TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 3:47 PM, Snow88 said: Time to be desperate JB in his morning blog said that he expects snow along the coast on Christmas. He expects the storm to amplify and trend west. Uh huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 2:45 PM, ag3 said: NAM came way north and very warm at 12z. Pretty much gives nobody snow. Not even SNE. Good, if I'm falling on the floor might as well reach out my arms and tear as many people down with me in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 3:47 PM, Snow88 said: Time to be desperate JB in his morning blog said that he expects snow along the coast on Christmas. He expects the storm to amplify and trend west. he is also calling for 3-6 inches tonight/tomorrow from a line from Erie to Boston (75 miles each side of the line) That looks to bust severely especially south of that line....he will bust too on the next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS digging the northern stream more through 78 hours. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Low off the Carolinas coast at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:11 PM, supermeh said: Low off the Carolinas coast at 84 hrs. Short wave needs to be much more negatively tilted given the zonal flow across the CONUS, otherwise that sucker's headed straight out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:13 PM, Isotherm said: Short wave needs to be much more negatively tilted given the zonal flow across the CONUS, otherwise that sucker's headed straight out to sea. Much better though than 6 hours earlier. We really need that northern stream energy to dig to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 He just needs to shut up at this point. He's been wrong all month and other than scoring a coup on the 10/29 storm hasn't been right about much of anything On 12/22/2011 at 4:07 PM, Brian5671 said: he is also calling for 3-6 inches tonight/tomorrow from a line from Erie to Boston (75 miles each side of the line) That looks to bust severely especially south of that line....he will bust too on the next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Positive run. Very close to producing for us. Just needed a little more digging and a more negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 it doesn't matter how far west the last low will track because it won't be cold enough to snow in NYC...you might see a few wet flakes at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:16 PM, ag3 said: Positive run. Very close to producing for us. Just needed a little more digging and a more negative tilt. Won't take much more for an event on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:17 PM, supermeh said: Won't take much more for an event on Monday. Looking just at H5 while it was coming out, I thought it should've produced a bigger surface reflection. But regardless, positive run, if the rest of the 12z suite follows or is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 For the x-mas storm. I think the models are crushing the southern stream with the northern stream too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Maybe JB is onto something for Monday....we'll see. He needs something to break his way...a good dump and all is forgiven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 like isotherm said, we would need a negatively tilted trough to get a storm to deepen up the coast from the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 The xmas storm isn't happening but for something way out on the cape the new years or day after is GAME ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:42 PM, TheTrials said: The xmas storm isn't happening but for something way out on the cape the new years or day after is GAME ON! can i get a hot tub, i mean map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:42 PM, TheTrials said: The xmas storm isn't happening but for something way out on the cape the new years or day after is GAME ON! 12z GFS also says game on for that one.. the Christmas storm is low probability but still should be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:26 PM, CooL said: like isotherm said, we would need a negatively tilted trough to get a storm to deepen up the coast from the delmarva Yeah, and that's going to be difficult to accomplish given the lack of blocking and fast/progressive flow. That short wave needs to amplify and close off at H5 preferrably well west of the area in order for the sfc reflection to look good. Right now the energy congealing b/t the nern and sern waves is progged to occur over our area, which is still not good, because the sfc low develops much too late and well east of the region. We need that phasing to occur over the OH valley such that the southern low is pulled NE rather than ENE off the VA capes. Can it happen? Sure, but the cards are stacked against it since we've got nothing to slow this s/w down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Not that I'm giving up hope on Monday's storm just yet, but I would gladly sacrifice Monday's storm if we had a great January. (and if Trials and HM are excited about January, then so am I!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 4:42 PM, TheTrials said: The xmas storm isn't happening but for something way out on the cape the new years or day after is GAME ON! GEFS has a low near New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 yeah, gefs love the new years time frame like a kid at the candy store! or conversely, Metfan in CVS with double coupons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:13 PM, TheTrials said: yeah, gefs love the new years time frame like a kid at the candy store! or conversely, Metfan in CVS with double coupons GGEM also loves that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:13 PM, TheTrials said: yeah, gefs love the new years time frame like a kid at the candy store! or conversely, Metfan in CVS with double coupons GGEM also loves that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Long range GFS I have to say is about as beautiful as one can expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 12z GFS ensembles for the Christmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The GFS need shows MASSIVE changes in the long range, this may be the pattern change we were waiting for! Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 On 12/22/2011 at 5:55 PM, Neblizzard said: The GFS need shows MASSIVE changes in the long range, this may be the pattern change we were waiting for! Fingers crossed! I know you were looking at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 With 9 days left in the month EWR is running +5.8 and Central Park +5.6. Even if we average out to be near normal to end the month we're in line to be in the top 10 warmest if not top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Don't worry guys. Just go to google and type in "Let it snow" and click enter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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