This is not good.

[skierinvermont]

On the one hand the theoretical scientists are saying "its impossible", on the other hand the field scientists are saying "its happening"

This is a complete lie that has been corrected multiple times throughout this thread. The field scientists are not saying 'it's happening.' They are also saying that it's not happening and that it is unlikely that recent methane release is related to recent global warming.

Nor does the amount of methane occasionally emanating from the arctic and unrelated to recent global warming appear to be significant on a global scale.

[salbers]

What then is the reason global methane values have drifted more upward the past 4-5 years? Could it be from surface vegetation in warmer and wetter sub-arctic areas? What's happening in the arctic is significant on a global scale if you look at the higher average methane readings at high latitudes (post #66). This is a significant source region I would think.

[skierinvermont]

What then is the reason global methane values have drifted more upward the past 4-5 years?

Hard to say for sure, as we have a poor accounting of the global methane budget. But humans continue to spew vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere. A slight increase in our emissions, or a slight decrease in the natural buffering capacity would send methane levels rising again, as they have risen from 750 to nearly 2000ppb in the last 150 years due to direct human emissions.

[Vergent]

This is a complete lie that has been corrected multiple times throughout this thread. The field scientists are not saying 'it's happening.' They are also saying that it's not happening and that it is unlikely that recent methane release is related to recent global warming.

Nor does the amount of methane occasionally emanating from the arctic and unrelated to recent global warming appear to be significant on a global scale.

"Losing the Arctic summer sea ice will accelerate the already rapid rate of Arctic warming, which will increase the rate of methane being emitted by the warming Arctic.

This emergency situation for survival

must go straight to the top of the global climate change agenda."

http://www.arctic-me...ncy-group.org/#

"Professor Peter Wadhams, on behalf of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, spoke about this critical issue at the December 2011 American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference in San Francisco, USA. Key elements of his talk have been widely reported, following an article in the UK's Independent newspaper. (Please find copies of this and subsequent articles attached.)

The substance of our concerns – and the basis for these media reports – is outlined in the attached 16-page document entitled Arctic Methane Alert. To summarise:

• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and increased warming of the Arctic seas threaten methane hydrate instability and a massive catastrophic release of methane into the atmosphere, as noted in IPCC AR4.

• Research published by N. Shakhova* shows that methane is already venting into the atmosphere from seabed methane hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic shelf, or ESAS (the world's largest continental shelf), which, if allowed to escalate, would likely lead to abrupt and catastrophic global warming.

• The latest research expedition to the region (September/October 2011), according to Professor I. Semiletov, witnessed methane plumes on a "fantastic scale," "some one kilometer in diameter," "far greater" than previous observations, which were officially reported in 2010 to equal methane emissions from all the other oceans put together.

• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and subsequent increased Arctic surface warming will inevitably increase the rate of methane emissions already being released from Arctic wetlands and thawing permafrost.

• The latest available data indicates there is a 5-10% possibility of the Arctic being ice free in September by 2013, more likely 2015, and with 95% confidence by 2018. This, according to the recognised world authorities on Arctic sea ice, Prof. Wadhams and Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski, is the point of no return for summer sea ice. Once past this point, it could prove impossible to reverse the retreat by any kind of intervention. The data indicate the Arctic could be ice free for six months of the year by 2020 (PIOMAS 2011)."

http://www.arctic-me...ders/4558749249

Ken Caldeira, Professor of Environmental Earth System Sciences, Stanford University, US;

Ed Dlugokencky, PhD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US;

Michel Halbwachs, Professor of Physics, University of Savoie, France;

Veli Albert Kallio, Chairman of the Frozen Isthmuses’ Protection Campaign, UK/Finland;

Jon Egill Kristjansson, Professor of meteorology, Oslo University, Norway;

Mike MacCracken, PhD, Climate Institute, Washington, US;

David Mitchell, Associate Research Professor, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, DRI, US;

Brian Orr, PhD, former Principle Scientific Officer, Department of the Environment

Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering at Edinburgh University, UK;

Natalia Shakhova, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;

Igor Semiletov, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;

Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge University, UK;

Leonid Yurganov, PhD, Dept of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada.

Skier, if you are going to accuse someone of "a complete lie", at least have something to back it up. Are you accusing these guys of making up a complete lie and sending it off to world leaders?

[blue sky]

Over 4.5 Billion people could die from Global Warming-related causes by 2012

http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2007/01/08/01291.html

People pushing the chicken little theories destroy AGW crediability..

[salbers]

"Losing the Arctic summer sea ice will accelerate the already rapid rate of Arctic warming, which will increase the rate of methane being emitted by the warming Arctic.

This emergency situation for survival

must go straight to the top of the global climate change agenda."

http://www.arctic-me...ncy-group.org/#

"Professor Peter Wadhams, on behalf of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, spoke about this critical issue at the December 2011 American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference in San Francisco, USA. Key elements of his talk have been widely reported, following an article in the UK's Independent newspaper. (Please find copies of this and subsequent articles attached.)

The substance of our concerns – and the basis for these media reports – is outlined in the attached 16-page document entitled Arctic Methane Alert. To summarise:

• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and increased warming of the Arctic seas threaten methane hydrate instability and a massive catastrophic release of methane into the atmosphere, as noted in IPCC AR4.

• Research published by N. Shakhova* shows that methane is already venting into the atmosphere from seabed methane hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic shelf, or ESAS (the world's largest continental shelf), which, if allowed to escalate, would likely lead to abrupt and catastrophic global warming.

• The latest research expedition to the region (September/October 2011), according to Professor I. Semiletov, witnessed methane plumes on a "fantastic scale," "some one kilometer in diameter," "far greater" than previous observations, which were officially reported in 2010 to equal methane emissions from all the other oceans put together.

• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and subsequent increased Arctic surface warming will inevitably increase the rate of methane emissions already being released from Arctic wetlands and thawing permafrost.

• The latest available data indicates there is a 5-10% possibility of the Arctic being ice free in September by 2013, more likely 2015, and with 95% confidence by 2018. This, according to the recognised world authorities on Arctic sea ice, Prof. Wadhams and Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski, is the point of no return for summer sea ice. Once past this point, it could prove impossible to reverse the retreat by any kind of intervention. The data indicate the Arctic could be ice free for six months of the year by 2020 (PIOMAS 2011)."

http://www.arctic-me...ders/4558749249

Ken Caldeira, Professor of Environmental Earth System Sciences, Stanford University, US;

Ed Dlugokencky, PhD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US;

Michel Halbwachs, Professor of Physics, University of Savoie, France;

Veli Albert Kallio, Chairman of the Frozen Isthmuses’ Protection Campaign, UK/Finland;

Jon Egill Kristjansson, Professor of meteorology, Oslo University, Norway;

Mike MacCracken, PhD, Climate Institute, Washington, US;

David Mitchell, Associate Research Professor, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, DRI, US;

Brian Orr, PhD, former Principle Scientific Officer, Department of the Environment

Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering at Edinburgh University, UK;

Natalia Shakhova, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;

Igor Semiletov, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;

Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge University, UK;

Leonid Yurganov, PhD, Dept of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada.

Skier, if you are going to accuse someone of "a complete lie", at least have something to back it up. Are you accusing these guys of making up a complete lie and sending it off to world leaders?

Yes, here is a related poster that summarizes some of these issues:

http://eposters.agu....12/Poster-2.pdf

[TerryM]

ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/ARCTpolar2006.11._AIRS_CH4_400.jpg

ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/ARCTpolar2008.11._AIRS_CH4_400.jpg

ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/ARCTpolar2011.11._AIRS_CH4_400.jpg

Perhaps someone more familiar than I at shrinking images can post these.

They show Northern Hemisphere CH4 for November in 2006, 2008 and 2011

[salbers]

Yes, that agrees with the eposter about Arctic CH4 levels rising quite a bit in the past 5 years.

I also see a trend in the AIRS data at latitudes around 60N where there's more rise over land rather than over the ocean. Perhaps related to soil/vegetation release?

[Vergent]

ftp://asl.umbc.edu/p...IRS_CH4_400.jpg

ftp://asl.umbc.edu/p...IRS_CH4_400.jpg

ftp://asl.umbc.edu/p...IRS_CH4_400.jpg

Perhaps someone more familiar than I at shrinking images can post these.

They show Northern Hemisphere CH4 for November in 2006, 2008 and 2011

Wow, what a find compare 2010 with 2011

ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/ARCTpolar2010.11._AIRS_CH4_400.jpg

looks like he will need to change the scalebar soon.

[TerryM]

The progression through the months is also interesting, and not what I would have expected, Far more emissions during colder months. Could solar influences on methane chomping algae be having an influence?

[Vergent]

The progression through the months is also interesting, and not what I would have expected, Far more emissions during colder months. Could solar influences on methane chomping algae be having an influence?

The emission rate probably does not increase in winter, rather, the solar induced oxidation masks the summer emission rate. The warmer temperatures would also effect the metabolic rate of bacteria.

[BethesdaWX]

This thread is an alarmist disaster. Come on.

[Vergent]

This thread is an alarmist disaster. Come on.

links please!

[The_Global_Warmer]

This thread is an alarmist disaster. Come on.

This thread is actually filled with a ton of information with tons of legit science backup. Everyone participitating has learned who chooses to learn in many ways about CH4 in this thread. Where it comes from, how strong it is, how the measuring process works, how much is there out there?, how legit the threat is, upper atmospheric charts and methane analysis, what are the wind patterns that carry CH4 as well as other GHGS throught the atmosphere, why did methane stop rising for a while, why is it rising again, how long has it been rising, how far back does the rising go, what are the implications of this, does the sea ice reduction play a role, how much of a role does solar insolation play, will we see more of this in 2012, 13, 14?

I can go on and on. This thread is loaded with incredible amounts of information so either you already know all of it which is doubtful, or your not in the thread to learn it.

[Vergent]

This thread is actually filled with a ton of information with tons of legit science backup. Everyone participitating has learned who chooses to learn in many ways about CH4 in this thread. Where it comes from, how strong it is, how the measuring process works, how much is there out there?, how legit the threat is, upper atmospheric charts and methane analysis, what are the wind patterns that carry CH4 as well as other GHGS throught the atmosphere, why did methane stop rising for a while, why is it rising again, how long has it been rising, how far back does the rising go, what are the implications of this, does the sea ice reduction play a role, how much of a role does solar insolation play, will we see more of this in 2012, 13, 14?

I can go on and on. This thread is loaded with incredible amounts of information so either you already know all of it which is doubtful, or your not in the thread to learn it.

Yes everyone is learning, most of all me, and even salbers, who works in the building where the data is prossed. The skeptics have contributed, Marietta, your nagging drove us to find more facts and data. Thank you!

[BethesdaWX]

This thread is actually filled with a ton of information with tons of legit science backup. Everyone participitating has learned who chooses to learn in many ways about CH4 in this thread. Where it comes from, how strong it is, how the measuring process works, how much is there out there?, how legit the threat is, upper atmospheric charts and methane analysis, what are the wind patterns that carry CH4 as well as other GHGS throught the atmosphere, why did methane stop rising for a while, why is it rising again, how long has it been rising, how far back does the rising go, what are the implications of this, does the sea ice reduction play a role, how much of a role does solar insolation play, will we see more of this in 2012, 13, 14?

I can go on and on. This thread is loaded with incredible amounts of information so either you already know all of it which is doubtful, or your not in the thread to learn it.

I never denied it was full of good info...good info that was posted to refute nonfactual claims that also ruined my UAH thread. Those who originally posted the good info in this thread were bashed and ridiculed, for doing good research and thinking rationally and objectively..

This happens here quite alot, it is somewhat irritating.

[Bannor]

"Losing the Arctic summer sea ice will accelerate the already rapid rate of Arctic warming, which will increase the rate of methane being emitted by the warming Arctic.

This emergency situation for survival

must go straight to the top of the global climate change agenda."

http://www.arctic-me...ncy-group.org/#

"Professor Peter Wadhams, on behalf of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, spoke about this critical issue at the December 2011 American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference in San Francisco, USA. Key elements of his talk have been widely reported, following an article in the UK's Independent newspaper. (Please find copies of this and subsequent articles attached.)

The substance of our concerns – and the basis for these media reports – is outlined in the attached 16-page document entitled Arctic Methane Alert. To summarise:

• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and increased warming of the Arctic seas threaten methane hydrate instability and a massive catastrophic release of methane into the atmosphere, as noted in IPCC AR4.

• Research published by N. Shakhova* shows that methane is already venting into the atmosphere from seabed methane hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic shelf, or ESAS (the world's largest continental shelf), which, if allowed to escalate, would likely lead to abrupt and catastrophic global warming.

• The latest research expedition to the region (September/October 2011), according to Professor I. Semiletov, witnessed methane plumes on a "fantastic scale," "some one kilometer in diameter," "far greater" than previous observations, which were officially reported in 2010 to equal methane emissions from all the other oceans put together.

• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and subsequent increased Arctic surface warming will inevitably increase the rate of methane emissions already being released from Arctic wetlands and thawing permafrost.

• The latest available data indicates there is a 5-10% possibility of the Arctic being ice free in September by 2013, more likely 2015, and with 95% confidence by 2018. This, according to the recognised world authorities on Arctic sea ice, Prof. Wadhams and Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski, is the point of no return for summer sea ice. Once past this point, it could prove impossible to reverse the retreat by any kind of intervention. The data indicate the Arctic could be ice free for six months of the year by 2020 (PIOMAS 2011)."

http://www.arctic-me...ders/4558749249

Ken Caldeira, Professor of Environmental Earth System Sciences, Stanford University, US;

Ed Dlugokencky, PhD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US;

Michel Halbwachs, Professor of Physics, University of Savoie, France;

Veli Albert Kallio, Chairman of the Frozen Isthmuses’ Protection Campaign, UK/Finland;

Jon Egill Kristjansson, Professor of meteorology, Oslo University, Norway;

Mike MacCracken, PhD, Climate Institute, Washington, US;

David Mitchell, Associate Research Professor, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, DRI, US;

Brian Orr, PhD, former Principle Scientific Officer, Department of the Environment

Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering at Edinburgh University, UK;

Natalia Shakhova, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;

Igor Semiletov, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;

Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge University, UK;

Leonid Yurganov, PhD, Dept of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada.

Skier, if you are going to accuse someone of "a complete lie", at least have something to back it up. Are you accusing these guys of making up a complete lie and sending it off to world leaders?

Vergent,

In the way you presented this comment and your concluding sentence directed at Skier, you are implying that the scientists you listed were effectively signatories to the AMEG's position statement.

However this isn't at all clear from the acknowledgements on the AMEG site. You omitted a crucial part (highlighted):

So, advice was sought and obtained from these individuals, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they fully support the AMEG's objectives and share the same concerns.

Is there another page on the site that I've missed where it makes it clear that all these scientists are members of the AMEG?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Peter Wadhams spends a lot of time in the arctic and is well repsected. I was suprised to see him on the list even though he does think the ice will possibly melt out between 2015-2020. But he didn't believe that until he went back to the arctic recently during the summer and saw the state of the ice himself.

[Vergent]

Vergent,

In the way you presented this comment and your concluding sentence directed at Skier, you are implying that the scientists you listed were effectively signatories to the AMEG's position statement.

However this isn't at all clear from the acknowledgements on the AMEG site. You omitted a crucial part (highlighted):

So, advice was sought and obtained from these individuals, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they fully support the AMEG's objectives and share the same concerns.

Is there another page on the site that I've missed where it makes it clear that all these scientists are members of the AMEG?

My bad, I should have pasted this from the same page:

At the end of the Arctic Methane Workshop held in Chiswick, London W4, on the weekend of 15-16 October, 2011, a position statement on the Arctic methane emergency, proposed by the chairman, John Nissen, was agreed by the following:

Graham Ennis Doly Garcia Jon Hughes Veli Albert Kallio Graham Knight Dr Brian Orr Professor Stephen Salter Professor Peter Wadhams

Working group team producing the report, distributed as a brochure at the American Geopysical Union conference December 2011:

Sam Carana, writer blogger and editor at geo-engineering.blogspot.com

Peter D Carter, MD, US Canada;

Anthony Cook, science educator, International School of Ulaanbaatar,MN

Graham Ennis, former aerospace engineer, UK;

Gary Houser, documentary producer, US;

Jon Hughes, ex-editor Ecologist, UK;

John Nissen, MA, chairman of the working group, UK.

[salbers]

I never denied it was full of good info...good info that was posted to refute nonfactual claims that also ruined my UAH thread. Those who originally posted the good info in this thread were bashed and ridiculed, for doing good research and thinking rationally and objectively..

This happens here quite alot, it is somewhat irritating.

The degree of alarmism is in the eye of the beholder. It is stated on that Methane alert site that the amount being released is still relatively small on a climate forcing basis, though it has increased by about 1/3 in the Arctic region in recent years. The question is what is the probability this increase will continue, and even accelerate on a geometric basis as the rapid warming continues?

On another note, perhaps we need more methane monitoring stations in Siberia and other permafrost areas.

[Vergent]

Their report can be viewed here:

http://www.flipdocs.com/showbook.aspx?ID=10004692_698290

[salbers]

Here is a U.S. Government report from 2008 on methane emissions. It says we have 1000 years before this is a big factor, though I wonder what they would say if the report were updated with the latest data.

http://downloads.cli...-report-ch5.pdf

There also seems to be enough uncertainty so that at least some noticeable climate impact would be possible during this century.

[Vergent]

Here is a U.S. Government report from 2008 on methane emissions. It says we have 1000 years before this is a big factor, though I wonder what they would say if the report were updated with the latest data.

http://downloads.cli...-report-ch5.pdf

There also seems to be enough uncertainty so that at least some noticeable climate impact would be possible during this century.

A little out of date.

"Observations show that there have not yet been significant increases in methane emissions from northern

terrestrial high-latitude hydrates and wetlands resulting from increasing Arctic temperatures."

Somehow I think hundreds of fountains of methane a kilometer across is a game changer. What has been described seems to be an increase over last years observations, on the order of 3-4 orders of magnitude. We are in uncharted territory. We have no idea how many more orders of magnitude we will get next year.

http://www.sciencema...5970/1246.short

Observation trumps theory.

[salbers]

Yes I think I had noticed that line too and it might have been correct in 2008. When we say 3-4 orders of magnitude though, over what region are we talking about? The Arctic emissions overall are something like 10-20% of the total global emissions, and that is what supposedly increased by 1/3 on the link at the methane alert site. Here is a wikipedia page that breaks down the various emissions. It would be interesting to try to put some numbers on how these components are changing.

http://en.wikipedia....spheric_methane

Here's a quote from the paper in the previous post:

............................................................................................................................................................

The annual outgassing from the shallow ESAS of Tg C-CH₄ is of the same magnitude as existing estimates of total CH₄ emissions from the entire world ocean (1, 25). Although the oceanic CH₄ flux should be revised, the current estimate is not alarmingly altering the contemporary global CH₄ budget. These findings do change our view of the vulnerability of the large sub-sea permafrost carbon reservoir on the ESAS; the permafrost “lid” is clearly perforated, and sedimentary CH₄ is escaping to the atmosphere.

.........................................................................................................................................................

So that is about 8Tg per year from the ESAS, compared ot about 600Tg per year of global emissions (unless the units are actually different - Tg of Carbon vs. CH4). So we do have 1-2 orders of magnitude to go before this becomes globally significant. The question is how fast will this emission grow?

[Vergent]

Yes I think I had noticed that line too and it might have been correct in 2008. When we say 3-4 orders of magnitude though, over what region are we talking about? The Arctic emissions overall are something like 10-20% of the total global emissions, and that is what supposedly increased by 1/3 on the link at the methane alert site. Here is a wikipedia page that breaks down the various emissions. It would be interesting to try to put some numbers on how these components are changing.

http://en.wikipedia....spheric_methane

The East Siberian Sea, They were only able to cover 10,000km^2 of it.

The methane vents went from "tens of meters in diameter" to "more than a kilometer in diameter" They also reportedly increased in number and intensity. A fifty fold increase in diameter is a 2,500X increase in area. more than three and less than four orders of magnatude. When the report comes out in the spring we will have better numbers.

[Vergent]

Yes I think I had noticed that line too and it might have been correct in 2008. When we say 3-4 orders of magnitude though, over what region are we talking about? The Arctic emissions overall are something like 10-20% of the total global emissions, and that is what supposedly increased by 1/3 on the link at the methane alert site. Here is a wikipedia page that breaks down the various emissions. It would be interesting to try to put some numbers on how these components are changing.

http://en.wikipedia....spheric_methane

Here's a quote from the paper in the previous post:

............................................................................................................................................................

The annual outgassing from the shallow ESAS of Tg C-CH₄ is of the same magnitude as existing estimates of total CH₄ emissions from the entire world ocean (1, 25). Although the oceanic CH₄ flux should be revised, the current estimate is not alarmingly altering the contemporary global CH₄ budget. These findings do change our view of the vulnerability of the large sub-sea permafrost carbon reservoir on the ESAS; the permafrost “lid” is clearly perforated, and sedimentary CH₄ is escaping to the atmosphere.

.........................................................................................................................................................

So that is about 8Tg per year from the ESAS, compared ot about 600Tg per year of global emissions (unless the units are actually different - Tg of Carbon vs. CH4). So we do have 1-2 orders of magnitude to go before this becomes globally significant. The question is how fast will this emission grow?

Yes, that was 2010. From his description of what he found last fall(2009), we have blown right past those 1-2 orders of magnitude.

[salbers]

That will be interesting to track. I think the total amount of methane in the atmosphere is about 5000 Tg (teragrams) or 5 gigatons.

By the way here is the 2011 AGU abstract. I was at this conference, though I didn't know ahead of time to check out this poster. I wonder if the poster is available online somewhere, beyond the "brochure" we've seen?

...................................................................................................................................................

AGU Fall Meeting THURSDAY, DECEMBER 08, 2011

GC41B-0794.

Ebullition-driven fluxes of methane from shallow hot spots suggest significant under-estimation of annual emission from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf

Natalia E. Shakhova; Igor P. Semiletov; Anatoly Salyuk; Chris Stubbs; Denis Kosmach; Orjan Gustafsson

ABSTRACT FINAL ID

: GC41B-0794

TITLE

: Ebullition-driven fluxes of methane from shallow hot spots suggest significant under-estimation of annual emission from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf

SESSION TYPE

: Poster

SESSION TITLE

: GC41B. Permafrost and Methane: Monitoring and Modeling Fluxes of Water and Methane Associated With Arctic Changing Permafrost and Coastal Regiona I Posters

AUTHORS (FIRST NAME, LAST NAME)

: Natalia E Shakhova1, 2, Igor Peter Semiletov1, 2, Anatoly Salyuk2, Chris Stubbs3, Denis Kosmach2, Orjan Gustafsson4

INSTITUTIONS (ALL)

:

1. IARC, Univerrsity Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States.

2. Laboratory of Arctic Research, Pacific Oceanological Institute FEBRAS, Vladivostok, Russian Federation.

3. University of California, Marine Science Institute, Santa Barbara, CA, United States.

4. Institute of Applied Environmental Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.

Title of Team:

ABSTRACT BODY

: The high-latitude, shallow ESAS has been alternately subaerial and inundated with seawater during glacial and interglacial periods respectively. Subaerial conditions foster the formation of permafrost and associated hydrate deposits whereas inundation with relatively warm seawater destabilizes the permafrost and hydrates. Our measurements of CH4 in 1994-2000 and 2003-2010 over ESAS demonstrate the system to be in a destabilization period. First estimates of ESAS methane emissions indicated the current atmospheric budget, which arises from gradual diffusion and ebullition, was on par with estimates of methane emissions from the entire World Ocean (≈8 Tg-CH4). Large transient emissions remained to be assessed; yet initial data suggested that component could increase significantly annual emissions. New data obtained in 2008-2010 show that contribution of ebullition-driven CH4 fluxes from shallow hot spots alone could multiply previously reported annual emission from the entire ESAS.

KEYWORDS

: [0330] ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE / Geochemical cycles, [0312] ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE / Air/sea constituent fluxes, [0428] BIOGEOSCIENCES / Carbon cycling, [4219] OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL / Continental shelf and slope processes.

SPONSOR NAME

: Natalia Shakhova

[The_Global_Warmer]

2012 is clearly to play a huge role. The ESAS will go ice free to very thin again. I hope they are prepared to moniter it

[salbers]

I think the "brochure" poster may be different from what was presented in the regular poster session at AGU. The title and author list are different. They are both related in subject matter though. One is more geared to the public, while the other abstract is geared more towards a scientific audience. It would be interesting if we can find a copy of the more scientific one (if they are in fact separate). I looked on the AGU eposter site and it wasn't there. Can it be found somewhere else?

I did find this informative presentation from Nov 2010 by the same authors:

http://www.google.co...e7ONJrQdh4-r8Sw

In this presentation are they saying we're already above the 8Tg per year emission by orders of magnitude? I think the observed uptick in the global CH4 concentration over the past few years is roughly consistent with an 8Tg per year emission rate, not yet higher than that. This is a fairly simple calculation to make if we wanted to pin it down more.

[Fujiwara Effect]

you might have seen this --

Look Mom the planets fracking? But hey, don't worry be happy