flatter ridge means the pattern is still a bit progressive with strong westerlies. Instead of the potent Canadian shortwave having more of a meridional component which would favor a phase, it has a fast, zonal component which lets it fly eastward quickly and misses the southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Part of why it doesn't phase is because that ridge is so flat. The flatter ridge means the pattern is still a bit progressive with strong westerlies. Instead of the potent Canadian shortwave having more of a meridional component which would favor a phase, it has a fast, zonal component which lets it fly eastward quickly and misses the southern vort. i mean, look at the image above, that is not a flat ridge. It's more of a timing issue in the split flow, IMHO, not how much its digging although I see what you are talking about. As earthlight has noted several times, these vorts have had very little trouble digging even in the fast nina flow, so I bet we see that dig phase more in future runs, and then instead of ots we can start worrying how far west it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 still get good dry air advection into the area, dews in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18 here, forecasted low of 22. Officially the coldest temp of this winter, we hit 19 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Pretty amazing that forecast was for 37 today and it only hit 29 IMBY...thats a big bust low...already 22 here in western nassau...freezing out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 very cold airmass...its 1 degree in Berlin, NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 we rose 1 degree to 24... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 we rose 1 degree to 24... thats what happens when there is no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 thats what happens when there is no blocking Definitely calling BS on that one...what does blocking have to do with radiational cooling on a clear night with calm winds and low dewpoint. That and the fact that temps are dropping all along the seaboard to virginia...maybe someone farted near the sensor to make it go up a degree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 KFOK down to eleven degrees Fahrenheit, temperatures may rise toward sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I was kidding. Definitely calling BS on that one...what does blocking have to do with radiational cooling on a clear night with calm winds and low dewpoint. That and the fact that temps are dropping all along the seaboard to virginia...maybe someone farted near the sensor to make it go up a degree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 thats what happens when there is no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 KFOK down to eleven degrees Fahrenheit, temperatures may rise toward sunrise. yea i was just looking at that...its amazing how well they radiate out there, the closest places that cold north of the city are in extreme NW CT...just a little pocket out there that drops like a rock, what is it, the sandy soil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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