mattinpa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Fantasy-land on the GFS (end of run) though looks about the ugliest it has looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm amazed that the pattern hasn't changed in 4 months..quite remarkable if you ask me..not one block..anywhere in 4 months!! Since Irene came thru something happened..I have never seen the pattern exactly the same for such a long period..it's like you look at tonights GFS and it looks like it did a month ago or 2..exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Lee Goldberg mentions a possible white Christmas? http://abclocal.go.c...438&pid=7909127 I'm assuming he's looking at seriously a longshot. Models are coming into better consensus as to a major eastern CONUS storm either coming out of the GOM or tapping Gulf moisture before making the LH turn up toward the northeast. With no high lattitude blocking ahead of it, the HP over the ne will probably exit off the coast allowing warm air to be drawn n-ward as the storm moves over us or to our west (around the 23rd-24th).....but there is colder air up in central Canada on the maps than there has been most of this season, and if there is just a little blocking, some of this cold air might ooze se-ward (not seeing any arctic blast or even close it) toward the ne and make things a little more interesting--an extremely remote possibility of this IMO. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Fantasy-land on the GFS (end of run) though looks about the ugliest it has looked. 384 looks like a strong el nino map for New Years..I dont get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm assuming he's looking at seriously a longshot. Models are coming into better consensus as to a major eastern CONUS storm either coming out of the GOM or tapping Gulf moisture before making the LH turn up toward the northeast. With no high lattitude blocking ahead of it, the HP over the ne will probably exit off the coast allowing warm air to be drawn n-ward as the storm moves over us or to our west (around the 23rd-24th).....but there is colder air up in central Canada on the maps than there has been most of this season, and if there is just a little blocking, some of this cold air might ooze se-ward (not seeing any arctic blast or even close it) toward the ne and make things a little more interesting--an extremely remote possibility of this IMO. WX/PT All it takes is a little blocking, so it's something to ask Santa for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 384 looks like a strong el nino map for New Years..I dont get it It will change, I'm sure. I'm just not sure how much better it will get. That's around the time we should start to see a better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm amazed that the pattern hasn't changed in 4 months..quite remarkable if you ask me..not one block..anywhere in 4 months!! Since Irene came thru something happened..I have never seen the pattern exactly the same for such a long period..it's like you look at tonights GFS and it looks like it did a month ago or 2..exactly A mini block formed in the Davis straight for the Oct 29-30 storm...but its been basically junk since late August for blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 384 looks like a strong el nino map for New Years..I dont get it It actually looks like a raging Nina (which it isn't but acting like) with no help whatsoever from the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 A mini block formed in the Davis straight for the Oct 29-30 storm...but its been basically junk since late August for blocking. Right..a block for 2 days..even in 01-02 it was cold for the holidays and we did get blocking in late December but..there was just no cold air in Canada..I was talking to my weather friend Vinny today and he was amazed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm assuming he's looking at seriously a longshot. Models are coming into better consensus as to a major eastern CONUS storm either coming out of the GOM or tapping Gulf moisture before making the LH turn up toward the northeast. With no high lattitude blocking ahead of it, the HP over the ne will probably exit off the coast allowing warm air to be drawn n-ward as the storm moves over us or to our west (around the 23rd-24th).....but there is colder air up in central Canada on the maps than there has been most of this season, and if there is just a little blocking, some of this cold air might ooze se-ward (not seeing any arctic blast or even close it) toward the ne and make things a little more interesting--an extremely remote possibility of this IMO. WX/PT Time to be creative and use the imagination to make a snowstorm? The 00Z GGEM at 144 hours: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif The 993mb low near Buffalo becomes the pattern changer drawing some cold air se-ward from Canada behind it and the Alberta clipper dropping over Montana drops into the lower Ohio Valley. The Buffalo low becomes the 50/50 and the Ohio Valley low re-develops off the mid-Atlantic coast for the 23rd-24th. It's about a one in twenty chance but not impossible. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GGEM has been showing a christmas storm for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm amazed that the pattern hasn't changed in 4 months..quite remarkable if you ask me..not one block..anywhere in 4 months!! Since Irene came thru something happened..I have never seen the pattern exactly the same for such a long period..it's like you look at tonights GFS and it looks like it did a month ago or 2..exactly It could be the most consistent pattern from summer into winter I can remember other than maybe 2000 when the summer pattern more or less continued unabated straight through the fall and through December before it changed in later January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Not a terrible look on the 10 day euro. Monster ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is the 2nd night in a row I've had to sleep with the window open. I love this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Throughout the whole 0z GFS run, the -20*C 850 mb contour never makes it into the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Not a terrible look on the 10 day euro. Monster ridge out west There is also a storm at 192-204 hrs as well but verbatim its too warm.... though not torch warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 CPC's Jan-Feb-Mar 2012 Temperature Outlook: Major, major nationwide inferno. Above-normal anomalies are off the charts for the Northeast. Looks like NorEaster27 and Al Gore hacked the map. :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 CPC's Jan-Feb-Mar 2012 Temperature Outlook: Major, major nationwide inferno. Above-normal anomalies are off the charts for the Northeast. Looks like NorEaster27 and Al Gore hacked the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I went out for a walk around 2AM wearing a light coat. Eventually I had to take that off and still, by the time I got back, the back of my neck was wet from perspiration. It has just dropped from 57 to 54 here in Jersey City. I thought it was amazing enough that once again yesterday, I could go outside in the afternoon without a coat. But 57 at 4AM on December 16 is just unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is the 2nd night in a row I've had to sleep with the window open. I love this. You seriously let in that nasty air? It's not even a dry comfortable mid 50s its a nasty damp wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 6z gfs ftw for christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 6z gfs ftw for christmas? you like rainshowers while you open Malibu Barbie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is getting ugly that chart has temps above normal all winter, weenie suicide alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 0z euro is not far from giving us a slop storm on day 5-6. And our northern suburbs some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This says it all... today was Central Park's 9th 50+ degree day this month. Even the warm and snowless December 2006 didn't have this many 50+ degree days through 12/15 (7 days, source is wunderground). Source of image Silly NYCSuburbs, didn't you know that winter last year started on December 26th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 JB just posted on fb and said watch out for a major east coast storm at the end of December . Hopefully he is right. I will be praying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is getting ugly that chart has temps above normal all winter, weenie suicide alert It is just a chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 6z gfs ftw for christmas? It looks like a mix based on the surface and 850s, but that was a much improved run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yesterday we were looking at a lakes cutter for the day 5 storm. Euro and other models flipped last night and now have a swfe and a coastal. Will probably still be rain for the coast, but it bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The pattern on 0z Euro Ensemble Mean out 240hr, looks ugly again. The PV is up over Baffin Island and new vortex is moving over Alaska. If it's correct, the cold shot that comes around Christmas is not likely to be severe. It will also be tough to see any snowstorms around here, that week after. Especially for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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