snywx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 12z ECMWF Wunderground Clown Maps. Just 20-30 miles further south and C NJ would be in the game on those Clown Maps, as well as NYC. This is hour 168. How about leaving it right there! ty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 euro ensembles show the weak system before xmas, going to be a real timing issue, can the cold get in here on time Good thing is its a decent HP briging in the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 euro ensembles show the weak system before xmas, going to be a real timing issue, can the cold get in here on time Good thing is its a decent HP briging in the cold It looks like there is a very temporary +PNA spike here which might make this a possibility....extremely precarious setup though and probably won't verify. I hope I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 It looks like there is a very temporary +PNA spike here which might make this a possibility....extremely precarious setup though and probably won't verify. I hope I am wrong its all we got, hope for the best, expect the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 its all we got, hope for the best, expect the worst Yeah it sucks Josh.....just goes to show how much we miss high latitude blocking...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Yeah it sucks Josh.....just goes to show how much we miss high latitude blocking...... did you measure that 5 in norwalk on 10/31? It looked about 5 to me, but was so heavy it mushed down so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 did you measure that 5 in norwalk on 10/31? It looked about 5 to me, but was so heavy it mushed down so quickly I did. We got 2" in about the first 2 hours of the storm....it was miserable to measure, I was at like 32.9 for most of the storm and then we finally got to 32.5 at like 6pm and racked up the additional accums..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 18z GFS has the coastal for Friday but it's warm for the coast. There is a nice high up north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 18z GFS has the coastal for Friday but it's warm for the coast. There is a nice high up north though. prob some wet snow before it turns over, maybe to the coast bigger dog setting up after the holiday, that's our shot as the first system bombs out sets up a 50/50 and a new HP is spreading east courtesy of the pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 prob some wet snow before it turns over, maybe to the coast bigger dog setting up after the holiday, that's our shot as the first system bombs out sets up a 50/50 and a new HP is spreading east courtesy of the pac. A lot of moisture in the gulf at 189 hours. It looks like it will turn right up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 almost on that run.. trough can't go negative.. OTS solution. SHortwave looks to really fall apart . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 GFS needs to get more cold air down to the coast. Right now, the trough is set up too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 GFS needs to get more cold air down to the coast. Right now, the trough is set up too far west potential is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Huge potential here. 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 fwiw, 18z gefs ensembles are pretty aggressive for the after xmas potential of the two waves, i think we have a better chance with that one, but still a relatively hostile pattern, although not as bad as we saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Huge potential here. 18z GEFS. uggg, i hate when we post them same thing, but you're right, some potential, albeit small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The 18Z GFS looks a darn good setup if you just look at the 500mb out to the west, the ridge is in relatively good position, not too far east or progressing, and not too far off the West Coast, the only issue may be it may not be a large enough ridge to force the downstream phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 uggg, i hate when we post them same thing, but you're right, some potential, albeit small Great minds think a like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 The 18Z GFS looks a darn good setup if you just look at the 500mb out to the west, the ridge is in relatively good position, not too far east or progressing, and not too far off the West Coast, the only issue may be it may not be a large enough ridge to force the downstream phasing. yeah, that's they key, we may get a little help if the xmas wave blows up also, we certainly haven't had any trouble with amplification yet this year, so there is some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 ensembles put that ridge smack dab over the rockies, hopefully that stays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 certainly no torches in the long range either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 18z GEFS also shows some snow for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Even the Xmas eve storm threat looks semi interesting and it's a bit closer to our range. The big high to the north is strong enough to drive and hold low level cold air in even though it warms in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 18z GFS just misses coming up the coast at the end of the run. Beauty watching that form before it starts to truncate. HUGE potential coming up folks. Think winter my give us a quick roar next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 the post christmas storm has a shot. the baroclinic zone is forced far enough offshore from the first system a few days before it. there is a good cold air source in place and a well placed/timed ridge over the Rockies. The problem is that without the blocking, a phased system will come right up the coast. The middle ground may only offer a light snowfall in a DGEX type solution. Otherwise without a phase/strong shortwave the system slides offshore. Such is life without a favorable pattern over Canada and the higher latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 the post christmas storm has a shot. the baroclinic zone is forced far enough offshore from the first system a few days before it. there is a good cold air source in place and a well placed/timed ridge over the Rockies. The problem is that without the blocking, a phased system will come right up the coast. The middle ground may only offer a light snowfall in a DGEX type solution. Otherwise without a phase/strong shortwave the system slides offshore. Such is life without a favorable pattern over Canada and the higher latitudes. well the ridge out west will provide a little protection even if we do phase more, and there is some indication the xmas system bombs out which could help the coastal plain something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 so far out and I only post this as something to watch, but check out the xmas storm which gets up to the 50/50 spot and temporarily brings in some higher heights south of greenland. Working in tandum with the ridge out west, the thread could get through the needle. if it did happen, we are looking at a very FM system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 the post christmas storm has a shot. the baroclinic zone is forced far enough offshore from the first system a few days before it. there is a good cold air source in place and a well placed/timed ridge over the Rockies. The problem is that without the blocking, a phased system will come right up the coast. The middle ground may only offer a light snowfall in a DGEX type solution. Otherwise without a phase/strong shortwave the system slides offshore. Such is life without a favorable pattern over Canada and the higher latitudes. I agree. I also think the first system would have to be stronger over the Canadian Maritimes, to prevent a phased storm from tracking too far NW. But without -NAO, it would all have to be timed well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Interesting video by Steve D http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2011/12/18/long-range-video-discussion-for-december-18-2011/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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