TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 euro ensembles at 216 and 240 AT 500MB. there is hope here. Besides the good enough ridge out west, looks like a free safety coming over the top of greenland may just be enough, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 euro ensembles at 216 and 240 AT 500MB. there is hope here. Besides the good enough ridge out west, looks like a free safety coming over the top of greenland may just be enough, we will see. That free safety might be hit with an illegal contact penalty giving La Nina a first down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 euro ensembles at 216 and 240 AT 500MB. there is hope here. Besides the good enough ridge out west, looks like a free safety coming over the top of greenland may just be enough, we will see. not bad at all for the holidays..woudn't it be funny if we could squeeze a white christmas out of this December horror?..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 not bad at all for the holidays..woudn't it be funny if we could squeeze a white christmas out of this December horror?..lol I think we will all just be happy to see a different pattern look how the PV is finalyl displaced enough to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think we will all just be happy to see a different pattern look how the PV is finalyl displaced enough to matter. Good posts lately trials, I agree. Have to say, I'm impressed, didn't think you were this smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Good posts lately trials, I agree. Have to say, I'm impressed, didn't think you were this smart. I mean, talk about a high five and then a kick to the butt, ouch. LOL You and me are on the same page right now, which people should be very excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I mean, talk about a high five and then a kick to the butt, ouch. LOL You and me are on the same page right now, which people should be very excited about. Fighting crime by day, tracking weather day and night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Upton's forecast is quite optimistic for the mid week storm, shown as a rain/snow mix IMBY for Tuesday night and Wednesday. While a bit of frozen precip at the start of the storm is possible, there's not much cold air in place (the cold air on the CMC is definitely overdone), and the cold that is there would quickly be pushed out as the low pressure approaches, probably ending up as a light rain/snow scenario to start in parts of the area before a changeover to rain going later into Tuesday night and Wednesday, with temps possibly reaching 50 degrees once again in the southern parts of the area on Wednesday. On the positive side, at least seeing a chance of snow even showing up in parts of the area is better than what we've seen so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Jay, this is not a virga sounding from the gfs its fully saturated between -10 and -20 and all the way to the surface we see some flakes from this how many I don't care, its not rain and its not 60 degrees true... I hadn't really looked at the soundings.. There is a bit of a dryer layer in the lower levels.. it's not completely dry though.. not sure what impact it might have... but we'll see how it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Interesting observation from Patuxent River, MD, which I don't think is automated, reporting light ice pellets (-PL) at 43oF and a dew point temperature of 27oF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Euro ensembles are showing a pretty good PNA rise around Xmas time. At this point I don't event think a PNA can save us, the problem is that damn PV just refuses to set up shop anywhere S or SW of Eskimo territory in NE Canada. Until that changes we can have a ridge up into Santa Claus' neck of the woods and it won't matter, we'll still see the cold air generally staying north and storm systems will either be too progressive or cut to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Gfs is showing what a bad pattern does. Rain for lakes cutters and rain for coastals. No cold air anywhere through hour 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 GFS = Good for **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Gfs is showing what a bad pattern does. Rain for lakes cutters and rain for coastals. No cold air anywhere through hour 168. GFS does have snowshowers Christmas eve day..and a clipper for Christmas night..not a bad run from the 24th thru the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 American models seem to be hinting at an ocean effect snow event over Cape Cod this weekend...so one can always take a boat ride east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 GFS does have snowshowers Christmas eve day..and a clipper for Christmas night..not a bad run from the 24th thru the 27th It was a pretty miserable run...especially after 18z being half decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Gfs is showing what a bad pattern does. Rain for lakes cutters and rain for coastals. No cold air anywhere through hour 168. Agreed, but we might be a hair closer to some sort of minor change if the western ridge helps the post-Xmas day clipper hold together as it passes quickly over us--the kind of system that in decent years produces at most an inch or two of snow. But even more often, and especially in bad winter seasons, they dry out as they move e-ne-ward from the northern plains and we get little or nothing. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 0z GGEM lost the Christmas coastal storm. It drives the low inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 0z ggem on December 26. It just misses the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Euro bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Operational ECM looks nothing like the ensemble means! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 American models seem to be hinting at an ocean effect snow event over Cape Cod this weekend...so one can always take a boat ride east... Euro has also been showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 stil feeling good for the 25-29th for something relatively big. waa event, stil a ways out, could come back, but as I said, that was low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Perfect spot this far out. Really cold air with a nice high up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Since this is a banter thread, I can throw in my two cents of vagueness... While it is nice to have something to track, snow is going to be elusive in this pattern regardless of what the models show. Contrast this year with the same time last year, we were staring down the barrel of a pattern that was locked and loaded. It was just a matter of waiting for the little players on the field to fall in line with the -AO and -NAO. We knew that a 12/26 pattern or the following "snowicane" were both possibilities in a killer pattern like that. I'm sure a smaller snow event is possible, mostly because Wxoutlooks said it is a remote possibility...but searching for a storm in a bad pattern is a far different animal than searching for a storm in the incredible pattern we had for the start of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Its flurrying in tornadojays backyard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Since this is a banter thread, I can throw in my two cents of vagueness... While it is nice to have something to track, snow is going to be elusive in this pattern regardless of what the models show. Contrast this year with the same time last year, we were staring down the barrel of a pattern that was locked and loaded. It was just a matter of waiting for the little players on the field to fall in line with the -AO and -NAO. We knew that a 12/26 pattern or the following "snowicane" were both possibilities in a killer pattern like that. I'm sure a smaller snow event is possible, mostly because Wxoutlooks said it is a remote possibility...but searching for a storm in a bad pattern is a far different animal than searching for a storm in the incredible pattern we had for the start of last winter. pretty much yeah. except most of us arent searching for a big storm, we are searching for a few flakes :blush: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Flurries flying where Im shopping. Garden City area of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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