ag3 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 One good thing about the 18z GFS ..it coudn't get worse unless there was an axis shift Worst run I've seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 If the pattern snaps I seriously doubt the models are going to pick up on it 2-3 weeks from now. It may just happen one of these days in the blink of an eye 144-168 hours out. The 18z GFS is garbage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Riding the 71-72 analog folks..no winter till mid Jan, then 4-6 good weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The latest models shifted the best (although not high) flake potential on Sat night-Sun to our south, into eastern PA and Maryland. A few flakes could still be possible here, but there's nothing too exciting about this unless I plan to spend my entire day sticking near the window trying to spot a handful of flakes which have a greater chance of falling than the pattern flipping to much more cold and snow by January 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Anything it shows after Day 5 is up in the air on any model, especially so far this season. The models have had rapid shifts from run to run in even the medium ranges. Also we can only put off any "pattern change" potential for so long before it because inevitable that it won't happen. For me, mid January is as far as you can put it off because any later and you're pretty much setting yourself up for a disaster. At this point, if you don't see pronounced changes in the indices and the models by the near year, then I would pack it in for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I actually feel better given the GFS is showing what it's showing. A month ago we had the GFS teasing us with a constant trough in the Northeast for days 10-15 -- now we're seeing the opposite. The GFS indicating a terrible pattern in its fantasy range may be the best news yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The 18z GFS ensemble mean near Christmas has a deep trough in the east while the op has a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 If the pattern snaps I seriously doubt the models are going to pick up on it 2-3 weeks from now. It may just happen one of these days in the blink of an eye 144-168 hours out. The 18z GFS is garbage... I agree that the models most likely won't pick up any pattern change and stick with it through the medium-short range 2-3 weeks into the longer range, but I'm not so sure that such a pattern change would appear in the blink of an eye. The pattern is locked in place with a cold stratosphere and the +NAO/+AO still there, not showing signs of flipping anytime soon. When the pattern changes, which is still a question that can't be answered definitively, I'd think the models would gradually catch onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Anything it shows after Day 5 is up in the air on any model, especially so far this season. The models have had rapid shifts from run to run in even the medium ranges. Also we can only put off any "pattern change" potential for so long before it because inevitable that it won't happen. For me, mid January is as far as you can put it off because any later and you're pretty much setting yourself up for a disaster. At this point, if you don't see pronounced changes in the indices and the models by the near year, then I would pack it in for this winter. if there is no "clear" signal for a pattern change by jan.10th that includes cold timed with storms on the east coast than winter to me would be in deep trouble, almost hopeless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The 18z GFS ensemble mean near Christmas has a deep trough in the east while the op has a ridge. Low resolution of the individual members results in shortwaves not amplifying in the long range. Thus, no SE ridge. Gefs, IMO, are not a good to use in this type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Low resolution of the individual members results in shortwaves not amplifying in the long range. Thus, no SE ridge. Gefs, IMO, are not a good too use in this type of pattern. And the GFS is? GFS has been terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Low resolution of the individual members results in shortwaves not amplifying in the long range. Thus, no SE ridge. Gefs, IMO, are not a good too use in this type of pattern. The GEFS must be the ultimate weenie model. We would've been underneath a persistent trough with flakes flying the past couple weeks if it had verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 And the GFS is? GFS has been terrible. The GEFS haven't been good as well. I don't keep track of every GEFS run but it seems that almost every run since early November showed signs of a central/eastern trough towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 This is NOT the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 This is from a weatherman from the Accuweather forums. ( I know it's the Accuweather forums but this guy is really knowledgeable and he is not a weenie ) "Waiting on the QBO as it's still taking its time to get into the 50 hPa level both gfs/ecm are showing low level stratosphere vortex split (briefly) and both still showing decent warming in Canada with ecm actually warming up the N. atl nicely by hour 240. PV certainly disrupted a bit PV being relocated to Siberia as expected given the +zonal winds/colder temps temp forecast by ecm for 60N at 10/30 hPa also showing increase we're getting there" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 This is NOT the GFS... Nice PNA ridge on the Euro, it's only a matter of time before the pattern snaps. Even if it takes to mid January, who wouldn't take a bad 2nd half of the winter? The atmosphere will respond.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 FWIW JB on facebook Wait'll you get a load of the motherlode of arctic air that shows up in western Canada in Jan. Warmingistas, get ready to make excusesMassive battleground between fierce cold and major warmth pushes slowly southeast through US in Jan. Lets see if others pick up on this Pac northwest... after Jan 5th, and probably by Jan 15th major and severe cold will invade US.. You guys first. plains in it too Light snow event from lakes to NJ and ne on weekend. Bigger trough amplifies around Christmas Larry Cosgrove As you may be aware, I have been cautioning against belief in the "winter is over" forecast that is being heard in much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. Warming of the stratosphere in Alaska and northern Canada, in combination with a falling sunspot number and unusually active (for a La Nina episode) subtropical jet stream across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are favorable teleconnections for colder than normal conditions to the right of the Rocky Mountains in January and February. It is still not calendar winter yet (and yes, scientifically that means something....), and we need to watch for possible changes in the jet stream configuration before declaring a season "over" before it has already begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 FWIW JB on facebook Larry Cosgrove Not my favorite forecasters, but it seems that they as well are starting to catch on to the idea that any pattern change would likely wait until at least mid January, possibly slightly earlier or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Lee Goldberg mentions a possible white Christmas? http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/video?id=8468438&pid=7909127 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Lee Goldberg mentions a possible white Christmas? http://abclocal.go.c...438&pid=7909127 Broadcast met. Ratings= $$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 it'd be pretty shocking to get a white Christmas in the pattern we're in, but hey, we had a Christmas miracle last year.. somehow, I don't think we're gonna have the same outcome this Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This says it all... today was Central Park's 9th 50+ degree day this month. Even the warm and snowless December 2006 didn't have this many 50+ degree days through 12/15 (7 days, source is wunderground). Source of image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 That sneaky event tomorrow night has been moving north each run. 00z NAM now has light pcpn getting as far n as the MD line and SNJ. Given the underestimation of the SE ridge this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of light snow fri night/sat morning up to PA/NJ maybe even flurries to NYC. At least a wintry weekend ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It's 60 degrees outside. W.T.F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I know there is some sort of hot spot down on the south shore that flares up every once in a while, the geo-thermal activity on the south shore is fascinating. The retreating glaciers from the last ice age ripped through the crust and opened up these schisms. wrote a paper on it in college. Geological surveys long ago established that Hell's Kitchen (not to be confused with the one in Manhattan) is roughly 5 miles directly beneath a White Castle restaurant in Babylon, NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Geological surveys long ago established that Hell's Kitchen (not to be confused with the one in Manhattan) is roughly 5 miles directly beneath a White Castle restaurant in Babylon, NY... haha thanks for the backup...a little late though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Don Sutherland is saying that there is a growing possibility of NYC receiving less than 10 inches for this entire winter; this also takes into account our snowfall in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Don Sutherland is saying that there is a growing possibility of NYC receiving less than 10 inches for this entire winter; this also takes into account our snowfall in October. Imagine our snowiest month being October. Thank would be f***ing strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The GEFS haven't been good as well. I don't keep track of every GEFS run but it seems that almost every run since early November showed signs of a central/eastern trough towards the end. The GEFS have been absolutely atrocious this December. They are obsessed with overwhelming the SE ridge and continue to try and put an EC trough in the means despite a huge +AO...it just doesn't get the zonal flow well for some reason. It loves to over amplify the EPO ridging and the +PNA ridging. Even when +PNA ridging verifies, its been not enough to really cool off much..more like seasonal temps or slightly below average. Not a real cold outbreak. The lack of blocking is killing any arctic cold potential. The EC ensembles have taken them to the woodshed recently after the GEFS performed a bit better early on in November...even then they really started to struggle late in the month for our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 At least the Christmas/just before Christmas storm looks a little better on the 00z GFS than 18z. Cold air is being drawn in as a low forms off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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