Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro is actually seasonal to borderline cold after the 1 warm storm. Nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro maybe has possible light snow late christmas day via a weak cold front... someone tell me where that moisture is coming from though.. that's a pretty generous QPF output. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 no one said anything more than seeing some flakes, which is all that setup provides, flakes You are 100% correct that the lift is lacking but 700 is saturated so if there is a shot. At this point, I am more excited to see what happens after the 25th I hope we see some flakes... I just hope the last couple of GFS runs don't verify in that New Year's time frame.. god, that is really ugly. It seems like the 25th - 28th is the shot to thread any kind of needle before ugliness occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 i'm a bit wound up more than usual right now.. you'll have to forgive my rantings.. I have my year-end review with my manager in a half hour.. talk about 90 minutes of hell... and on a Friday afternoon nonetheless... this sux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I hope we see some flakes... I just hope the last couple of GFS runs don't verify in that New Year's time frame.. god, that is really ugly. It seems like the 25th - 28th is the shot to thread any kind of needle before ugliness occurs. I think we've been on that bridge since late October, unless it gets even worse which I don't see how it could get any worse than it is now. I'm starting to wonder if we'll even get snow considerably how horrendous the pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 agreed, but we're men, we will get over it my point was you were pretty aggressive on that inside of 48 hours and are completely dismissive of this, which probably has about the same possibility of verifying. i will delete my post becuase you're right, that was not the right thing to do. you didn't have to delete it, it's fair game. it's a forecast I made publicly so you can repost it as much as you want. I just wasn't expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Just think, in a week or so, we can start the countdown to the 1st day of spring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Too early for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 you didn't have to delete it, it's fair game. it's a forecast I made publicly so you can repost it as much as you want. I just wasn't expecting it. Right church, wrong pew I did not do that to point out you didn't get the forecast correct, lord knows I fail, i am just surprised how adamant you are that it won't happen given how you weren't that way with the last threat, that is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Actually what i find pretty amazing is that with the problems the models are having at 132 hrs out ..we are looking at beyond 180 hours out and its potentials. I guess my point is that if the models are having this much trouble in the shorter term you can expect even more trouble with the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 I hope we see some flakes... I just hope the last couple of GFS runs don't verify in that New Year's time frame.. god, that is really ugly. It seems like the 25th - 28th is the shot to thread any kind of needle before ugliness occurs. Jay, this is not a virga sounding from the gfs its fully saturated between -10 and -20 and all the way to the surface we see some flakes from this how many I don't care, its not rain and its not 60 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro says great travel weather the day before Christmas for the whole country. Well that's depressing. I'm one of those sick twisted freaks who enjoys driving on snow covered roads. People say, "I can't go out now, roads are icy!". Me: "Hell you talking about? All the better." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Well that's depressing. I'm one of those sick twisted freaks who enjoys driving on snow covered roads. People say, "I can't go out now, roads are icy!". Me: "Hell you talking about? All the better." Dont worry, it may get people on the way back The euro wasn't far from makng something bigger around the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I have to agree with John on this one.. at least based on what I'm seeing now. I know that there's talk that WAA come in a bit quicker than anticipated and all that, but look at this system overall.. this is a pretty weak system... you've gotta be able to overcome some dry air produce enough insentropic lift for it to precip... look at the omega values on the GFS.. they're basically weak to non-existant.. I just don't think it has the capability to produce precip that hits the ground during a time when the column is cold enough to still produce snow... at best, I can see a couple of random, mangled flakes. I agree. The WAA itself really weak. The models show qpf, because they sneak a cold front Monday night through the area. This forces the warmer air to rise above cold air faster, which squeezes any out moisture. But it the models were to trend with more qpf, they will likely be warmer, because the WAA will be stronger. On the other hand, it the cold front was stronger or further south, it would be drier. Basically little room again for a good solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Dont worry, it may get people on the way back The euro wasn't far from makng something bigger around the 27th sounds like a honking noise from ur direction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 sounds like a honking noise from ur direction.. It's just sticking out to me for some reason. Let's see what happens in the coming days. Its going to be a sqeeker because of the atlantic, but are really strong setup out west can do it sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I agree. The WAA itself really weak. The models show qpf, because they sneak a cold front Monday night through the area. This forces the warmer air to rise above cold air faster, which squeezes any out moisture. But it the models were to trend with more qpf, they will likely be warmer, because the WAA will be stronger. On the other hand, it the cold front was stronger or further south, it would be drier. Basically little room again for a good solution. Theres a middle point there though. Models generally have about .10" of precip. A slight bump to .20"-.25" can be had and that will at least whiten some surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It's just sticking out to me for some reason. Let's see what happens in the coming days. Its going to be a sqeeker because of the atlantic, but are really strong setup out west can do it sometimes. too bad its 11 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 sounds like a honking noise from ur direction.. the euro leaves back some southern stream energy and this run was purely northern stream driven..we'll see if that energy ejects out and phases in future runs..Long way to go and probably a long shot to get something good, but its worth watching atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 too bad its 11 days away... yeah, but I don't know its weird, I got gut feeling. Speaking of weird check out this dream I had last night. I actually dreamt that the finger lakes expanded all the way to jersey and earthlight was getting lake effect from them. How crazy is that? So not only would he clean up from the noreasters, now he would get lake effect. Nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 yeah, but I don't know its weird, I got gut feeling. Speaking of weird check out this dream I had last night. I actually dreamt that the finger lakes expanded all the way to jersey and earthlight was getting lake effect from them. How crazy is that? So not only would he clean up from the noreasters, now he would get lake effect. Nuts! At least in this pattern he still would have no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 getting better. We are seeing warming on the other side of the globe which is pushing the pv out of place just enough to push the gradient south. Also don't see any indication of the one eyed monster coming back in the GOA. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Good news is, climatology gets rapidly more favorable for us post December 15th as the mean jet position shifts swd and averages plummet. We do have a continued +PNA/-EPO signal through the end of December, but no blocking. So essentially a similar pattern to the past couple weeks only we're talking much better stats climo wise. It's quite a bit easier to get overrunning frozen pcpn or any frozen for that matter in a crappy pattern by Dec 20th and beyond. Will it be major? No. Without any AO or NAO blocking, I'd safely rule out anything 10"+. However, properly timed moderate event is certainly within the realm of possibilities. I'm not too excited about next week's overrunning; mid level warmth usually flows in quite quickly and there's not even strong surface cold to allow the snow to stick initially. Banking on significant evaporational cooling via overrunning events usually doesn't work out too well. Generally I remember snow falling to beat the band but temps either holding steady or slowly rising (maybe a slight drop initially, but in this case, temps will be in the 40s when precip arrives). Looks to me at least right now like a light, wet, non accumulating snow that's more of a tease than anything. This is a situation where elevated areas could pick up a few inches maybe. I'm more interested in the potential around Christmas when we've got some actual polar air to work with. Not severe cold, but cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Theres a middle point there though. Models generally have about .10" of precip. A slight bump to .20"-.25" can be had and that will at least whiten some surfaces. Whatever it winds up being, it would narrow zone, where anyone will see much. Half the area, will probably get screwed. You have to watch BL temps too, if it's not heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 At least in this pattern he still would have no snow. Excellent point!!! LOLZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Whatever it winds up being, it would narrow zone, where anyone will see much. Half the area, will probably get screwed. You have to watch BL temps too, if it's not heavy. Well, someone always gets screwed, other than earthlight, I always cheer on my neighbors to get snow, so if get screwed, I hope others do well. And no one will cry over missing a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro ensembles are showing a pretty good PNA rise around Xmas time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro ensembles are showing a pretty good PNA rise around Xmas time. Yeah, coastalwx says something about this in the SNE thread they will be up on Raleigh soon I just want to wake up tomorrow excited about the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 12 Z ensemble means for the ECM @ 192 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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