This is not good.

[dabize]

Between the myi and perpetuall blow torch. 2012 in the arctic will see the russian side melt out again. likely assuring more and more clathrates to repeat and do more.

If we get an pattern like now look out.

Remember in middle sept when I said the Ice was very thin and we saw Ice retreat 100 miles in 3 days with good winds, not great.

The Ice along the kara, esb, laptev, and barents will be .50 to 2m thick at best.

Solar insolation starts back up around 78N in late Feb.

Gonna be an interesting spring.

Yup.

The most interesting place on the ice map right now is that area south of Novaya Zemlya in the West Kara Sea.

The Ob'/Irtysh system is dumping all sorts of organic matter from millions of hectares of thawing permafrost in West Siberia - like the Lena is in the Laptev.

But the West Kara also has the Atlantic influx to keep it warm, and it is just starting to freeze now.

If I had the time, I'd start a Hudson Bay like poll and watch thread to see when the West Kara freezes over, and (as you said) when it thaws again in the Spring.

[Vergent]

What if "thy neighbor" has 2 Hummers and a 10,000sq. ft. home??? And if they love you just enough to take the bus into work a couple times a week....will he/she be vindicated of their environmental crimes in your eyes, because they indeed have "sacrificed" to an extent? Questions to ponder.....

I just meant that we need to be less concerned about ourselves and more concerned about others. I saw a "so what" posting in response to some very poor people loosing their homes to rising sea level.

I do not think the political will and the money to deal with the problem effectively, until something bad happens. Exxon, the Koch brothers and Rush have run an effective propaganda campaign.

We are loosing the battlefield of public opinion.

[Vergent]

Back on topic:some interesting reading:

"Fossil fuels are a common source of both ethane and methane. Methane has many other sources, but we know most of the ethane in the atmosphere today is from fossil fuels. If ethane changes, it is easier to figure out the cause" said Aydin. "After carbon dioxide, methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. This research was conducted to track ethane and to see what it could tell us about methane. We found that ethane emissions declined at the same time as the rise in methane dramatically slowed, suggesting a common cause." At the end of the 20th century, methane and ethane were deemed valuable energy resources; collected and consumed as natural gas they are converted to carbon dioxide. The researchers' results for this time frame indicate that the leveling off in atmospheric methane in recent years is likely linked to this change in energy use.

http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=121363

An abrupt release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, from ice sheets that extended to Earth's low latitudes some 635 million years ago caused a dramatic shift in climate, scientists funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) report in this week's issue of the journal Nature.

The shift triggered events that resulted in global warming and an ending of the last "snowball" ice age.

The researchers believe that the methane was released gradually at first and then very quickly from clathrates--methane ice that forms and stabilizes beneath ice sheets.

http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=111554&org=EAR&from=news

[superjames1992]

1. Declare global war on GHG.
   
2. Invest in sustainable energy: solar, wind, wave, ethanol, hydrogen, geothermal(this will kick the world economy into high gear as a secondary effect.) then:
   
3. stop mining and pumping fossil fuels.
   
4. Go back to returnable reusable bottles, compost able packaging.
   
5. Build durable(1,000+ yr) infrastructure(like the Romans did. Some of their aquiducts, roads bridges, sewers, and buildings are still in use.).
   
6. Use bicycles and walking for routine, local, travel.
   
7. Replant the forests.
   
8. Invest in research in sustainable farming and living.
   
9. Stop dumping chemicals into the environment.
   
10. Stop human population growth through education and economic incentives.
    
11. Back off from the natural world. Have a smaller footprint.
    
12. Love thy neighbor as thyself.
    

That would be a reasonable start. Its a twelve step program for fossil fuel addiction.

These are all great, but very idealistic in nature. How do you plan on getting everyone to comply by these 12 rules? Also, there is no way China, India, and other developing countries would comply with these regulations, so it is really pretty hopeless for the time being. It is what it is and I don't think CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is going to decline unless the global economy melts down.

[Vergent]

These are all great, but very idealistic in nature. How do you plan on getting everyone to comply by these 12 rules? Also, there is no way China, India, and other developing countries would comply with these regulations, so it is really pretty hopeless for the time being. It is what it is and I don't think CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is going to decline unless the global economy melts down.

The global will will not be there until we get alarmed, shocked, and frightened by an actual threat. An ice free arctic in late summer might do the trick. That will be the climate change Pearl Harbor. After the holidays I am going to start a new topic about this.

[superjames1992]

The global will will not be there until we get alarmed, shocked, and frightened by an actual threat. An ice free arctic in late summer might do the trick. That will be the climate change Pearl Harbor. After the holidays I am going to start a new topic about this.

Yeah, but even that is not going to affect anyone outside of the arctic, at least initially.

I have tremendous doubts that the developing world is going to eschew progress in favor of environmental sustainability. They just look at it as a way for the first-world to keep the developing world from developing.

[Vergent]

An Arctic methane emergency group has been formed, and has set up a web site.

http://www.arctic-me...bout/4558060537

"Letter to the worlds leaders"

"Emergency intervention to stabilize Arctic sea ice and thereby Arctic methane is today a matter of our survival."

http://www.arctic-me...ders/4558749249

Ken Caldeira, Professor of Environmental Earth System Sciences, Stanford University, US;

Ed Dlugokencky, PhD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US;

Michel Halbwachs, Professor of Physics, University of Savoie, France;

Veli Albert Kallio, Chairman of the Frozen Isthmuses’ Protection Campaign, UK/Finland;

Jon Egill Kristjansson, Professor of meteorology, Oslo University, Norway;

Mike MacCracken, PhD, Climate Institute, Washington, US;

David Mitchell, Associate Research Professor, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, DRI, US;

Brian Orr, PhD, former Principle Scientific Officer, Department of the Environment

Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering at Edinburgh University, UK;

Natalia Shakhova, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;

Igor Semiletov, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US;

Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge University, UK;

Leonid Yurganov, PhD, Dept of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada.

[The_Global_Warmer]

An Arctic methane emergency group has been formed, and has set up a web site.

http://www.arctic-me...bout/4558060537

"Letter to the worlds leaders"

"Emergency intervention to stabilize Arctic sea ice and thereby Arctic methane is today a matter of our survival."

http://www.arctic-me...ders/4558749249

They will be cast off as crazies. Even if what they believe happens.

[Vergent]

They will be cast off as crazies. Even if what they believe happens.

Unless they are lying, it is already happening.

They know that, you have to admire their courage. You also have to to believe that they are scared, more for the planet than for their jobs and reputation.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Unless they are lying, it is already happening.

They know that, you have to admire their courage. You also have to to believe that they are scared, more for the planet than for their jobs and reputation.

I do, they are involved in something with deep knowledge of it and that knowledge tells them the Earth is in some big trouble. This is backed by mainstream science.

This is matter of how much methane so we can figure out how screwed, if at all we are. Not a matter of if methane warms the atmosphere.

This is true, but will likely be far over-looked by to many folks. Who will cast them as kooks. If we see the ice loss increase/ROW rate of warming increase more in the arctic summers/winters coming up, it won't matter, there fears will get much more light as methane keeps pouring out, unless they are just wrong about all of this. Which I am sure many at this point are choosing to believe over reality. As I write this the MYI is getting flushed even more. We really need a pattern change before we end up going into next summer with hardly any MYI ice left in the basin. We are virtually guarenteed at this point even with a favorable pattern for less ice loss that we will reach 5.0 mil km2 or lower leaving the Russian side totally ice free again for methane clathrates to melt some more.

The Euro develops a stout Dipole Anomaly this week, adding to the already bad conditions in the arctic for the ice.

Some of that is being compacted causing ridging along the Canadian Basin. This is devoiding almost all of the Russian seas of any old ice. leaving only FYI, but maybe will help cause some thick ice to develop threw ridging in the CA Islands area. This still doesn't help the Atlantic side where ice is being slammed out the arctic with relentless 20-40KT winds week after week.

[TerryM]

Interesting that both Semiletov & Shakhova are on board.

As an aside, when clathrates dissolve a huge amount of fresh water is released along with the methane (tracking fresh water plumes is a method used to locate clathrate deposits at risk), the SSS daily charts show a salinity in the ESAS only matched at the southern end of James Bay, which is at best slightly brackish.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Interesting that both Semiletov & Shakhova are on board.

As an aside, when clathrates dissolve a huge amount of fresh water is released along with the methane (tracking fresh water plumes is a method used to locate clathrate deposits at risk), the SSS daily charts show a salinity in the ESAS only matched at the southern end of James Bay, which is at best slightly brackish.

Hey Terry.

the graph you posted is from modeled data. I would be weary of using it.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=75657

That is from a live active buoy that is working 100% correct with no hang ups.

this shows current salinity at:

Last position on 2011/12/25 230033 UTC : 75.0958° N, 138.2419° W

that is quite a bit lower than the modeled data. That looks prety high for a frozen arctic at the surface.

So I am not sure how much credence I would give that graph.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=75676

that one is around 77N and 132W that shows closer to 25. So the graph from the Navy looks like it's way over done.

[TerryM]

The Navy stuff is certainly suspect, followed it in the winter to get flow patterns as opposed to specific data - but the readings you are getting are even lower than theirs. My point was that most of the ESAS is off the charts & that this could be an indication of clathrates breaking up there as we speak.

BTW any idea how they are getting SSS data after freeze up?

[Vergent]

The Navy stuff is certainly suspect, followed it in the winter to get flow patterns as opposed to specific data - but the readings you are getting are even lower than theirs. My point was that most of the ESAS is off the charts & that this could be an indication of clathrates breaking up there as we speak.

BTW any idea how they are getting SSS data after freeze up?

The data assimilation is performed using the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) (Cummings, 2005) system with a model forecast as the first guess. NCODA assimilates available satellite altimeter observations (along track obtained via the NAVOCEANO Altimeter Data Fusion Center), satellite ice concentration, satellite and in situ SST as well as available in situ vertical temperature and salinity profiles from XBTs, Argo floats and moored buoys using a 3-Dimensional VARiational analysis (3DVAR) scheme. For more information about the validation of the ACNFS, see (Posey, et al., 2010). For more information concerning the models see the links below:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/prologue.html

"The ocean model temperature and salinity fields are loosely constrained

(Sarmiento and Bryan, 1982) to the Levitus (1982) climatological data set."

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs/2010/posey1-2010.pdf

[TerryM]

Wow - Thanks!!

[Jonger]

The methane is in the sea floor. I am not sure what you meant there.

It is traped there.

Under pressure and lowertemps.

Unless the the sea ice regenerates the clathrates will break down and methane will continue to pour out at an accelerated rate with likely major releases that will have larger impacts on our climate.

As far as the billions of gigatons of methane being from plants that used to be there. Do you hace any thing to back this?

Where else do you believe the methane deposits came from? The earth is in a cool period right now and thats the only reason we even have ice caps.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Where else do you believe the methane deposits came from? The earth is in a cool period right now and thats the only reason we even have ice caps.

I have no idea Thats why I am asking you. You made a claim. I have no idea I your claim is valid. I asked if you have anyway to back your claim so I can learn more about this.

[Vergent]

Where else do you believe the methane deposits came from? The earth is in a cool period right now and thats the only reason we even have ice caps.

It comes from natural gas deposits. Here in California we have natural gas seepage all over the place. The seepage is generally slow and constant. With a short half life in the air slow seepage is not a big problem. The problem comes when thousands of years of seepage is stored near the surface as a hydrate and becomes unstable causing a rapid, high volume release.

[blue sky]

"Retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas."

Retreating Sea Ice has nothing to do with releasing methane. If you think otherwise...explain how sea ice contains the Methane. This headline should make a thinking person think. "deadly greenhouse gas" These sort of headlines and "studies" really hurt the crediability of those that think this is legit.

A link to a respectable site that shows increasing methane in the Atmosphere would be a start. Previous surveys of methane release would be also needed.

[Vergent]

"Retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas."

Retreating Sea Ice has nothing to do with releasing methane. If you think otherwise...explain how sea ice contains the Methane. This headline should make a thinking person think. "deadly greenhouse gas" These sort of headlines and "studies" really hurt the crediability of those that think this is legit.

A link to a respectable site that shows increasing methane in the Atmosphere would be a start. Previous surveys of methane release would be also needed.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/334245/title/HIPPO_reveals_climate_surprises

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1246.abstract

[blue sky]

Flat or down for this year. doomsday cancel

[WeatherRusty]

"Retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas."

Retreating Sea Ice has nothing to do with releasing methane. If you think otherwise...explain how sea ice contains the Methane. This headline should make a thinking person think. "deadly greenhouse gas" These sort of headlines and "studies" really hurt the crediability of those that think this is legit.

A link to a respectable site that shows increasing methane in the Atmosphere would be a start. Previous surveys of methane release would be also needed.

It is frozen organic material, mostly from dead plants which lived long ago during warmer periods which is buried under layers of sediment on the sea floor. This material has decayed to form simpler carbon based molecules such as methane and ethane which when mixed with water under pressure and cold conditions forms the clathrates. If the pressure or cold is reduced sufficiently the methane contained by the clathrates will be released as a gas.

[LithiaWx]

http://www.esrl.noaa...am=ccgg&type=ts

http://www.sciencene...imate_surprises

http://www.sciencema...0/1246.abstract

Those ridiculous C4 anomalies are not showing up on any other locations. Why are you do hell bent on assuming the data is accurate when no other locations support a rise of over 20% in concentration. Cold Bay, AK, Nunavut, Canada and the location in Greenland do not show similar data.

[Alpha5]

1. Declare global war on GHG.
   
2. Invest in sustainable energy: solar, wind, wave, ethanol, hydrogen, geothermal(this will kick the world economy into high gear as a secondary effect.) then:
   
3. stop mining and pumping fossil fuels.
   
4. Go back to returnable reusable bottles, compost able packaging.
   
5. Build durable(1,000+ yr) infrastructure(like the Romans did. Some of their aquiducts, roads bridges, sewers, and buildings are still in use.).
   
6. Use bicycles and walking for routine, local, travel.
   
7. Replant the forests.
   
8. Invest in research in sustainable farming and living.
   
9. Stop dumping chemicals into the environment.
   
10. Stop human population growth through education and economic incentives.
    
11. Back off from the natural world. Have a smaller footprint.
    
12. Love thy neighbor as thyself.
    

That would be a reasonable start. Its a twelve step program for fossil fuel addiction.

Yes, but there are several inherent problems with doing this.

First, you have to take the extreme position that GHG and AGW are direct threats to the survival of the human species, and that there is simply no way for us to adapt to a warmer planet.

Secondly, in executing the 10 point plan you listed above, you begin to encroach on certain inalienable rights we have as American citizens (liberty, property, life, etc), which is why I view many people such as yourself as a threat to American society as we know it, and the reason people like Ron Paul are getting more popular.

[dabize]

Those ridiculous C4 anomalies are not showing up on any other locations. Why are you do hell bent on assuming the data is accurate when no other locations support a rise of over 20% in concentration. Cold Bay, AK, Nunavut, Canada and the location in Greenland do not show similar data.

Uhh check a map (not Mercator, please).

Barrow is closer to the ESAS than any other site.

[WeatherRusty]

Yes, but there are several inherent problems with doing this.

First, you have to take the extreme position that GHG and AGW are direct threats to the survival of the human species, and that there is simply no way for us to adapt to a warmer planet.

Secondly, in executing the 10 point plan you listed above, you begin to encroach on certain inalienable rights we have as American citizens (liberty, property, life, etc), which is why I view many people such as yourself as a threat to American society as we know it, and the reason people like Ron Paul are getting more popular.

Talk about an exaggeration. Geeezzzzz

Nothing less than the destruction of the human species warrants an attempt to mitigate climate disruption which we are responsible for?

To your second point, I thought this was about the science and not politics. So are you saying that for you it's mostly about politics, regardless of what the science is telling us?

[dabize]

The fact that C02 numbers are also significantly up at Barrow suggests to me that 1) it imay well be real, since CH4 is oxidized to CO2 and so should go up with CH4 levels in any nearby site after a local release....also multiple erroneous points don't seem to be common on the graphs of either CH4 or CO2.

[Vergent]

Those ridiculous C4 anomalies are not showing up on any other locations. Why are you do hell bent on assuming the data is accurate when no other locations support a rise of over 20% in concentration. Cold Bay, AK, Nunavut, Canada and the location in Greenland do not show similar data.

"When the AO index is positive, surface pressure is low in the polar region. This helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region."

http://en.wikipedia....tic_oscillation

This fall we had measurements from a surface vessel and a wide ranging aircraft survey.

The vessel measured "100 times normal", the aircraft:

"Something too new to fully understand (although a report on it is being prepared for publication), Wofsy says, is a finding of notable concentrations of methane in the Arctic’s atmosphere that trace back to the sea."

“We observed that the ocean surface releases methane to the atmosphere all over the whole of the Arctic Ocean,”

http://www.sciencene...imate_surprises

Now, these people will not get their data published until spring. So we should just ignore their warning? What do you want to talk about? 2009? We have lots of published data about that.

[TerryM]

Let's see. Some Russian ship captains got together and told Russian and American authorities the the sea was boiling, just because they thought it would be a funny story to tell. The Russian and American authorities organized an emergency expedition on a nuclear icebreaker taking the worlds leading experts on methane releases, because they could play a huge joke on American Citizens. When they returned the expedition leader warned the world that what they had witnessed was much worse than anything they had ever experienced because he wanted to be sent on another Arctic cruise. The Americans brought some cows to Barrow and had them belch into the flasks being sent in for testing so that Barrow would become a tourist destination.

Have I got it right?

[Jonger]

Let's see. Some Russian ship captains got together and told Russian and American authorities the the sea was boiling, just because they thought it would be a funny story to tell. The Russian and American authorities organized an emergency expedition on a nuclear icebreaker taking the worlds leading experts on methane releases, because they could play a huge joke on American Citizens. When they returned the expedition leader warned the world that what they had witnessed was much worse than anything they had ever experienced because he wanted to be sent on another Arctic cruise. The Americans brought some cows to Barrow and had them belch into the flasks being sent in for testing so that Barrow would become a tourist destination.

Have I got it right?

Wtf