ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 those "events" never work out. the waa is always under forecast and whatever falls usually falls after the column warms. When there is WAA well ahead of the main system, we've seen those overperform many, many times. Not saying it will happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 those "events" never work out. the waa is always under forecast and whatever falls usually falls after the column warms. The precip in overrunning events always come in faster than modeled. This might work out in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The NOAGPS closes off the Christmas storm and keeps it to our south giving the Mid Atlantic States a nice blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 ^^^ That map looks really warm. I don't see a blizzard anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The NOAGPS closes off the Christmas storm and keeps it to our south giving the Mid Atlantic States a nice blizzard This post officially confirms that you cannot read forecast model images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 its snow on the gfs soundings the 540 line is a little north on the euro but 850's plenty cold. I agree with you there.. however, based on the strength of the system and the lack of forcing, I don't think that the .01-.05 outputs would verify when it is cold enough to snow. I don't think that precip actually makes it to the ground. I'd want to see a stronger overrunning pattern... I'm not just looking at the gradient itself.. I know it's there, but I want to see the flow crossing the gradient. The wind profile on the GFS during that timeframe is very unimpressive in terms of the veering pattern. I look at that as a day with an overcast midlevel deck of clouds where it looks and feels like it might snow, but it doesn't. I'm not saying it won't snow, but I'd want to see some improvement in terms of the forcing when it is still cold enough. I hope that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This post officially confirms that you cannot read forecast model images. Not only that, the nogaps has the overunning event and plenty cold also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The NOAGPS closes off the Christmas storm and keeps it to our south giving the Mid Atlantic States a nice blizzard If somehow you can get a blizzard with temps in the 40s, then yes, we are good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 wow, can't believe YanksFan posted that, LOLZ Worst post ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 those "events" never work out. the waa is always under forecast and whatever falls usually falls after the column warms. I have to agree with John on this one.. at least based on what I'm seeing now. I know that there's talk that WAA come in a bit quicker than anticipated and all that, but look at this system overall.. this is a pretty weak system... you've gotta be able to overcome some dry air produce enough insentropic lift for it to precip... look at the omega values on the GFS.. they're basically weak to non-existant.. I just don't think it has the capability to produce precip that hits the ground during a time when the column is cold enough to still produce snow... at best, I can see a couple of random, mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This post officially confirms that you cannot read forecast model images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This post officially confirms that you cannot read forecast model images. Sorry I'm posting from my phone and the 850 line was hard to see, but yes I agree it would be a big "rain storm" on the NOAGPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 well tickle me pink, euro has cooled down a ton for that xmas vort. Brings a 1032 high across the northern CONUS and flatens out the whole flow at least its not rain for xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 wow, can't believe YanksFan posted that, LOLZ Worst post ever? He's probably flipping out, to his standards the GFS and Euro show 14 blizzards through day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I have to agree with John on this one.. at least based on what I'm seeing now. I know that there's talk that WAA come in a bit quicker than anticipated and all that, but look at this system overall.. this is a pretty weak system... you've gotta be able to overcome some dry air produce enough insentropic lift for it to precip... look at the omega values on the GFS.. they're basically weak to non-existant.. I just don't think it has the capability to produce precip that hits the ground during a time when the column is cold enough to still produce snow... at best, I can see a couple of random, mangled flakes. Yeah I def. agree with this. I've seen these types of things modeled hundreds of times. WAA is the devil, man. Never comes through when you need it and always ruins things when you don't want it. These events more often than not will disappear as we get closer, or just trend warmer. Next.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah I def. agree with this. I've seen these types of things modeled hundreds of times. WAA is the devil, man. Never comes through when you need it and always ruins things when you don't want it. These events more often than not will disappear as we get closer, or just trend warmer. Next.. Yes. But we've also seen them overperform. There's nothing else to follow that isnt in fantasy range. Lets hope for a precip bump in the next 2-3 days and for models to hold the colder solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah I def. agree with this. I've seen these types of things modeled hundreds of times. WAA is the devil, man. Never comes through when you need it and always ruins things when you don't want it. These events more often than not will disappear as we get closer, or just trend warmer. Next.. These type of storms always arrive earlier than forecasted . Like I said, this will help us if it does because we would have cold air already in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 These type of storms always arrive earlier than forecasted . Like I said, this will help us if it does because we would have cold air already in place. Not always earlier Anthony. Sometimes. Earthlight and Tornadojay are right that these kinds of waa events usually dont work out. But sometimes they do. Hopefully this is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro says great travel weather the day before Christmas for the whole country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro says great travel weather the day before Christmas for the whole country. its also cooking up a post xmas meal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Euro says great travel weather the day before Christmas for the whole country. The Euro dappens the low. Just where we want it at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 earthlight is coming to rip me a new one in 3, 2, 1........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 You're funny, this has probably just as much probability to come through as the storm you were trumping a week ago with this map. Dunno man, don't be so dismissive Yikes, dude. I never understand the point in bumping a forecast that might have been off by an inch in some spots, lol. I was clearly indicating that the potential for snow accumulations was in the higher elevations. That threat is completely different from this one, there is no connection. That was a surprisingly immature post from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yes. But we've also seen them overperform. There's nothing else to follow that isnt in fantasy range. Lets hope for a precip bump in the next 2-3 days and for models to hold the colder solutions. The fact that we have nothing to follow doesn't make this set up any more legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yikes, dude. I never understand the point in bumping a forecast that might have been off by an inch in some spots, lol. I was clearly indicating that the potential for snow accumulations was in the higher elevations. That threat is completely different from this one, there is no connection. That was a surprisingly immature post from you. agreed, but we're men, we will get over it my point was you were pretty aggressive on that inside of 48 hours and are completely dismissive of this, which probably has about the same possibility of verifying. i will delete my post becuase you're right, that was not the right thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 These type of storms always arrive earlier than forecasted . Like I said, this will help us if it does because we would have cold air already in place. The storms "arrive" faster because the WAA is under forecast and brings precipitation with it earlier. Unfortunately the warm air comes with the package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Not always earlier Anthony. Sometimes. Earthlight and Tornadojay are right that these kinds of waa events usually dont work out. But sometimes they do. Hopefully this is one of them. If I see the models .01'ing the QPF map to death in a weak WAA set-up, I pretty much consider it virga and phantom precip. If the models start showing a bit more QPF in the way of .25", then I'll start considering that we'll measure more than a trace.. It looks like it eventually does, but after it's a bit too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 If I see the models .01'ing the QPF map to death in a weak WAA set-up, I pretty much consider it virga and phantom precip. If the models start showing a bit more QPF in the way of .25", then I'll start considering that we'll measure more than a trace.. It looks like it eventually does, but after it's a bit too warm. Definetely agree. Unless we see .25" at least, it will be tough for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 If I see the models .01'ing the QPF map to death in a weak WAA set-up, I pretty much consider it virga and phantom precip. If the models start showing a bit more QPF in the way of .25", then I'll start considering that we'll measure more than a trace.. It looks like it eventually does, but after it's a bit too warm. no one said anything more than seeing some flakes, which is all that setup provides, flakes You are 100% correct that the lift is lacking but 700 is saturated so if there is a shot. At this point, I am more excited to see what happens after the 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 sooo what if the euro doesnt hold back that energy in the SW? in the 7-10 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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