TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 I like what I'm seeing on the ECMWF D 8-10. Continues to try to connect the PNA/EPO ridge in Western Canada across the pole to the Central Asian ridge. It's been suggesting this for the past few runs, and if so, we'll be bringing the AO down near 0, maybe even slightly negative in a couple weeks. Given the AO has such a strong correlation with the NAO, once we get the AO to fully turn negative w/ higher than normal heights in the Arctic, the NAO regions should improve as well by early January. See my post in the pinned thread. The atlantic ridge is just begging to burst out in a full blown -NAO, just need the AO to calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I like what I'm seeing on the ECMWF D 8-10. Continues to try to connect the PNA/EPO ridge in Western Canada across the pole to the Central Asian ridge. It's been suggesting this for the past few runs, and if so, we'll be bringing the AO down near 0, maybe even slightly negative in a couple weeks. Given the AO has such a strong correlation with the NAO, once we get the AO to fully turn negative w/ higher than normal heights in the Arctic, the NAO regions should improve as well by early January. Agreed. You can see heights rising over greenland at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 See my post in the pinned thread. The atlantic ridge is just begging to burst out in a full blown -NAO, just need the AO to calm down. Great signs! Maybe things finally looking up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Agreed. You can see heights rising over greenland at the end of the run. That's fleeting at best, but it shows that the good blocking is just a tick away if the AO from hell breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Great signs! Maybe things finally looking up? It is still gonna be 3 weeks IMHO but I do think we see a few shots at something frozen before then. Also, Climo is getting more and more on our side, so that helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 That's fleeting at best, but it shows that the good blocking is just a tick away if the AO from hell breaks down. Any signs of te AO breaking down though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Any signs of te AO breaking down though? Yea only 10 days away! 10 days later...yep should be breaking down day 10 of the run.... 10 days later...wash, rinse, repeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It is still gonna be 3 weeks IMHO but I do think we see a few shots at something frozen before then. Also, Climo is getting more and more on our side, so that helps too. I agree thanks, isn't NYC usually snowless in dec anyway? And temps clearly have gotten colder from 2weeks ago. So like many have been saying the pattern won't change overnight but step down and I think we are seeing signs of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Yea only 10 days away! 10 days later...yep should be breaking down day 10 of the run.... 10 days later...wash, rinse, repeat... It's only 10 days away if you hump the op gfs weenie range or ensembles that go out to 384 hours, or steve D, jb, dt etc. Plenty of us have said no real changes till we get to the new year or slightly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's only 10 days away if you hump the op gfs weenie range or ensembles that go out to 384 hours, or steve D, jb, dt etc. Plenty of us have said no real changes till we get to the new year or slightly thereafter. You've been saying first week of jan for a while! Getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Nice rain showers today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Come on man, this board is PG this is the kind of banter the mods and admins don't want to see on the board. Let's keep the negative focus off of us as nyc has been doing a great job recently, regardless of what one anonymous red tagger who doesnt want to have the burden of teaching people about soundings has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 holy... we're torching over here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 holy... we're torching over here!! Must be that coastal front that moved through around two...temped spiked 18 degrees in an hour, impressive... 15 14:56 SW 14 G 20 10.00 Fair CLR 72 50 47% 30.15 NA 15 13:56 SW 15 G 23 10.00 Overcast FEW025 SCT080 BKN150 OVC250 54 44 69% 29.94 1014.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I'm not seeing anything on the 12Z Euro that's making me jump up and down... the most exciting thing I see is that one of these quick cold shots is currently timed to do well on Christmas day so it will actually feel like Christmas... otherwise, that's pretty much it. Though I do see what folks are talking about in terms of some late ridging over Greenland. I am taking the path of sticking with this same pattern until it actually breaks or there is overwhelming model consensus within a short term forecast period that something is gonna change.. otherwise, I'm not buying into any long-term forecasted pattern changes I see in the models at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Must be that coastal front that moved through around two...temped spiked 18 degrees in an hour, impressive... 15 14:56 SW 14 G 20 10.00 Fair CLR 72 50 47% 30.15 NA 15 13:56 SW 15 G 23 10.00 Overcast FEW025 SCT080 BKN150 OVC250 54 44 69% 29.94 1014.0 wow..that's not right..54 in Farmingdale..how can it 17 degrees warmer 7 miles south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 wow..that's not right..54 in Farmingdale..how can it 17 degrees warmer 7 miles south? I know there is some sort of hot spot down on the south shore that flares up every once in a while, the geo-thermal activity on the south shore is fascinating. The retreating glaciers from the last ice age ripped through the crust and opened up these schisms. wrote a paper on it in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 I know there is some sort of hot spot down on the south shore that flares up every once in a while, the geo-thermal activity on the south shore is fascinating. The retreating glaciers from the last ice age ripped through the crust and opened up these schisms. wrote a paper on it in college. Cue William with a smart reply................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I'm not believing it until a poster from Islip confirms it. How can it be fair btw? We're socked in with overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 this is the kind of banter the mods and admins don't want to see on the board. Let's keep the negative focus off of us as nyc has been doing a great job recently, regardless of what one anonymous red tagger who doesnt want to have the burden of teaching people about soundings has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I'm not believing it until a poster from Islip confirms it. How can it be fair btw? We're socked in with overcast. Yea, there is no way that was correct. It's back down to 54 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 While the sunrise will continue to be later in the morning for the next few weeks, we've officially passed our earliest sunset time of 4:29 after yesterday. Today its increased a minute to 4:30 And that is your useless tidbit for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I'm not believing it until a poster from Islip confirms it. How can it be fair btw? We're socked in with overcast. Again, its the geo-thermal activity, it dries out the air so much that the clouds are diminished in the vicinity. I think Clark-Lobistan did a good article on it back in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I know there is some sort of hot spot down on the south shore that flares up every once in a while, the geo-thermal activity on the south shore is fascinating. The retreating glaciers from the last ice age ripped through the crust and opened up these schisms. wrote a paper on it in college. Go throw some dynamite in one of the hot spots, maybe we can disrupt the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 While the sunrise will continue to be later in the morning for the next few weeks, we've officially passed our earliest sunset time of 4:29 after yesterday. Today its increased a minute to 4:30 And that is your useless tidbit for the day yay! That is the first sign that summer is on the way once the days start getting longer... on the other hand, maybe summer has already arrived a bit early this year. Winter might have ended on October 30th.. just kidding. Winter will get here sometime soon.... ummm, I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 Again, its the geo-thermal activity, it dries out the air so much that the clouds are diminished in the vicinity. I think Clark-Lobistan did a good article on it back in 1985. You're serious? come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 You're serious? come on. This is the B.S. thread isn't it? There are a lot of new emoticons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 This is the B.S. thread isn't it? There are a lot of new emoticons... nope, this is the banter and obs thread, BS was thrown out the window per request of the powers that B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 While the sunrise will continue to be later in the morning for the next few weeks, we've officially passed our earliest sunset time of 4:29 after yesterday. Today its increased a minute to 4:30 And that is your useless tidbit for the day Daylight doesn't really start ramping up until early February, which is why, in my ideal winter, the bulk of the snow and cold comes before Feb 1st ala 2010-11. Love this time of year around the holidays with short days, cold temps, and flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 One good thing about the 18z GFS ..it coudn't get worse unless there was an axis shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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