Porsche Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 http://www.ottawacitizen.com/mobile/story.html?id=5847032 Sounds like that was out of the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 http://www.ottawacit...html?id=5847032 Sounds like that was out of the blue. I think they are only stopping the very early number forecasts from December. They update several times a year. http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011/dec2011/dec2011.pdf We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year and giving a more qualitative discussion of the factors which will determine next year’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill. Reasons for this unexpected lack of skill are discussed. Figure 3 displays real-time forecast versus observed NTC from 1992-2011 for all of our early December extended-range lead time forecasts. We are very disappointed that all three of these early December forecasts, although showing very substantial hindcast skill, did not show real-time forecast skill. The variables that worked well in past years (or in hindcasts) did not continue to show strong relationships when applied to future years. This breakdown in climate prediction relationships is not specific to the prediction of Atlantic basin hurricanes from early December. Because of this lack of real-time forecast skill, we will be issuing qualitative outlooks in early December for the foreseeable future. One of the primary impediments to successful forecasts at this lead time is likely due to the inability to predict ENSO through the springtime predictability barrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terrier Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I think they're just dropping the December forecast and replacing it with likely atmospheric scenarios and the probable impacts of those scenarios on hurricane development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Ok yeah that makes a little more sense, I kind of mis read that at 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 They should probably continue waiting until September to make the final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Ok yeah that makes a little more sense, I kind of mis read that at 1st. You might want to edit the title or at least subtitle a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 We are very disappointed that all three of these early December forecasts, although showing very substantial hindcast skill, did not show real-time forecast skill. So forecasting doesn't work the same as hindcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 We are very disappointed that all three of these early December forecasts, although showing very substantial hindcast skill, did not show real-time forecast skill. So forecasting doesn't work the same as hindcasting? If weather is like the oil field, where all the data at sufficient resolution isn't known, and therefore broad brushed or developed via something called 'Monte Carlo simulation', and approximations have to be made to things like the diffusivity equation because it is essentially unsolvable, and even the approximations are difficult to solve without transforms, a reservoir model for an oilfield will be tweaked using 'hindcasts', and the forecasts still aren't perfect. And Big Oil is probably the single biggest private customer of super-computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think its good for Dr. Gray to abort his early predictions. Making no prediction is better than making a highly uncertain prediction and having it be wrong. Unless your willing to the portray the inherent uncertainly numerically, which is something that the public as a whole has a hard time understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think its good for Dr. Gray to abort his early predictions. Making no prediction is better than making a highly uncertain prediction and having it be wrong. Unless your willing to the portray the inherent uncertainly numerically, which is something that the public as a whole has a hard time understanding. This is good science. Finding no skill in a forecast is a valid reason to discontinue it. I can think there would be others who would continue it for the notariety... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I personally think Dr. Gray is going the right way on this, there is no way you can accurately predict a hurricane season 6 to 9 months in advance, there are such veriables like the Enso, Qbo, Shear patterns, and general instability that can't be predicted more than maybe 2 months out and sometimes less than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 This is good science. Finding no skill in a forecast is a valid reason to discontinue it. I can think there would be others who would continue it for the notariety... CSU should also become more responsible and issue the spread to their customers as opposed to a deterministic mean. Otherwise, it implies there is more skill in their outlooks than there really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I gotta feel for Phil Klotzbach. Even though he's been the primary lead on the forecasts for several years now, it continues to be the "Dr. Gray" hurricane forecast in the majority of circles. Also, the title of this thread really should be changed as it reflects an over-generalized and flawed/biased (IMO) opinion of the author, Tom Spears of the Ottawa Citizen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I gotta feel for Phil Klotzbach. Even though he's been the primary lead on the forecasts for several years now, it continues to be the "Dr. Gray" hurricane forecast in the majority of circles. Also, the title of this thread really should be changed as it reflects an over-generalized and flawed/biased (IMO) opinion of the author, Tom Spears of the Ottawa Citizen. I have a feeling it's more of a marketing thing they're working on now. I mean c'mon, Dr. Klotzbach's Hurricane Outlook? Yeah agree...change the title. It's sensational and it should have been changed before now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Misleading topic headline. The CSU team try to figure out 3 or 4 important variables, test the best ideas through hindcasting, and then tweak the formula to minimize the hindcasting error. In the oilfield, things like this are called regression analysis, and hindcasting is used to test reservoir models where the amount of input data is limited, and the important equations are PDEs that can only be approximated, and even then, solved with transforms. Apparently the skill over climatology on the December forecast is insignificant. If one reads between the lines, unless an unexpected warm ENSO occurs, he is predicting average to above, K&G are just not putting out number ranges for storms, hurricanes, storm days, ACE, etc. April still seems to be coming, and, IIRC, the later in the year, the better the average skill is over climatology. BTW, I believe Gray was one of the early people to link ENSO and TC activity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 A revision of the article at the bottom states that initially the article headline did mistakenly state that they were discontinuing all forecasts...so no need for the OP to be bashed or to bash themselves, it was the publication's error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 A revision of the article at the bottom states that initially the article headline did mistakenly state that they were discontinuing all forecasts...so no need for the OP to be bashed or to bash themselves, it was the publication's error. No one is bashing the OP...just asking the OP to change the title. I believe that's a fair request considering the journalistic error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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