Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 no. but thank you for asking. wasnt a question tough guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Euro doesn't look half bad at 240 hrs The PAC looks phenomenal, really good for a nina year, but the heights over the DS refuse to inch up....at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Euro doesn't look half bad at 240 hrs That's coming inland John and will be warm. No HP, no 50/50 and a PV in canada thats going to over amplify the flow by creating a fully phased rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 wasnt a question tough guy Ok, the answer is still No. This should take us through the second half of the month because the goal is to not just have straight up all talk in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 This is an important travel time. It does look like rain for the reasons mentioned, but, am I missing anything? Is there a way this could be snow, based upon the set-up? It looks like no features are in place that would keep cold air locked-in. Am I missing anything? Euro doesn't look half bad at 240 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 This is an important travel time. It does look like rain for the reasons mentioned, but, am I missing anything? Is there a way this could be snow, based upon the set-up? It looks like no features are in place that would keep cold air locked-in. Am I missing anything? As modeled today looks like a stinker to me with no real chance to finally get the thread through the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Thank you. I see the same thing you do. It is just a very important travel time and I want to see if anyone else sees anything that we are missing. As modeled today looks like a stinker to me with no real chance to finally get the thread through the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z EC hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 & 12z CMC hr 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 As I said stinker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 At least there is some troughing in the east and plenty of time to see if we can build on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 and actually as long as this is a banter thread, the 12z GFS actually had a swing and a miss out to sea, but a storm none the less at hr 324 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 and actually as long as this is a banter thread, the 12z GFS actually had a swing and a miss out to sea, but a storm none the less at hr 324 talked about it on page one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yeah my bad, late to the party again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I can't believe when you compare the current weather and the upcoming forecast to the past two years - it's just incredible.. We were about to get hit by massive snowstorms 2 years ago and last year and yet it seems as though October 29th, 2011 was the beginning and end of winter - 2011/12.. Based upon what everyone has been saying it may not snow before January 10th - on the coast.. Maybe winter will never arrive this year.. So strange! I wouldn't discount something like this... I mean how often do you get 7-8 major snowstorms (some KU) in 2 years. 3/09, 12/09, 2/10 (2 or 3 storms), 12/10, 1/11 (2 storms)? Point is, nothing would surprise me at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Based upon what everyone has been saying it may not snow before January 10th - on the coast.. Maybe winter will never arrive this year.. So strange! I wouldn't discount something like this... Who is everyone? I want names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Next week's storm is now suppressed on the GFS. It went from an inland storm to a suppresed storm in 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Who is everyone? I want names. Not me I got money on January 3rd,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Next week's storm is now suppressed on the GFS. It went from an inland storm to a suppresed storm in 1 run. Better off then rain. We'll see what happens next run. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Next week's storm is now suppressed on the GFS. It went from an inland storm to a suppresed storm in 1 run. Verbatim, it looks like it gives C NJ and NYC some light snow, but a high to the north squashes the area of disturbed weather to the south. This needs to be watched IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 FWIW the 18z GEFS agrees with the 18z GFS with a supressed SWFE in a gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Just a heads up (especially for those who dont read ot or other subforums), all eyes are on the wx side right now. Follow the rules, especially with regards to the banter threads vs the discussion/science threads. It will help make the wx side even better than it already is, and will keep the subforum gaining the respect it deserves. On that note....it feels oddly like snow outside....we finally got a stretch of winter type days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 FWIW the 18z GEFS agrees with the 18z GFS with a supressed SWFE in a gradient pattern. To say the ensemble solutions are varied would be the understatement of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Just a heads up (especially for those who dont read ot or other subforums), all eyes are on the wx side right now. Follow the rules, especially with regards to the banter threads vs the discussion/science threads. It will help make the wx side even better than it already is, and will keep the subforum gaining the respect it deserves. On that note....it feels oddly like snow outside....we finally got a stretch of winter type days. The past couple of nights finally have that winter feel in the air. Let's hope we can squeeze some flakes Sunday evening and then the day 8 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Just a heads up (especially for those who dont read ot or other subforums), all eyes are on the wx side right now. Follow the rules, especially with regards to the banter threads vs the discussion/science threads. It will help make the wx side even better than it already is, and will keep the subforum gaining the respect it deserves. On that note....it feels oddly like snow outside....we finally got a stretch of winter type days. John brought it up yesterday and a few of us were talking about it early this morning in OT. Also, as you probably noticed, a new banter thread was started and the first thing I noted was what should shouldn't be in here. Agree with you about this subforum gaining the respect it deserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 To say the ensemble solutions are varied would be the understatement of the year The Individual ENS members are all over the place with this storm, which is an example with why nothing is set in stone. I find it interesting though that the ENS Mean looks very similar to the Operational with a weak suppressed SWFE, but there are some amped members in the mix, and some members that don't give the area any precip with this storm at all. I also find it really interesting that not a single ENS Member looks like the Operational 18z GFS (except for maybe c000) but the 18z GEFS mean looks like the 18z GFS for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Looking anywhere for some snow, this old home movie tickled my fancy. This is from an area that doesn't get much snow, about 50 miles north of Gulfport, MS but it looks to have been a pretty decent snowstorm, so much so that it probably wouldn't be too hard to narrow down the date that it occured. I'd love to find some old video like this from my neck of the woods. Should bring a smile to some snow starved faces: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nick Gregory did something tonight he usually doesn't do. He reported Belmar's high of fifty-five degrees fahrenheit. They are not an official climate station, but he didn't mention any skepticism about the temperature. Amongst the official climate stations in the region, the only station I could find that had a maximum temperature near fifty-five degrees Fahrenheit was Charlottsville, VA. It is possible that Belmar's maximum temperature report was legitimate, but I would have at least a healthy amount of skepticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nick Gregory did something tonight he usually doesn't do. He reported Belmar's high of fifty-five degrees fahrenheit. They are not an official climate station, but he didn't mention any skepticism about the temperature. Amongst the official climate stations in the region, the only station I could find that had a maximum temperature near fifty-five degrees Fahrenheit was Charlottsville, VA. It is possible that Belmar's maximum temperature report was legitimate, but I would have at least a healthy amount of skepticism. BLM's high was 46, not sure where he got his info. Either way, highs area wide were generally mid 40s, 10 degrees lower than that reported temperatures. Given the current synoptic set-up there's no way that number could be legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nick Gregory did something tonight he usually doesn't do. He reported Belmar's high of fifty-five degrees fahrenheit. They are not an official climate station, but he didn't mention any skepticism about the temperature. Amongst the official climate stations in the region, the only station I could find that had a maximum temperature near fifty-five degrees Fahrenheit was Charlottsville, VA. It is possible that Belmar's maximum temperature report was legitimate, but I would have at least a healthy amount of skepticism. Maybe it was a typo and he read it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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