Weathergun Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yesterday we were looking at a lakes cutter for the day 5 storm. Euro and other models flipped last night and now have a swfe and a coastal. Will probably still be rain for the coast, but it bears watching. The confluence further north will be probably be a little too strong for Lakes cutter. But I don't it will be enough to keep this storm to our south. I like a Ohio Valley to New England track. Either way, it still mostly if not all rain for the coast. But the inland areas could see more snow and sleet to begin with, on that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 ^ The Alaskan death vortex is back. Yikes. Let's hope it's wrong and pretend we didn't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The confluence further north will be probably be a little too strong for Lakes cutter. But I don't it will be enough to keep this storm to our south. I like a Ohio Valley to New England track. Either way, it still mostly if not all rain for the coast. But the inland areas could see more snow and sleet to begin with, on that track. Agreed. But at this point, 20 minutes of sleet would be a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 ^ The Alaskan death vortex is back. Yikes. Let's hope it's wrong and pretend we didn't see it. I don't think that is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 ^ The Alaskan death vortex is back. Yikes. Let's hope it's wrong and pretend we didn't see it. As long as it's not a massive, deep vortex over Alaska and NW Canada, it won't be as bad as what we saw over November. If it's just a smaller vortex, we could still kick some heights over Western Canada, to give us a chance at something. But it wouldn't be a good pattern still for anything major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 As long as it's not a massive, deep vortex over Alaska and NW Canada, it won't be as bad as what we saw over November. If it's just a smaller vortex, we could still kick some heights over Western Canada, to give us a chance at something. But it wouldn't be a good pattern still for anything major. I agree in principle but when the rest of the pattern is so terribly unsupportive these things become magnified. I have serious trouble we will see anything noteworthy in regards to snowfall in the city through the rest of 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I agree in principle but when the rest of the pattern is so terribly unsupportive these things become magnified. I have serious trouble we will see anything noteworthy in regards to snowfall in the city through the rest of 2011. Seeing as theres only 14 days left in 2011, that doesnt worry me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I agree in principle but when the rest of the pattern is so terribly unsupportive these things become magnified. I have serious trouble we will see anything noteworthy in regards to snowfall in the city through the rest of 2011. I don't really disagree here. I'm not expecting much snow in NYC, either. But late December and early January, typical colder for us, anyway. So I can't completely rule out a light or moderate event, even this pattern, especially N&W of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 For the sake of obs, a 15 degree drop since the overnight. Temps in the mid 40s now with a strong wnw wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I know. It's almost starting to feel like December....well ok November.... For the sake of obs, a 15 degree drop since the overnight. Temps in the mid 40s now with a strong wnw wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 the forecasted height anomolies on the 6Z GFS are absolutely atrocious.. Aside from the extreme SW U.S., the height anomolies are positive for practically 75% of the country through the entire forecast period.. and then, it ends with a massive slap in the face, especially for the midwest.. height anomolies across the extreme upper midwest and southern Canada are at least 3 SDs above normal.. check out the 850 temps... holy mother of god.. 12-16 C on January 1st... That would be absolutely unreal... it's fantasy land so it will probably never verify even close to that, but I've never seen anything like that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 According to main board people, the warming in the stratosphere has reversed again...it was just a temporary spike. Stick a fork in it people. This winter is donezo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 According to main board people, the warming in the stratosphere has reversed again...it was just a temporary spike. Stick a fork in it people. This winter is donezo. Sadly starting to agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Im not trolling, but look at the posts from mid-november, people said, well if no pattern change signals by mid-December, then we get worried...well, no pattern change on horizon, so im slowly getting depressed about it. The bad part is i cant even go to vt or upstate and find good skiing, in a pattern like this its all ice on the slopes, only good skiin is out west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Im not trolling, but look at the posts from mid-november, people said, well if no pattern change signals by mid-December, then we get worried...well, no pattern change on horizon, so im slowly getting depressed about it. The bad part is i cant even go to vt or upstate and find good skiing, in a pattern like this its all ice on the slopes, only good skiin is out west... I truly believe it gets better starting next week. Have a little faith, aight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Im not trolling, but look at the posts from mid-november, people said, well if no pattern change signals by mid-December, then we get worried...well, no pattern change on horizon, so im slowly getting depressed about it. The bad part is i cant even go to vt or upstate and find good skiing, in a pattern like this its all ice on the slopes, only good skiin is out west... Bring your skiis to Hawaii. Guidance last year this time was a bit off, maybe again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 the forecasted height anomolies on the 6Z GFS are absolutely atrocious.. Aside from the extreme SW U.S., the height anomolies are positive for practically 75% of the country through the entire forecast period.. and then, it ends with a massive slap in the face, especially for the midwest.. height anomolies across the extreme upper midwest and southern Canada are at least 3 SDs above normal.. check out the 850 temps... holy mother of god.. 12-16 C on January 1st... That would be absolutely unreal... it's fantasy land so it will probably never verify even close to that, but I've never seen anything like that before I strongly agree. Hopefully, the excessive warm anomalies won't verify. A period similar to early January 2007 would be a nightmare for winter weather lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 At least when we do see snow again people will feel more appreciative of what they get instead of complaining how they only recieved 5 inches instead of a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 According to main board people, the warming in the stratosphere has reversed again...it was just a temporary spike. Stick a fork in it people. This winter is donezo. You're joking, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 You're joking, right? Not entirely. My favorite part about the past two winters was how early it snowed. Snow on the ground in December while knowing that the whole winter remains is a great feeling. Snow starting in early february does not stick around as long and we will know chances are it will melt away in a week or two. Last winter was great with the solid snow cover for what, 55 days, something crazy, that simply wont happen if it starts in february. That being said, ill take a massive blizzard in february without a doubt. My hope for another epic winter is fading. Sure, well see snow but i guess after last two winters its kinda lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I strongly agree. Hopefully, the excessive warm anomalies won't verify. A period similar to early January 2007 would be a nightmare for winter weather lovers. I was a baby during the 1949-50 winter and that year was a nightmare...In late December 1949 and early January 1950 NYC had a minimum close to 60...Hard to believe...February 1950 was colder with snow and rain storms and the cold lingered into April...It doesn't look great for snow but you can't rule out a trailing low on a cold front like we saw a few times already...I think that senario could be our best chance for snow until February or March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Not entirely. My favorite part about the past two winters was how early it snowed. Snow on the ground in December while knowing that the whole winter remains is a great feeling. Snow starting in early february does not stick around as long and we will know chances are it will melt away in a week or two. Last winter was great with the solid snow cover for what, 55 days, something crazy, that simply wont happen if it starts in february. That being said, ill take a massive blizzard in february without a doubt. My hope for another epic winter is fading. Sure, well see snow but i guess after last two winters its kinda lame. Fair enough. Our perspectives have been warped by the last two winters. If some solar scientists are correct, there may be more of them to come in the next few decades...But that could just be "tinfoil hat" talk at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Maybe some light over running on the gfs. Has def. trended colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Here is the NYC sounding at 4 days for that over running. Def. far out but its a snow sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Here is the NYC sounding at 4 days for that over running. Def. far out but its a snow sounding Coming from you that's good, youve been spot on so if you see it as a chance of snow it must be lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Coming from you that's good, youve been spot on so if you see it as a chance of snow it must be lol Its a fresh cold airmass and its a weak vort sending out the moisture, that is the ONLY way we get snow in this current pattern. I also like the day or two after xmas for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Its a fresh cold airmass and its a weak vort sending out the moisture, that is the ONLY way we get snow in this current pattern. I also like the day or two after xmas for something. People won't like a light event but deal with it, it's NYC not buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 People won't like a light event but deal with it, it's NYC not buffalo those people need their head examined, snow is snow, they all can't be HECS' just seeing flakes in the air would be nice of course it pours two days before xmas but oh well And i REALLY like the 27th right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 At this point I just want to see some snow...a squall...a dusting..something to remind me its December. I'd hate to go the whole month with literally not even a flake. I noticed Sunday looks to not get out of the mid to upper 30s now. Is it just me or does it seem like the trend for the past few months has been cool on the weekends, moderating early week, torch mid week, precip and then cooling down again late in the week? People won't like a light event but deal with it, it's NYC not buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 For the 12/27-28 time frame, possible split flow WITH nice ridging out west kicking the SE ridge to the curb for a little with a fresh canadian airmass and a northern \ southern stream phase? mmmm, drool. May even get a little help over the top of greenland for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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